The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For December 7, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
------------------------------------------------------------
=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or Significant
Icing Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column- From Larry Cosgrove's WeatherAmerica
=> Sponsored by The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery
**** ARTICLES ****
=> Article Volunteers Needed -- Southern Monmouth Area Regional Technical
Search
And Rescue/Disaster Emergency Medical Responce Team
=> Article Extended Range Forecast Of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity
And Us
Landfall Strike Probability For 2001
=> Article NTSB Releases Booklet Outlining Transportation Safety Issues For
Children
And Youth
=> Article National Drought Summary -- December 5, 2000
=> Article Federal Disaster Funds Authorized For Montana Winter Storms
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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Sponsored by the The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery
http://www.disastercenter.com/Rothstein/
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=> Subscribe/Unsubscribe information
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For December 7, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
------------------------------------------------------------
=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Wed...81 At Glendale Northridge And Lemon Grove CA
Low Thu...9 Below Zero At Pellston MI
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Thu Dec 7 11:36:41 2000
Non Precipitation
Colorado
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
THIS MORNING...
Texas
FROST ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
Winter Storm
Illinois
A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS.
Indiana
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA... AND NORTHWEST OHIO TODAY.
SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
Michigan
SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
Minnesota
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE MN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GRAND MARAIS MN
..LAKE SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
New York
CATTARAUGUS NY-CHAUTAUQUA NY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN NY...OLEAN NY
..LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING CONTINUES INTO THIS AFTERNOON...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE WEAKENED BUT ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
Ohio
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT... A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST PASSING JUST NORTH OF OHIO TONIGHT.
Oregon
Washington
CENTRAL OREGON-FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (OR)-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (WA)-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN (OR)-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN (WA)-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
...FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
Pennsylvania
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND INTO LAKE
GEAUGA AND ASHTABULA COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND
INTO ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
South Dakota
PRECIPITATION OVER EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WAS DECREASING AND MOVING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.
Vermont
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY NEW YORK...
Wisconsin
CHICKASAW-CLAYTON-FAYETTE-FLOYD-HOWARD-MITCHELL-MOWER-WINNESHIEK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUSTIN...CHARLES CITY...DECORAH...OELWEIN
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
PERIODS OF LIGHT LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED AT TIMES WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight
There is less than a 2% probability of a tornado.
Hail Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger.
Wind Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of winds in excess of 50 knots.
Tomorrow's Risk -
There is less than a 5% probability of any severe weather tomorrow.
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or
Significant
Icing Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hour precipitation forecast is calling for less than 1 inch of
rainfall.
The 24 - 48 hour precipitation forecast is calling for less than 1 inch of
rainfall.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall is not expected to exceed flash flood values.
USA heavy snow and/or significant icing
>From noon to midnight today EST the probability of heavy snow is low over
southwest Wisconsin,
northeast Illinois, north central and northern Indiana, central south and
southern Michigan, north
central and northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, and far western New York.
The moderate probability area is over northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio,
and southeast Michigan.
The probability of significant icing is less than 20 percent.
>From midnight to noon tomorrow EST the probability of heavy snow is low over
the northern and
eastern parts of Michigan's northern peninsula, northern Michigan, far
northeast Ohio, north central
and northern Pennsylvania, and southwest and central south New York.
The moderate probability area is over the central north part of Michigan's
northern peninsula, and
central north Michigan.
The probability of significant icing is less than 20 percent.
