The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For February 20, 2001
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or Significant
Icing Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column-
=> Sponsored by The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery
**** ARTICLES ****
=> Article National Weather Service Day 3-10 U.S. Threats Valid Friday,
February 23,
2001
=> Article Cleveland Volcano Activity Report
=> Article EIIP Tech Arena Presentation, Wednesday: CoBRA: Chemical
Biological
Response Aide
=> Article Space Shuttle 'Atlantis' and it's five man crew are scheduled
to try to land
today
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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Sponsored by the The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery
http://www.disastercenter.com/Rothstein/
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=> Subscribe/Unsubscribe information
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For February 20, 2001
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Mon...82 At Ft Myers...Punta Gorda...And Sarasota FL And Artesia NM
Low Tue...9 Below Zero At Wolf Point MT
=> Special Notes
Stratwarm Alert Exists Stratwarm Tuesday
Comment: STRATWARM ALERT/TUESDAY/STRATWARM EXISTS.
MAJOR WARMING CONTINUES.
A LARGE WARM AREA COVERS THE POLAR REGION, SIBERIA, EUROPE, AND THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC, LEADING TO A REVERSED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN 60N AND THE POLE UP TO 5 HPA.DISPLACED VORTEX LEAD TO NET
EASTERLY WINDS AT LATITUDE 60N THROUGHOUT THE STRATOSPHERE.
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Tue Feb 20 11:52:48 2001
Flood
Arkansas
THE LATEST STAGE AT CAMDEN WAS 36.9 FEET AT 6 AM. THE REVISED CREST
FORECAST IS 37.5 FEET MID-DAY TOMORROW. FLOOD STAGE IS 26 FEET.
Louisiana
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AT RED RIVER
LANDING.
THE RIVER WILL RISE TO THE 45 FOOT STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
EVACUATION OF RACCOURCI ISLAND IS RECOMMENDED. ACCESS ROADS WILL
BECOME INUNDATED AT THE 48 FOOT STAGE AND EVACUATION OF RIVER
ISLANDS MUST BE COMPLETE. PROTECTION OF PEOPLE AND PROPERTY IN THE
RIVER BOTTOM LAND ON THE RIVER SIDE OF THE LEVEES MUST BE COMPLETE.
Non Precipitation
Minnesota
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY...
North Dakota
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY...
Winter Storm
California
MORE SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...
...SNOW CONTINUES OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU
COUNTY...
A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON...
Idaho
Utah
THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS NORTH OF I-80
EXTENDING INTO IDAHO HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS
SOUTH OF I-80.
Michigan
BITTERLY COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA...
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight
There is less than a 2% probability of a tornado.
Hail Risk - Slight
There is a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger over far northeast
Texas, extreme east southeast
Oklahoma, extreme north northwest Louisiana, Arkansas, extreme south
southeast Missouri, north
northwest Mississippi, and southeast Tennessee.
The 15% probability area covers Arkansas except the extreme northern and
extreme south
southeastern areas.
Wind Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of winds in excess of 50 knots.
Tomorrow's Risk -
There is less than a 5% probability of any severe weather tomorrow.
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or
Significant
Icing Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hour precipitation forecast is calling for over 1 inch of
precipitation over isolated portions of
northern California.
The 24 - 48 hour precipitation forecast is calling for less than 1 inch of
precipitation.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall is not expected to exceed flash flood values.
USA heavy snow and/or significant icing
>From noon to midnight today EST the probability of 4 inches or greater of
snow is less than 20%
The probability of 1/4 inch or greater of ice accumulation is less than 20%
>From midnight to noon tomorrow EST the probability of 4 inches or greater of
snow is less than
20%
The probability of 1/4 inch or greater of ice accumulation is less than 20%
Current USA Snow and Ice Cover
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/us_NESDISsnow.gif
=> USA Flood Report
United States National flood summary are not currently available
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SITUATION REPORT
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2001 - 1000 MST
NATIONAL PREPARDNESS LEVEL 1
CURRENT SITUATION:
The Southern Area reported eight new large fires this past week, with
eight large fires reaching containment. Eastern and Southwest Areas also
reported one large fire each. Initial attack activity was reported on a
daily basis in the Southern Area with a slow decline later in the week in
response to the cold front moving across the Area. High pressure is
expected to move in behind this front later in the weekend bringing warmer
temperatures and drier air.
SOUTHERN AREA LARGE FIRES:
STATION, Florida Division of Forestry. No additional information was
reported.
BIG BEND, Florida Division of Forestry. This fire is in monitor status.
COBB MARSH, Florida Division of Forestry. This fire is in monitor status.
TORY ISLAND, Florida Division of Forestry. This fire is near Homestead, FL
and is in monitor status.
CANAL COMMAND, Florida Division of Forestry. This fire is near Highlands,
FL and engines are currently working the fire.
SOUTHWEST AREA LARGE FIRES:
MACBRIDE #1, Lake Meredith National Recreation Area. This fire is six
miles south of the Alibates Flint Quarries National Monument and is
burning primarily in brush and mesquite.
