The USA Disaster Situation Report
Tornado Risk - Moderate
There is a 2% probability of a tornado over central through north central
California. Also from central southwest through north central Texas,
Oklahoma except the southeast 1/4 and the panhandle, Kansas except the west
southwest area, extreme northwest Colorado, Nebraska except the northwest
area, south southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota, the central and
southwest 1/2 of Wisconsin, the northwest 1/3 of Illinois, the northwest 1/2
of Missouri, and Iowa.
The 5% probability area covers north central California, Also over extreme
central north Oklahoma, Kansas except the western and southeast areas, the
southeast 3/4 of Nebraska, the extreme southeast part of South Dakota,
extreme south Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, extreme northwest Illinois,
north northwest Missouri, and Iowa
The 15% probability area covers the southeast 1/4 of Nebraska, central west
and southwest Iowa, and extreme north northwest Missouri.
Hail Risk - Severe
The 10% probability for hail 2 inches or large covers central through
eastern Nebraska, and Iowa except the extreme north northwest and extreme
south southeast areas.
There is a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger over north central
California. Also over central through central north Texas, Oklahoma except
the southeast and western areas, Kansas except the southwest 1/4, extreme
northwest Colorado, Nebraska, the south southeast 1/2 of South Dakota, the
southern 1/2 of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan except the eastern and
northeast areas, northwest Indiana, Illinois except the southeast 1/4
Missouri except the southeast 1/4, and Iowa.
The 15% probability area covers central north Oklahoma, the eastern 1/2 of
Kansas and the central north areas, Nebraska except the extreme western
area, the south southeast 1/3 of South Dakota, the southern 1/3 of
Minnesota, Wisconsin except the north northeast area, the northwest 1/2 of
Illinois, the northwest 1/2 of Missouri, and Iowa.
The 25% probability area covers extreme north northeast Kansas, central and
eastern Nebraska, extreme southeast South Dakota, far south southeast
Minnesota, far west southwest Wisconsin, far northwest Illinois, far
northern Missouri, and Iowa.
The 35% probability area covers central through eastern Nebraska, extreme
north northwest Missouri and Iowa except the extreme north northwest area.
The 45% probability area covers central through eastern Nebraska, and
central through central west and west southwest Iowa.
Wind Risk - Moderate
There is a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger over central through
central north Texas, Oklahoma except the southeast and western areas, Kansas
except the southwest 1/4, extreme northwest Colorado, Nebraska except the
far western area, the south southeast 1/3 of South Dakota, the southern 1/2
of Minnesota, Wisconsin except the far northern area, eastern Michigan,
northwest Indiana, Illinois except the southeast 1/4 Missouri except the
southeast 1/4, and Iowa.
The 15% probability area covers central north Oklahoma, the eastern 1/2 of
Kansas and the central north areas, Nebraska except the western area, far
south southeast South Dakota, far southern Minnesota, Wisconsin except the
northern area, the northwest 1/3 of Illinois, the northwest 1/3 of Missouri,
and Iowa..
The 25% probability area covers the eastern 1/3 of Nebraska, extreme
southeast South Dakota, extreme south southeast Minnesota, extreme west
southwest Wisconsin, extreme northwest Illinois, far northern Missouri, and
Iowa.
Tomorrow's Risk -
There is a 5% probability of any severe weather tomorrow over southeast
Iowa, northeast Missouri,
Illinois except the far southern and northern areas, and the west southwest
1/3 of Indiana.
Day Three's Risk -
There is less than a 5% probability of any severe weather on day 3 over
central through north central
California. Also over far north northeast Oklahoma, the eastern 1/2 of
Kansas, east southeast
Nebraska, south southeast Minnesota, Wisconsin except the northern area,
eastern Michigan,
northeast Indiana, Illinois except the southeast area, Missouri except the
south southeast area, and
Iowa.
The 15% probability area covers northeast Kansas, far southeast Nebraska,
Iowa except the
northwest 1/4, southern Wisconsin, the northwest 1/2 of Illinois, and the
northern 2/5 of Missouri.
The information presented here is not authoritative.
It contains preliminary and partial information reports. It is intended to serve as a general daily digest of disaster related reports. Any other use is not intended or authorized.
The Disaster Center is a partner with CASI - Central Atlantic Storm Investigators. CASI is a group of over a thousand amateur and professional meteorologists, storm spotters, and weather observers from around the world dedicated to the observation and documentation of weather events
http://www.weatherwatchers.org
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