We are expecting severe weather in the Northeast on Sunday, possibly in the
morning and almost definitely in the evening. Here in PA this could be the
most significant severe outbreak this year. Feel free to join the
PA-Weather list for further discussion:
http://casi-internal/group/PA-Weather/?yguid=5183370
Larry Cosgrove wrote in his morning discussion: "Sunday could prove to be
dizzying, what with its widespread chances for intense convection over a
section of the U.S. not accustomed to such an early visit by the
thunderheads. Incredibly, numerical model agreement on such key convective
measures as instability, force, lift, and helicity is nearly unaninimous in
an area bounded by Richmond IN....Toronto ONT....Kingston NY....Warwick
RI....Salisbury MD....and Elizabethtown KY. With the surface warm front
reaching from S NY into CT and RI, at least two clusters of supercells are
likely to plow through an extremely unstable regime along and about 200
miles south of the mTw/cP boundary."
http://hometown.aol.com/wxamerica/prof.index.html
Joe Bastardi wrote in his discussion: "However Sunday, from the eastern
Ohio Valley early to the mid-Atlantic states and perhaps as far north as
the Mason-Dixon line, this may change. The warm sector may become an
explosive area for severe weather and I am concerned about the chance for
even tornadic activity Sunday afternoon from the Carolinas to Virginia and
perhaps farther north. Make no mistake about it, THIS IS PURE SPECULATION
NOW, but I would stay tuned in those areas as the weekend goes on for the
chance that this causes some real problems. So amazingly we may see a much
more widespread severe weather outbreak out of this over the mid-Atlantic
states than the southern Plains!"
http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/news_index.asp?nav=meteo&type=jbs&partner=6037
NWS CTP (Central Penn.) Says: "VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION TO SET IN
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY...COULD BE QUITE STRONG ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING. VERY STRONG DRY LINE WILL MAKE A RUN TO W PA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
RAPID CLEARING LIKELY...TEMPS LIKELY WILL SOAR AT LEAST INTO THE 70S. SPC
ALREADY HAS AREA OUTLOOK...TIMING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MAX HEATING. SUSPECT
AREA FOR REAL BAD STORMS MID AND UPPER SUSQ VLY...GIVEN LONGER TIME TO HEAT
UP...AND TURNING OF THE WINDS...BUT JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AT RISK. DRY
LINE SIMILAR IN SOME REGARDS TO MAY 83 AND MAY 85 EVENTS. RIDGE OVER GULF
STATES TOO...ALLOWING FOR FAST FLOW."
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/pa/discussion.html
-- ==================================================== Jesse Ferrell - Meteorologist & Internet Developer - WeatherMatrix 3000+ Weather Enthusiasts Can't Be Wrong! www.weathermatrix.net[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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