=> USA Flood Report
NATIONAL HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
0730 AM EST THU DEC 07 2000
FLOOD SUMMARY
FLASH FLOODING:
NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD AND/OR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
RIVER FLOODING:
RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH LOCATIONS EITHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INCLUDE:
ARKANSAS: THE CACHE RIVER
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
The USA Fire Report and Forecast has not been updated.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 DEC 07 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN WEST CENTRAL UNITED STATES
(35.8 TO 40.3 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 DEC 5 21:18:46.00 36.1 N 117.9 W 4 km 3.2
35 miles NNW of Ridgecrest, California
2000 DEC 5 22:54:54.00 36.8 N 121.4 W 9 km 3.9
NEAR Hollister, California
EARTHQUAKES IN NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
(40.3 TO 50.0 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 DEC 5 22:48:48.99 44.9 N 113.4 W 5 km 3.0
30 miles SE of Salmon, Idaho
EARTHQUAKES IN STATE OF ALASKA
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 DEC 6 18:40:28.00 63.9 N 149.8 W 25 km 5.0
45 miles NW of Cantwell, Alaska
2000 DEC 5 22:11:33.57 52.7 N 168.0 W 33 km 5.6
40 miles ESE of Nikolski, Alaska
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
No reports received
Wind Reports
No reports received
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(weather trends through the next 6 to 10 days)
After all four of the MRF-based equations (OpMRF, MRFx, MRFy, AVNx) came out
with an astounding longer term prediction of a massive intermountain
region/Great Plains blizzard and shock warmup/cooldown over the eastern
quarter of the continent, I had to review all options to see if such an
extreme outlook had a chance of verifying. To be sure, the 12z Dec 6 ECMWF
reversed course and was in virtual concurrence with the madcap American
outlooks. But the MM5x, NOGAPS, and 0z Dec 7 GBL continue to contradict the
other 5 forms of guidance. Because of that disagreement, and also in using
persistence and teleconnections, I have decided to ignore the extreme
solutions through Day 10.
The forecast I came up with is closest in spirit to the MM5x and NOGAPS
versions. Undoubtedly, many changes will occur between now and the start of
next week, but those schemes and their more moderate scenario appealed to my
need for compromise. One big factor in the dismissal of the
American/European
idea is that temperatures and upper velocities over the eastern half of
North
America are much colder and faster than was predicted by those outlooks.
There is also the not insignificant matter of a weak Rex block building over
Greenland, which the Canadian and Mesoscale formats depicted but was not
well
initialized by the other, hyperactive schemes. A positive height anomaly in
an NAO position, when combined with a cold vortex near 50 Latitude 50
Longitude almost always yields lower than normal values for the eastern half
of the continent. It makes little sense, in other words, to buy the idea
that
Philadelphia PA might go from near-record cold on Saturday to
record-breaking
warmth on Tuesday.
The reverse thought is also true, because most of the MRF family of models
had an outlandish cAk/mT thermal boundary near the Mississippi River at
144-156 hours. I can see a steep drop-off in temperatures upcoming early
next
week, but to put 850mb temperatures of -40 C a mere 200 miles upstream of a
+12 reading seems unlikely. The ensemble averages of the MRF and GBL models
lean toward a more spread-out depiction of the Arctic dome, with suggestions
of a less impressive low and trough moving through the Midwest.
I believe that energy from both the Pacific Ocean and Arctic Canada will
combine, downstream of a moderately strong thumb projection ridge just
beyond
the West Coast. Surface cyclogenesis in KS/OK should ride the west-southwest
jet stream flow, producing mainly overrunning precipitation in both solid
and
liquid forms. There is a chance for locally heavy snow/ice in the Corn Belt,
Great Lakes, and even New England early next week. Some warmer air may nudge
as far north as N NJ and LI NY, but the only part of the U.S. that will see
record temperatures will be the South, as the subtropical ridge builds
toward
FL by Day 6.
There is also the matter of the late season tropical disturbance forming
over
the Caribbean Sea. An upgrading to depression status appears likely as of
this writing, as 500mb height rises above the storm favor expansion and
intensification of its low-level circulation. Could this feature become
involved in a possible winter storm over the eastern half of the U.S. after
108 hours? It might, though my major concern is how the system may
move/react
as the heat ridge to its north erodes in the medium range. I am sure FL and
GA would not mind catching up on some rainfall totals, but this saturated
impulse could very quickly bring flooding to the Sunshine and Peach states.
Stay tuned!
>From Larry Cosgrove's WeatherAmerica
http://weatheramerica.net/
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**** ARTICLES ****
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=> Volunteers Needed -- Southern Monmouth Area Regional Technical Search
And
Rescue/Disaster Emergency Medical Responce Team
The Southern Monmouth Area Regional Technical Search And Rescue/Disaster
Emergency Medical
Responce Team is in need of new members. If you are from the new jersey area
and would like to
help please e-mai us.
