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From: Thomas Giella (kn4lf{at}gbronline.com)
Date: Tue Dec 31 2002 - 15:01:30 EST
Published 12/31/02 11:00 AM EST
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
This will likely be my last weather discussion post of 2002, unless I see something dramatically change for the worse with our incoming severe weather event. I wish all a happy and prosperous Near Year in 2003.
The squall line of severe thunderstorms which was located along the Gulf Coast of Texas at 11:00 PM last night is now entering the eastern Gulf Of Mexico and crossing the western Florida Panhandle! The line has a very impressive lightning signature and is moving eastward at approximately 40 mph and will arrive along the west coast of Florida by late afternoon. Winds ahead of the squall are from the SE-SW gusting to 35-45 mph, as moisture is increasing rapidly at all levels of the atmosphere. This stiff surface wind will liekly create coastal flooding later in the day! We have also seen a huge jump in temperature in the past 24 hours, from the mid 20's to mid 30's yesterday morning to mid and upper 70's this late morning. We are also seeing a huge 24 hour pressure fall so far from 30.36" at 11:00 AM yesterday, down to 29.94" at 11:00 AM this morning, with the surface pressure expected to bottom out somewhere in the mid 29.70's range.
Looking at the severe weather indices, our CAPE is low at the moment and the LI of -1 and expected to drop to -2 to -3, unimpressive indices. However the helicity is 400+ and expected to rise to 500 later in the day. We also hae a low level S-SW jet of of 60-70 mph, both indices very bad.
This all ads up to a rough evening with intense lightning, high straight line winds, large hail, tornadoes and excessive rainfall and flooding probable. Many areas will likely see their December 2002 rainfal totals exceed the El Nino record totals of December 1997!!!
Take Care,
Thomas Giella
Plant City, FL, USA
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci.htm
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