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From: Thomas Giella FMCI (fmciwx{at}hotmail.com)
Date: Fri Jan 24 2003 - 19:23:04 EST
2003 Florida Daily Weather Discussion
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
#2003-24 Published Friday 01/24/03 At 12:00 NOON EST
Well this morning we certainly saw the coldest minimum temperatures of the
winter season and the coldest since January 1996 across the north and
central regions of the state. Also once again the north and central regions
have seen the lowest observed dewpoints I can ever remember, of -5 to +10
deg. F and I have personal weather records back to 1950. The northern 2/3's
of the state also saw wind chills in the single digits and teens overnight,
as the cold air advected in.
Minimum temperatures across the north and central regions ended up
approximately 5 degrees warmer then I thought would occur and winds were
approximately 5 mph higher also. Remember once again, this is an educational
weather discussion site, not an operational weather forecasting site. Donate
some $$$ to this endeavour and I can give you a 48 hour minimum temperature
accuracy of +/- 1 deg. F.
Anyway why was it warmer? In order for a two or three day hard freeze,
advective then radiative to occur, the surface high pressure center
trajectory must be through NE Texas near Dallas, then SE-E along the Gulf
Coast near Houston, to the Florida panhandle and then central peninsula. As
the 500 mb longwave trough did not dig far enough south, due to a lack of
enough 500 mb shortwaves in number traversing it and digging it southward
enough, our bitter cold 1041 mb Arctic surface high pressure system is
currently over northern Mississppi instead of southern Mississippi. Due to
the northward displacement of the surface Arctic high pressure center, in
conjunction with the delay in the surface low pressure system bombing out
(very rapid strengthening) over the Carolina's, our strong cold air
advection (CAA) began approximately 6 hours later then expected, allowing
our minimum temperatures to be approximately 5 degrees warmer then I
expected.
Also due to the northward displacement of the surface Arctic high pressure
center, surface winds have become NNE-NE along the east coast of Florida,
setting up a lake affect snow situation and therefore the coast from Daytona
Beach to Melbourne Beach has been seeing snow falling from the skies. The
same thing happened along the west coast of Florida with the December 1989
100 year freeze.
The cold spot in the state this morning was 12 degrees in Graceville in the
NW panhandle. On the central peninsula East Nobleton was the cold spot with
16 deg. with Felda the cold spot on the southern peninsula with 27 deg. The
freeze line dipped deep into the inland southern peninsula into NW Dade
County, with the hard freeze line down to near S.R. 70 in inland areas.
Speaking of cold, at 12:00 noon the northern 1/3 of the state is still below
32 degrees with most of the central peninsula still in the mid 30's!!! Here
at my rural location of West Plant City, I observed 9.25 hours below 32 deg.
and 6 hours below 28 deg. and the strawberry fields are covered still
covered in thick ice at this noon hour. I'm already hearing reports of
35-95% of crop damage in the local area strawberry fields. Fortunately it
appears that the "new" heart of the citrus belt avoided any appreciable
damage, with only the northern fringes in Polk County being nipped.
Some selected minimum temperatures for 01/23/03.
The forecast was for "rural inland" areas of the state only.
Forecast Was- Around 10 deg. To Low Teens
Panhandle NW/North-
Bronson FAWN- MM
Chipley- 16
Crestview- 17
De Funiak Springs- 14
Graceville-12
Jay FAWN- 16
Madison- 16
Marianna- 15
Marianna FAWN- 16
Monticello-MM
Panama City- 20
Panama City Beach- 15
Perry- 19
Quincy- 16
Quincy FAWN- 16
Steinhatchee- 19
Tallahassee- 19
Tallahassee Canopy Oaks Elem- 13
Tallahassee Chiles HS- 13
Forecast Was- Low To Mid Teens
Non Panhandle North-
Bell- 20
Glen St. Mary- 18
Jacksonville- 19
