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From: Thomas Giella KN4LF (kn4lf{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Fri Feb 13 2004 - 11:47:36 EST
Florida Daily Weather Discussion
#2004-009 Published Friday 02/13/2004 at 11:00 AM
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
Hey it's snowing this morning in the hill country of east Texas, from San Antonio through Austin to College Station. As the weekend progresses I would not be surprised to see the snow shield expand NE into northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and parts of North Carolina and Tidewater Virginia. Snowfall totals could be 2-4" with isolated totals of 5-6". Don't hold me to this outlook though as I don't know jack.
Also another bitterly cold mother lode of Arctic Air is sweeping SE across Canada. This is almost as cold as any Arctic air mass so far this season, with a core temperature at 850 mb around -50 deg. C. It will only graze the Great Lakes and New England regions, with the coldest air staying in Ontario, Quebec and eastward into New Brunswick, etc. Near and/or sub zero temperature readings are still expected though in inland areas of the regions.
This Arctic surge will end up in Europe before it's over. It's been a topsy turvy winter of extremes in Europe much like North America with huge temperature swings. Today it's snowing in Greece! A few days ago maximum temperatures approached +20 deg. C in France and Germany.
Now on to Florida for a hindcast.
My last post was on Saturday 02/07/04 so as has been the case lately first a review. Last Sunday 2/08/04 saw the coldest temperatures of the month so far, with 20's north, 30's central and 40's south. The cold spot was 27 deg. at Crestview, New Hope and DeFuniak Springs in the panhandle north region. Fort White was right behind with 28 deg. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 32 deg. at East Nobleton, with Holder right behind at 32.7 deg. Immokalee was the cold spot on the southern peninsula with 42 deg. Here in Plant City I saw 36 deg. with a wind chill of 29 deg.
Monday 02/09/04 began a warm up on the peninsula with maximum temperatures rebounding into the mid 70's to mid 80's with isolated rain showers and high humidity. With a strong SW-WSW mid level flow on the NW side of a strong nearby 591-594 dcm high pressure heat ridge, we have seen two weak cold fronts wash out on the peninsula. Across these boundaries we have seen huge temperature extremes between north and south. Some days have seen maximum temperatures in the 40's and 50's under cloudy skies with rain showers across the north, to the mid 80's across the southern peninsula.
Here in suburban SW Plant City yesterday afternoon I saw a maximum temperature of 83 deg., with a dewpoint of 65 deg., very close to late spring values. This morning's minimum temperature was a very balmy 65 deg. under foggy and cloudy skies.
Now a forecast.
Today Friday the 13th, YIKES, will be another day of temperature extremes in the state, as we have a stationary boundary (dying cold front) lying along the I-4 corridor of the central peninsula. We should see 50's and 60's for maximum temperatures north of the boundary and 70's and 80's south of the boundary.
Saturday 02/14/04 will see big weather changes again as another low latitude subtropical jet stream winter storm races across the Gulf Of Mexico towards Florida. We should a broken line of strong thunderstorms develop and move across the northern part of the state tomorrow morning and afternoon, making it into the central peninsula by the early evening and overnight hours and then the southern peninsula on Sunday 02/15/04. With an ETA and GFS-5 models progged 160+ mph jet max at 250 mb, 115+ mph jet max at 500 mb and a 50-70 mph SW jet at 850 mb, some storms "could" pulse up to severe levels.
On Sunday afternoon cooler weather arrives once again and continues through Tuesday 02/17/04. During the Tuesday-Wednesday 02/17-18/04 period another low latitude subtropical jet stream winter storm races across the Gulf Of Mexico towards Florida with more rain chances. Much colder weather returns for the Friday-Saturday 02/20-21/04 period.
With the SOI positive and the NAO headed back to negative, I still have concerns for the arrival of the coldest weather of the season in peninsula Florida sometime during the last 10 days of February 2004. It could be significant cold BUT not of Arctic origin. With the high pressure thumb block now gone east of the Caspian Sea region of Kazakhstan, there is no chance for cross polar flow of Siberian Arctic air into most of the U.S. for the foreseeable future.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
SKYWARN Observer HIL-249
SWFWMD Observer #574
Plant City, FL, USA
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
Plus Daily MF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer
NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
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