OUTLOOK:
The current storm system in the region will make its way to Georgia by
this afternoon, with showers tapering off to the west. Most of the
Carolinas and Florida will be under mostly cloudy skies, with the
possibility of precipitation late tonight, early tomorrow. Daytime high
temperatures will reach into the 60's and 70's by the afternoon, and winds
will be gusty throughout the day coming out of the southwest.
A stationary frontal system will begin to move in southward and eastward,
bringing precipitation all the way down the coast to Central California by
late this afternoon. Snow showers can be expected across Montana, Wyoming
and over the Nebraska Panhandle. A high pressure over the Great Basin will
remain for most of the day, and will begin to weaken by late afternoon.
The Southwest will see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies throughout the
day. Daytime high temperatures will be in the 40's in the Pacific
Northwest, with 20's to 30's farther inland, while the Desert Southwest
will see high temperatures in the 50's to 60's.
Cold arctic air will make its way southward through the Midwest and arrive
over much of Kansas by this afternoon. The skies across the Northern
Midwest will be partly to mostly cloudy as the cold air moves its way
south. Rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow will fall over the Eastern
Midwestern states. The Ohio Valley will see precipitation throughout the
entire day. High temperatures will reach into the teen's and 20's. Winds
will be strong out of the North. Texas will finally get a break from the
rain as the storm system in the Southern Midwest moves farther north and
eastward. High temperatures will be in the 30's and 40's before the front
passes through. Most of Texas will reach high temperatures in the 50's and
60's, with 70's farther south.
As the system in the Northern Midwest moves eastward, the storm to the
south will meet with it in the Northeast. Many areas will receive rain,
freezing rain and snow by early afternoon. By evening the precipitation
will change to snow. Temperatures will drop dramatically by noon today.
The winds will be extremely variable throughout the day, first from the
south then from the southeast, finally shifting to an east-to-southeast
pattern. Daytime high temperatures will be in the 30's to 40's just
before the cold front moves in, with a dramatic cool-down.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2001 FEB 20 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN STATE OF ALASKA
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2001 FEB 19 11:57:36.18 51.3 N 179.3 E 33 km 4.7
180 miles WSW of Adak, Alaska
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
No reports received
Wind Reports
No reports received
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column
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**** ARTICLES ****
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=> National Weather Service Day 3-10 U.S. Threats Valid Friday, February
23, 2001
- Tuesday, March 6, 2001
Summary of Forecasts & Threats
SYNOPSIS: The models are indicating a stormy period for the next week or
two. The first strong
storm is expected to affect the central and eastern states on Friday Feb. 23
through Monday Feb.
26. At the same time cold air is expected to bring much below normal
temperatures to much of
Alaska, where the winter has been mostly milder than normal so far. The MRF
model forecasts a
strong east coast strorm as well as another heavy snow storm for much of the
midwest during the
first week of March, but at this time range those storms are very uncertain.
THREATS
A strong storm is expected to bring widespread precipitation to much of the
eastern two thirds of the
nation February 23 - 26, with heavy snow over northern states and heavy rain
and strong
thunderstorms farther south.
Much below normal temperatures are anticipated for most of Alaska,
especially interior areas,
February 24 - 26.
Long-term drought continues over most of Florida, and over western portions
of the Carolinas,
eastern Tennessee, and northern Georgia.
DETAILED SUMMARY
For Friday February 23 through Sunday February 25: A strong winter storm is
expected to move
out of the Rockies and bring heavy snow from the eastern slopes of the
central Rockies eastward
through much of the northern and central Plains states to the upper
Mississippi Valley, the Great
Lakes, most of New York, and New England. Farther south temperatures should
be warm enough
for rain, but some areas that are already experiencing some river flooding
could see heavy rain. From
the southern Plains across the Gulf Coast States strong thunderstorms are a
possibility. There is still
some disagreement on the details of this storm amount the various model
forecasts, with some
models forecasting the storm to be weaker than the MRF model is forecasting
it to be. Cold air is
expected to build over northwestern Canada and Alaska, and bring much below
normal
temperatures to much of Alaska.
For Monday February 26 through Tuesday March 6: The winter storm is expected
to produce
locally heavy snow across New York and New England on Monday Feb. 26. Cold
air is expected
to continue across Alaska on that day before a Pacific storm brings warmer
conditions to the state.
The MRF model forecasts a strong east coast strorm, a Nor'easter, to affect
most of the east coast
and Appalachians on March 3rd through 5th. Heavy snows are forecast by the
MRF model,
especially in the mountains. The MRF model also forecasts a storm with heavy
snow for much of the
midwest during March 5th through 7th. At this time range whether or not
these storms will even
develop is very uncertain, but this suggests at least the possibility that
winter is not over yet.
