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From: Tony Cristaldi (tony.cristaldi{at}noaa.gov)
Date: Fri Mar 26 2004 - 12:29:29 EST
Jesse and all,
This is the THIRD cyclone this year off the coast of Brazil that
could very well have been named. The previous two were in
mid January (fully tropical and of TS strength) and again in mid
March (possibly a subtropical storm). I strongly suspect that the
"conventional wisdom" that TC's rarely form in the south Atlantic
is only partially true: while they are rare, they probably are not
nearly as rare as originally thought.
Sure it's true that south Atlantic TC's do have a more difficult time
developing due to more hostile U/L conditions, coupled with the
fact that their version of the ITCZ is much weaker feature (called
by some the SACZ or South American Convergence Zone).
However, the extreme "rarity" of these systems is likely also a
function of the fact that up until recently (i.e the proliferation of
freely available satellite data on the internet) not too many folks:
a) were able to, and b) would even bother to look at these areas
for TC genesis...since "they never form there".
In essence, the "conventional wisdom" is part fact, and part self-
fulfilling prophecy.
b/r
Tony Cristaldi
NWS Melbourne
"Jesse Ferrell (WeatherMatrix) - Offsite" wrote:
> Breaking News:
>
> An apparent "hurricane", complete with an eye, is located off the coast of
> Brazil this morning. This event is more or less unprecedented -- most
> experts agree that "tropical-like" cylcones do not occur in the South Atlantic.
>
> AccuWeather.com's Joe Bastardi reports this morning: "UNHEARD OF EVENT -
> HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN BRAZIL!!!".
> http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/index.asp?partner=6037 (lower right)
>
> Here is an animated satellite:
> http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/int_sat_large.asp?sattype=ir&getarea=nsam&type=loop&partner=6037
>
> From the master government Tropical Cyclone FAQ at AOML:
> "Why doesn't the South Atlantic Ocean experience tropical cyclones?"
> http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G7.html
> NOTE: They do say that a strong tropical depression formed off the coast of
> the Congo in '91 -- but I bet it didn't have an eye :)
>
> From AccuWeather.com:
> "None ever occur in the South Atlantic"
> http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/hurricane/facts.asp?fact=trivia
>
> --
> ===================================================================
> Jesse Ferrell - Meteorologist / Webmaster / Founder - WeatherMatrix
> 7000 Weather Enthusiasts Can't Be Wrong! www.weathermatrix.net
>
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