The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For December 26, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or Significant
Icing Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column- -- Larry Cosgrove -- Entrenched "PNA" Configuration Favors
Continued Severe Cold In Eastern Two-Thirds Of U.S.; Massive Winter Storm
Likely
Through Dixie, East Coast
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The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For December 26, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Mon...78 At Fort Myers FL
Low Tue...17 Below Zero At Watertown NY
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Tue Dec 26 11:12:48 2000
Flash Flood
Texas
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
FANNIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
* UNTIL 1130 AM CST
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY...
Flood
Texas
FOR THE NAVASOTA RIVER ABOVE GROESBECK...MINOR FLOODING IS
OCCURRING.
FOR THE SABINE RIVER INCLUDING GREENVILLE...QUINLAN...MINOR FLOODING
IS OCCURRING. FOR THE TRINITY RIVER INCLUDING DALLAS...MCKINNEY...
MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. FOR THE HEADWATER FORECASTS
INCLUDING DALLAS WHITE ROCK...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
Non Precipitation
California
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TODAY...
WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM FOR ALL OF
VENTURA COUNTY AND MOST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY...
Connecticut
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY...
Massachusetts
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...
Maine
VERY COLD AND WINDY THIS AFTERNOON...
New Hampshire
WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
Rhode Island
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY...
Utah
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-UTAH'S DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL
PARK-
...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON TUESDAY...
Winter Storm
Arkansas
ICE STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS HAVE BEEN
EXCESSIVE...WITH AN INCH TO TWO INCHES IN MANY AREAS.
IN MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...NOT AS MUCH ICING HAS
OCCURRED.
AS OF 730 AM THIS MORNING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF
LITTLE ROCK.
Arizona
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN APACHE CO-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
...SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MST...
Colorado
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
TONIGHT...HEAVY SNOW IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.
Illinois
SNOW WAS FALLING OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS
MORNING AND WAS SPREADING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.
EXPECT THE SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH MOST
OF THE AFTERNOON...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THAT
AREA.
Kansas
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER.
Kentucky
SNOW WAS FALLING OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS
MORNING AND WAS SPREADING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.
Louisiana
ICE STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...
Maine
THE LIGHT SNOW WHICH FELL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT THIS AFTERNOON.
Missouri
SNOW WAS FALLING OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS
MORNING AND WAS SPREADING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.
Mississippi
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL RIGHT AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH MIDDAY.
New Mexico
...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY CENTRAL AND SOUTHCENTRAL
MOUNTAINS
EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
...SNOW ADVISORY TODAY NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...
New York
MORE LOCALIZED LAKE SNOWS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...
Oklahoma
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY TONIGHT RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SOME SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
Tennessee
WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...
.A STORM SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM MOIST AIR
OVERRIDING FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE MID-SOUTH TODAY.
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SOME SLEET WILL MIX WITH THE FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. SOME ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA.
Texas
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD AND
MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PANHANDLES. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight
There is less than a 2% probability of a tornado.
Hail Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger.
Wind Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of winds in excess of 50 knots.
Tomorrow's Risk -
There is less than a 5% probability of any severe weather tomorrow.
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or
Significant
Icing Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hour precipitation forecast is calling for over 2 inches of
precipitation over a portion of north
northeast Texas.
1 inch of precipitation is forecasted over east central Texas north to
south, central west Arkansas,
and southeast Oklahoma.
The 24 - 48 hour precipitation forecast is calling for over 2 inches of
precipitation over far east
southeast Texas, and southeast Louisiana.
1 inch of precipitation is forecast over the eastern 1/4 of Texas, and the
southeast 1/2 of Louisiana.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Some modestly low flash flood guidance values over east southeast Texas
could pose a problem and
this would seem to be the area most vulnerable to at least some local runoff
problems.
USA heavy snow and/or significant icing
>From noon to midnight today EST the probability of 2 inches or greater of
snow is low over a
portion of central north Texas, southeast, north centeral and northeast
Oklahoma, northern
Arkansas, and northwestern Tennessee.
The moderate probability area is over central west Oklahoma
>From noon to midnight today EST the probability of 4 inches or greater of
snow is low over eastern
central through eastern New Mexico, north central through the Texas
panhandle, the oklahoma
panhandle, far south southeastern Kansas, southern Missiouri, southern
Illinois, far southern Indiana,
central west and western Kentucky, the north central portion of Michigan's
northern peninsula,
northern Michigan, far western and central north New York.
The moderate probability area is over central east New Mexico and the Texas
panhandle.
The probability of 1/4 inch or greater of ice accumulation is low over from
central to the north
northeast 1/4 of Texas, the southeast 2/3 of Oklahoma, Arkansas, northern
Mississippi, northern
Alabama, and south southwest Tennessee.
The moderate probability area is over northeast central through the north
northeast portion of Texas,
the southeast 1/3 of Oklahoma, Arkansas except the north northeast and far
south southeast areas,
northern Mississippi, northwest Alabama, and extreme south southwest
Tennessee.
The high probability area is over a portion of north northeast Texas,
southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas
except the north northeast 1/3 and south southeast areas,
>From midnight to noon tomorrow EST the probability of 2 inches or greater of
snow is low over far
central north Texas and west central Oklahoma north to south.
>From midnight to noon tomorrow EST the probability of 4 inches or greater of
snow is low over the
north central portion of Michigan's northern peninsula, northern Michigan,
far western and central
north New York, far northwestern Ohio, and far northwestern Pennsylvania.
The moderate probability area is over far western and central north New
York, central west New
Mexico, north central Texas through the Texas panhandle.