=> CLEVELAND VOLCANO ACTIVITY REPORT
ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY
Monday, February 19, 2001 10:30 AM AST (1930 UT)
52°49'N 169°57'W
Summit Elevation 5,674 ft (1,730 m)
AVO detected a volcanic ash cloud emanating from Cleveland Volcano in
satellite imagery that began about 1500 Z (0600 AST), in the Islands of the
Four Mountains. According to images from 1845 Z (0945 AST), the main part
of the cloud was drifting about 120 km (75 mi) southeast of Cleveland and
reached about 17,000 feet above sea level. A higher ash cloud extends to
the north about 100 km (60 mi) and has reached an estimated altitude of
30,000 ft above sea level.
Observers in Nikolski report that the summit of the volcano is currently
obscured by clouds. At this time, based on satellite imagery, the
southeast ash plume is approaching the western end of Umnak Island.
Mt. Cleveland forms the western half of Chuginadak Island a remote and
uninhabited island in the east central Aleutians. It is located 40 km (25
mi) west of Umnak Island and 70 km (40 mi) west of the community of
Nikolski. A distinctively symmetrical stratovolcano, Cleveland has erupted
11 times since 1893. Its most recent eruption on May 25, 1994 sent a
short-lived ash plume to about 10.5 km (35,000 ft) altitude. Ash fall from
this eruption impacted the north and east flanks of the volcano, and small
debris flows may have formed on the southwest flank. On October 20, 1994,
AVO identified a possible ash plume on satellite imagery, however, no
eruption was confirmed.
Recent eruptions from Mt. Cleveland have been characterized by short-lived
explosive bursts of ash, at times accompanied by lava fountaining and lava
flows down the flanks. Cleveland is not monitored seismically.
AVO will continue to monitor the situation closely and will issue further
updates as information becomes available.
=> EIIP Tech Arena Presentation, Wednesday: CoBRA: Chemical Biological
Response Aide
February 21, 12:00 Noon EST
The Chemical Biological Response Aide (CoBRA) system, developed by Defense
Group
Inc. (DGI), provides critical data and procedural guidelines for Weapons of
Mass
Destruction (WMD) incident response, based on the needs of the civilian
First
Responder community. This tailored software, along with appropriate data
files,
is available for the civilian First Responder community as a resource for
firefighters, emergency medical personnel, law enforcement personnel, HAZMAT
teams, emergency management personnel and forensics examiners.
Join us Wednesday, February 21, when Brad Gardner, Dr. Donald Ponikvar, and
Craig Levy of the DGI CoBRA team, will provide an overview of the system and
respond to your comments and questions.
Please review the background page at
http://www.emforum.org/varena/010221.htm,
then participate by logging in via the Chat Login link under Quick Picks on
the
EIIP home page at http://www.emforum.org/ , using your real first and last
names. If you join the session already in progress, please enter quietly and
follow the Moderator's instructions. See our On-line Events page,
http://www.emforum.org/events.htm , for assistance with converting to your
local
time.
Please extend this invitation to participate to anyone you think would be
interested in this topic.
Transcripts of all previous sessions are available on-line via the
Transcripts
link under Quick Picks, and are now arranged by topic, in addition to date,
for
easy retrieval of sessions of interest.
=> Space Shuttle 'Atlantis' and it's five man crew are scheduled to try
to land today
Issued by Collier County EM at 8:45 AM, Tuesday, 20 February 2001:
Space Shuttle 'Atlantis' and it's five man crew are scheduled to try to land
today either at Kennedy
Space Center in Brevard County, or Edwards
Air Force Base in California. The shuttle's orbit will provide up to
four landing opportunities on Tuesday. The first landing option will
pass over Collier County. 'Atlantis' is to start it's deorbit burn on
orbit 200 at 11:20:19 am Eastern Standard Time, which would bring it
across the west coast of Florida near Port of the Islands at an altitude
of around 100,000 feet around 12:15 pm. If NASA is able to land on this
pass, the telltale twin sonic booms would be heard a short time later
over most of the county. Only a landing attempt on orbit 200 would have
any impact on Collier County.
These booms are often reported to emergency service agencies via 911 as
'explosions' causing unnecessary emergency responses over a wide area.
If, around 12:15 today, you hear two loud 'booms' within a second or
less please do NOT report them to 911.
A chart showing the orbit 200 approach is attached. For more
information on the booms see:
http://www.dfrc.nasa.gov/EAO/FactSheets/SonicBoomsFACTS.html
If weather, or some other factor does not allow a landing on orbit 200,
a second opportunity to land at Kennedy Space Center follows at 2:02 pm,
on a track which will take the orbiter over the Tampa Bay area and over
the I-4 corridor.
If a Florida landing is not possible, two opportunities remain at
Edwards Air Force Base in California on orbits 202 and 203.
This is a service of Collier County, Florida Emergency Management
For comprehensive emergency preparedness and response information
visit our website at:
http://www.collierem.org/ --or--
http://www.colliergov.net/emergency/
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Gives you new directions if you miss a turn, encounter traffic, or choose
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Complete nationwide information on one CD that features more than 96 million
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GPS receiver picks up satellite signals and uses them to pinpoint your
location on earth
Shipping: Currently, item can be shipped only within the U.S.
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