Jasper- 16
Lake City- 18
Live Oak- MM
Live Oak FAWN- 18
Macclenny FAWN- 18
Middleburg- 19
Starke- MM
Forecast Was- Low To Mid Teens
North Peninsula-
Alachua FAWN- 18
Chiefland- MM
Cross City- 21
Gainesville- 20
Hastings- 22
Lake Butler- 19
Mayo- 18
Putnam Hall FAWN- 20
Forecast Was- Mid To Upper Teens
North Central Peninsula-
Apopka FAWN- 22
Avalon FAWN- 25
Brooksville NE FAWN- 23
Brooksville South AP- 25
Citra FAWN- 22
Daytona Beach- 26
East Nobleton- 18
Inverness- 23
The Villages- 23
Lady Lake- 23
Leesburg AP- 24 (Urban) Mount Plymouth- 20
Ocala- 21 (Suburban)
Ocklawaha FAWN- 23
Okahumpka FAWN- 24
Orlando Int- 27 (Suburban)
Orlando Ex AP- 28 (Urban)
Pierson FAWN- 23
Sanford- 27
Tavares FAWN- 25
Umatilla FAWN- 22
Forecast Was- Upper Teens To Low 20's
Central Peninsula-
Balm- 26
Bradenton FAWN- 28
Dover FAWN- 27
Kissimmee- 27
Lake Alfred- 27
Lakeland Linder AP- 24 (Suburban)
Melbourne AP- 29 (Urban)
Palm Bay- 28 (Suburban)
Plant City North (Knights Station)- 23
Plant City West- 25/22 Below 32 deg. 9.25 Hrs, Below 28 deg. 6 Hrs
Plant City Climate St.- 26 (Urban)
Ruskin NWS- 26 (Suburban)
San Antonio-20
Scottsmoor- 26
St. Leo- MM
St. Pete./Clearwater Int- 28 (Urban Coastal)
St. Pete. Albert Whitted AP- 30 (Urban Coastal)
Sarasota/Bradenton AP- 30 (Suburban)
Tampa Int- 27 (Urban Coastal)
MacDill AFB South Tampa- 26 (Urban Coastal)
East Tampa Vandenberg AP- 25 (Suburban)
Forecast Was- Mid 20's
South Central Peninsula-
Avon Park- 28
Archbold Bio St- 29
Brighton-29
Fort Pierce AP- 30
Fort Pierce FAWN- 30
Okeechobee- 29
Ona FAWN- 28
Venus- 25
Vero Beach- 31
Forecast Was- Upper 20's To Low 30's
Southern Peninsula/Northern Everglades-
Belle Glade FAWN- 34 (Lake Exposure)
Clewiston- 31
Devils Garden- 32
Punta Gorda- 28
Felda- 27
Fort Myers Reg- 37 (Urban)
Fort Myers Int- 32 (Suburban)
Moore Haven- 33
Immokalee FAWN- 31
LaBelle- 31
Naples- 34 (Urban)
Naples East- 33 (Suburban)
South Bay- 33
Forecast Was- Low 30's
Southern Peninsula/Southern Everglades-
Flamingo Ranger St. 38-
Fort Lauderdale Int- 36 (Urban)
Fort Lauderdale Exec- 35(Urban)
Fort Lauderdale FAWN- 34 (Rural)
Homestead- 36 (Urban)
Homestead AFB- 37 (Suburban)
Homestead FAWN- 36 (Rural)
Miami Int- 37 (Urban)
Miami Beach- 36 (Urban Island)
Ortona- 30 (Rural)
Perrine- 35 (Suburban)
Royal Palm Beach West- 30 (Rural)
West Kendall Apt- 36 (Suburban)
West Palm Beach- 33 (Urban)
Forecast Was-
Florida Keys-
Key West- 45 (Waterfront)
Key West- 40 (Inland)
Kew West NAS- 44 (Waterfront Island)
Marathon- 41
Tavernier-40
Due to the position and expected trajectory of the Arctic high pressure
center at the surface and also at 850 mb (5000 ft), a warmer and more moist
NE flow is expected as the day wears on. This will mean an onshore flow
along the east coast from St. Augustine southward to Fort Pierce and then
across all of the southern peninsula. This will hold temperatures above
freezing, due to an increase in dewpoints and broken SC cloud cover.
However inland areas north of S.R. 70 and west of the Ronald Reagan Turnpike
will once again see subfreezing tempertures for early Saturday morning
01/15/03. Another hard freeze is expected north of I-4 and west of the
Ronald Reagan Turnpike and points northward across the northern regions of
the state. With a north drainage wind expected in inland regions this will
be a radiative freeze (light wind), with scattered cirrus passing overhead.
These cirrus clouds will be associated with the next winter storm system and
cold front headed for Florida on Sunday 01/26/03. A deep SE U.S. snow storm
is expected with this next system and the snow line will be close to the
Florida border, with another sub freezing temperature event expected for
Tuesday-Wednesday 01/28-29/03.
Folks I'm afraid we are stuck with at least 3 more weeks of cold weather
threats and we can still see even colder weather then our current event.
Thomas Giella
FL Meteorological & Climatic Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci.htm
Plant City, FL, USA
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