The probability of 1/4 inch or greater of ice accumulation is low over south
central through northeast
Texas, southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas except the northern and far southeastern
area, northern
Mississippi, northwest Alabama, and south southwest Tennessee.
The moderate probability area is over central east through northeast Texas,
far southeast Oklahoma,
and Arkansas except the northern 1/3 and the southeast 1/2.
Current USA Snow and Ice Cover
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/us_NESDISsnow.gif
=> USA Flood Report
NATIONAL HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
08:45 AM EST TUE DEC 26 2000
FLOOD SUMMARY
MINOR TEXAS FLOODING
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF TEXAS AS A MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVES EASTWARD WITH SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION.
FLASH FLOODING:
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD AND/OR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR LOCATIONS INCLUDING
(ALPHABETICAL BY STATE):
TEXAS:
TUESDAY: FANNIN COUNTY
MONDAY: WILLIAMSON COUNTY
RIVER FLOODING:
RIVERS OR STREAMS WITH LOCATIONS EITHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE PAST
24 HOURS FOR LOCATIONS INCLUDING (ALPHABETICALLY BY STATE):
ARKANSAS: THE CACHE RIVER
LOUISIANA: THE BAYOU DORCHEAT
TEXAS: THE NECHES RIVER
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
The USA Fire Report and Forecast has not been updated.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 DEC 26 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN STATE OF ALASKA
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 DEC 25 20:43:08.41 51.1 N 179.9 E 33 km 5.0
160 miles WSW of Adak, Alaska
Magnitude : 3.1 Ml
Time : 26 Dec 2000 02:52:34 AM PST
Location : 11 mi. SSE of Pt. Fermin, San Pedro, CA
: 34 mi. S of Los Angeles Civic Center, CA
: 36 mi. SW of GYPSUM (quarry)
: 4 mi. SW of the Palos Verdes Fault
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
No reports received
Wind Reports
No reports received
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column -- Entrenched "PNA" Configuration Favors Continued Severe
Cold
In Eastern Two-Thirds Of U.S.; Massive Winter Storm Likely Through Dixie,
East Coast
WEATHER SUMMARY THROUGH NEXT 72 HOURS
Since continental Arctic air tends to be dry (initial low dewpoints, chilled
over a snowpack under fair
sky and high pressure), those suffering under its grip are usually
precipitation-free. There are
exceptions of course, such as when the brutal values pass above a water body
or are forced upslope
over mountains. So while many living across the eastern two-thirds of the
nation are indeed shivering,
they do so without confronting snow and ice.
But as luck would (not) have it, that easy-travel scenario is about to
change. A combination of two
relatively weak storms, one a closed low in the southern Rocky Mountains and
another pushing
through the Pacific Northwest, will create massive havoc over the southern
tier of states during the
next 72 hours. The disturbance sitting above NM is bringing up warm, moist
air over subfreezing
parcels in the Red River Valley and Arklatex regions. And while a brief
reprieve to milder air may
ease or actually stop the icing tomorrow, the eventual eastward motion of
the upper system means
an inevitable return to glazing conditions.
That shift in the storm track (see below) will be in response to the impulse
entering BC digging
southeastward, acting as a kicker to its counterpart downstream. Although
initially quite moist, with
locally heavy rain and snow over the coastal ranges and Puget Sound, the
energy will be
accompanied by only some clouds as it nears CO tomorrow night.
Thunderstorms, seen now
creating outlandish icing through much of the south central U.S., will
actually increase in coverage
over and near the Gulf Coast on Wednesday, awaiting the merger process
between the two cores of
500mb vorticity.
There is also a heavy snow component to this storm, and my fear is that it
will begin to expand out of
the High Plains tomorrow night and plaster the Dallas/Ft. Worth TX metroplex
as well as Shreveport
LA/Texarkana AR corridor with a quick 3-5 inches of flakes on top of the
possible one inch of ice
that may be in place (and expanding) in N TX....S OK....AR....N LA. Power
outages are very likely
in the ice/snow affected areas, as gusty winds begin to take town electrical
supply lines. And as the
organizing low exits the scene Thursday evening, drier but colder readings
could act to freeze over
any standing puddles or slush.
Another shot of incredibly bitter cold air is poised to ride through the
Great Lakes today and the
Northeast tomorrow. The small upper shortwave associated with this sharp
blast of low
temperatures may help to generate low-topped convective snow bands, some of
which may last into
Thursday morning as the dropping 1000-500mb thicknesses reach the Interstate
95 corridor from
VA to ME. Surface winds may be strong enough to lower chill factors to -30 F
once again. So
maybe you can use that garish looking overcoat Aunt Bertha got you for a
Christmas present. just be
sure to have a scarf and gloves, too!
The Arctic regime will interact with the growing Southern U.S. ice/snow
situation. Thursday the low
will be moving just north of the Gulf Coast, in position to affect NE
LA....N MS....N AL....N
GA....S TN with a critical ice and glaze event. I used a blend of the GEM
and AVN models
concerning the trajectory of the surface low. While one version has an
accurate reflection of moisture
and UVV arrangement about the storm (Canadian), the Aviation scheme more
correctly placed the
shallow cold intrusion in the boundary layer. Loosely translated, that means
anyone living between
Interstate 40 (Memphis....Nashville....Knoxville TN) and Interstate 20
(Shreveport....Monroe
LA....Jackson MS....Birmingham AL....Columbia SC) had better be prepared for
prolonged travel
delays and stoppages. Believe me when I say that this storm could reach
historic levels of damage in
Dixie if current NWP data verifies.
>From Larry Cosgrove's
WeatherAmerica
http://weatheramerica.net/
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