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From: Thomas Giella FMCI (fmci{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Sun Jan 19 2003 - 13:08:10 EST
2003 Florida Daily Weather Discussion
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
#2003-17 Published Sunday 01/19/03 At 11:00 AM EST
We had a second surge of wind and clouds across the peninsula overnight with
the exiting 500 mb shortwave trough, saving the agricultural regions of the
southern peninsula from any significant freeze damage. The subfreezing line
did dip deep into the inland southern peninsula to near U.S. 41, with the
hard freeze line down to near S.R. 50 west of U.S. 27 on the west central
peninsula.
The cold spot in the state early this morning was 20 deg. at Tallahassee, a
rare occurrence. Tallahassee has a reputation as the perennial state cold
spot because it holds the all time official record low temperature in the
state of -2 deg. F. Though it is usually the coldest first order station in
the state, it's much warmer then other official second order climatological
stations in the state. A similar situation also occurs at Brooksville which
is almost always the coldest station on the central peninsula but
considerably warmer then other surrounding locations like East Nobleton and
Inverness. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 21 deg. at East
Nobleton, with the cold spot across the southern peninusula of 31 deg. at
Clewiston.
Other notable minimum teperatures include 21 deg. at Perry and Jasper across
the north, 23 at Mount Plymouth, 27 at Palm Bay, 28 deg. at Venus WNW of
Lake Okeechobee and 31 deg. at Fort Pierce on the central peninsula and 32
deg. at South Bay, Ortona, Big Cypress and Immokalee.
In the Tampa Bay area the minimum temperatures early this morning were:
29 deg. Rural West Plant City
27 deg. Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)
33 deg. Urban Climate Station Plant City
30 deg. Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport
36 deg. Rural FAWN Station Dover
32 deg. Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport
33 deg. Suburban NWS Tampa Bay Office Ruskin
33 deg. Rural Balm
38 deg. Urban/Coastal Tampa International Airport
37 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Airport
36 deg. Urban/Coastal Mac Dill AFB
35 deg. Suburban Sarasota/Bradenton Airport
44 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete. Albert Whitted Airport
This morning we are seeing renewed cold air advection (CAA) in the wake of
the last 500 mb shortwave trough. Winds are shifting to north and dewpoints
are once again crashing on the peninsula. You could argue that we are really
experiencing dry air advection (DAA) today.
With the surface high pressure center expected over the peninsula late
tonight, this means cold dry air in place, with a clear sky and calm wind,
so perfect radiational cooling conditions are expected. We could see
temperature "drops" overnight in inland rural areas of 30-40 degrees, with
the subfreezing line dipping into the inland rural Redlands agriculture
region SW of Miami. A borderline hard freeze will also threaten the inland
rural citrus belt of the south central peninsula/northern Everglades, with
isolated colder pockets seeing a hard freeze.
Looking down the road in th near term, Tuesday-Thursday early mornings
01/21-23/03 look warmer but still cold. Unfortunately it also appears that
the third salvo of Arctic air that will arrive for Friday-Saturday
01/24-25/03 may be as cold or even colder yet, as there may be a layer of
snow on the ground just across the Florida border and northward across the
deep south to the Atlantic coast.
In the mid term our Siberian Arctic express pattern will steadily reload, as
the El Nino pattern stokes back up temporarily, providing us with some
precipitation. After tremendous El Nino enhanced record rainfall in December
2002, the first 19 days of January 2003 have been bone dry, due to the cold
onslaught.
BUT as is common in moderate El Nino years, as we move into the first two
weeks of February 2003, expect the reloaded Siberian Express onslught of
Arctic air to once again invade Florida.
#2003-16 Published Saturday 01/18/03 At 11:00 PM EST
The 500 mb shortwave trough moved through faster then I thought it would, so
skies have cleared out again and winds have gone calm to near calm in inland
rural areas. Here in West Plant City east of Tampa it's 29 deg. already and
we fell below freezing at 8:30 pm.
It now appears that the subfreezing line will dip into the inland rural
Redlands agriculture region SW of Miami. A borderline hard freeze will also
threaten the inland rural citrus belt of the south central
peninsula/northern Everglades, with isolated colder pockets seeing a hard
freeze.
Thomas Giella
FL Meteorological & Climatic Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci.htm
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