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From: Thomas Giella FMCI (fmci{at}tampabay.rr.com)
Date: Wed Jan 15 2003 - 13:25:14 EST
2003 Florida Daily Weather Discussion
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
#2003-11 Published Wednesday 01/15/03 At 11:00 AM EST
Yes it was cold in Florida ONCE AGAIN this morning. I can't recall such
consistent cold weather here in the sunshine state since the winter of
1995-96 and 1980-81. The cold spot in the state was 27 deg. at Venus on the
south central peninsula WNW of Lake Okeechobee. Nearby Archbold saw 29 deg.
This is in the heart of the new citrus growing region. The cold spot across
the north was 30 deg. at Crestview, with the cold spot across the south at
Immokalee with 38 deg.
Other notable minimum temperatures include 30 deg. at Perry, Brooksville and
East Nobleton, 31 deg. at MacClenny and 32 deg. at Inverness, Knights
Station and Mount Plymouth.
In the Tampa Bay area the minimum temperatures early this morning were:
34 deg. Rural West Plant City
32 deg. Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)
36 deg. Urban Climate Station Plant City
35 deg. Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport
38 deg. Rural FAWN Station Dover
42 deg. Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport
39 deg. Suburban NWS Tampa Bay Office Ruskin
38 deg. Rural Balm
43 deg. Urban/Coastal Tampa International Airport
47 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Airport
41 deg. Urban/Coastal Mac Dill AFB
50 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete. Albert Whitted Airport
Looking ahead to the next 7 days. First of all let me say that most all
government and private weather forecasters continue to underestimate the
upcoming one two three punch of Arctic air that will begin invading the
state on Friday 01/17/03, with a second surge on Sunday 01/19/03 and a third
surge on Wednesday 01/22/03.
This is not a criticism just an observation. The problem is an over
dependence on numerical weather forecast models. Absolutely none of the
models in existence have been verifying with any consistency, leaving most
with no real clue. As I've said before, my forecasts are made using
persistence, climatology, looking upstream for verification and also
teleconnection patterns. I give weather forecasting models only a cursory
glance.
Looking at the source region of the incoming Arctic air, it's trajectory,
it's current 850 mb core temperature, current snow cover, projected snow
cover with the impending deep south traversing extra tropical low pressure
center, a series of shortwave troughs that will carve out a deep 500 mb long
wave trough in the eastern U.S. I still think that the upcoming freeze
events for Friday-Thursday 01/17-23/03 will be significant and "possibly" as
bad as January 1996 and 1997. This forecast my friends is not based on
speculation.
The coldest morning should be early Monday 01/20/03. With less standing
surface water across most of the peninsula at the moment compared to
previous freeze events this winter. Also with cold air in place, coupled
with low dew points, clear skies and a calm wind, perfect radiational
cooling conditions will occur. The toughest part of the forecast this far in
advance, is trying to determine the timing and trajectory of cold dry
surface high pressure center across the peninsula. To far west or east by
sunrise Monday morning and it will be warmer. To far south and the
agricultural regions of the deep southern peninsula will be coldest.
This my take on the freeze event today but warmer or colder conditions could
ultimately occur. I expect the subfreezing line to extend southward into the
inland rural Redlands agricultural region SW of Miami. However at this
moment durations below freezing may spare the region widespread damage. The
inland rural heart of the citrus industry from the south central peninsula
into the northern Everglades will see borderline hard freeze conditions
(below 28 deg. for four or more hours), with the coldest isolated pockets
seeing upper teens to low 20's. Inland rural areas of the north central and
central peninsula will see a hard freeze, with the normally coldest areas
dipping into the mid and upper teens. Remember though this forecast is for
inland rural areas only. Urban and coastal regions will be much warmer.
Thomas Giella
FL Meteorological & Climatic Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci.htm
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