This is a little technical but interesting nonetheless
XUS61 KCTP 160657
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
150 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2000
...
NEXT CONCERN IS FOR STRONG WINDS. LAST NIGHT I WAS
LOOKING AT SAT
DERIVED WINDS OVER THE NRN PACIFIC...AND WONDERING WHY
THE MODELS
WERE INITIALIZING AN UPPER JET MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
CIRRUS TRACERS
SEEMED TO SHOW. WELL TONIGHT THE ANSWER CAME IN EMAIL
THAT THE
SOFTWARE IS NOT ABLE TO RESOLVE CIRRUS TRACERS MOVING
THAT MUCH
FASTER THAN MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS...THUS THE REAL WINDS
GET THROWN
OUT. REALITY IS THAT THE UPPER JET IS ACTUALLY MORE
POTENT THAN EVEN
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS. 200KT
UPPER JET IS
SLIDING DOWN WRN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW COURTESY OF
STRONGLY
BUILDING ERN PACIFIC RIDGE. UPPER HGHT RISES OVER WRN US
ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 300+M/12HR. THIS IS TRANSLATING INTO STRONG
DOWNSTREAM UPPR
HGHT FALLS AS THE TROF SLIDES AND DIGS SE. AS UPPER
JET/TROF DEEPEN
AND SLIDE INTO ERN US...LOW LEVELS RESPOND STRONGLY IN
THE FORM OF A
VERY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SURGES NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA.
ENSEMBLE VALUES SUGGEST 4-5 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE SSE
JET WHICH ALL MODELS PROG IN THE RANGE OF 60-70KT. WITH
MARKED
DESTABILIZATION FCST TO OCCUR UNDER RAPIDLY FALLING
UPPER HGHTS AND
SURGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY
MIXING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE THE STRONG WINDS IS HIGH. WILL BE
CONSIDERING A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A RESULT. ONLY
THING THAT
MAY SWAY ME TO DELAY THAT IS FULL PLATE OF WEATHER TO
DEAL WITH
TODAY AND POTENTIAL FOR A BATCH OF CONFUSING PRODUCTS
BEING OUT FOR
THE PUBLIC TO CONSUME.
...
LA CORTE
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sun Dec 31 2000 - 19:41:15 EST