REV.DR.WAYNE E. MAY CHIEF SMARTSAR N.J.
SMARTSAR{at}HOTMAIL.COM
=> Extended Range Forecast Of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity And
Us Landfall
Strike Probability For 2001
A downturn is expected from the recent five (1995-96-98-99-00) very busy
seasons. Although
below average Atlantic basin hurricane activity is anticipated, above
average probability of U.S.
landfall is forecast.
This forecast is based on ongoing research by the authors,
along with meteorological information through November 2000
By William M. Gray,* Christopher W. Landsea**, Paul W. Mielke, Jr.and
Kenneth J. Berry***,
and Eric Blake****
* Professor of Atmospheric Science
** Meteorologist with NOAA/AOML HRD Lab., Miami, FL
*** Professors of Statistics
**** Dept. of Atmospheric Science
[David Weymiller and Thomas Milligan, Colorado State University, Media
Representatives
(970-491-6432) are available to answer various questions about this
forecast. ]
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
7 December 2000
2001 ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
7 December 2000
Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Forecast for 2001
Named Storms (NS) (9.3) 9
Named Storm Days (NSD) (46.9) 45
Hurricanes (H)(5.8) 5
Hurricane Days (HD)(23.7) 20
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.2) 2
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(4.7) 4
Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) (70.6) 65
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%) 90
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE
LANDFALL
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 63% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 43% (average for last
century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 36%
(average for last century
is 30%)
4) Expected average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.
(Landfall probabilities for 2001 are above average even though forecast NTC
is below average; this
is due to the expected ongoing contribution of the recent five-year positive
North Atlantic SSTA
trend which is a proxy representation of the strength of the Atlantic
thermohaline circulation - see
discussion in section 6. A full report on the methodology for estimating
these landfall probabilities is
in preparation and will be made available on this Web site.)
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2001/fcst2001/index.html
=> NTSB Releases Booklet Outlining Transportation Safety Issues For
Children And
Youth
Washington, D.C. - Today, the National Transportation Safety Board announced
the publication of the booklet "Putting Children First." The publication
outlines past and current problems involving transportation safety for
children and youths, and reviews transportation safety improvements brought
about by Safety Board recommendations.
Highway crashes are the leading cause of death for children in this country.
Since the Safety Board's inception in 1967, more than 100 recommendations
have been made on ways to improve the safety of America's children on the
nation's highways, our waterways, and in our air.
"During my tenure at the Safety Board I have had countless conversations
with parents whose children have been injured or died in traffic crashes,"
said Jim Hall, NTSB Acting Chairman. "They all emphasize that they don't
want another family to endure a similar tragedy and that they are frustrated
at how difficult it is to ensure the safety of their children when traveling
by automobile."
Some of the issues discussed in the 35-page report are the dangers air bags
pose to children, the need for permanent child safety seat fitting stations,
car designs that focus on child safety, the need to strengthen construction
standards of passenger vans used for school activities, the benefits of zero
alcohol tolerance for drivers under age 21, and the need for child
restraints in aviation.
"The Safety Board is working hard to change the way Americans think about
the safety of our smallest passengers and to move the country towards a
child-safe culture," Hall said. "The Safety Board urges every citizen and
every government office to foster a safety culture that puts child
transportation safety at the top of the safety agenda."
Copies of "Putting Children First" are available on the Safety Board's web
site at www.ntsb.gov <http://www.ntsb.gov> and from the NTSB's Public
Inquiries Section, 490 L'Enfant Plaza, S.W., Washington, DC, 20594, (202)
314-6551 or (800) 877-6799.
=> National Drought Summary -- December 5, 2000
The South: After a very wet November, mostly dry and unseasonably cold
weather enveloped the
Southeast. The pause in precipitation halted additional reduction of
dryness, although long-term
hydrological drought persisted. In Florida, however, most of the state
received less than 75% of
normal November rainfall, with some southern locations recording under 25%
as drought worsened
across much of the state. Nearly 60% of the state's 42 reporting streamflow
levels were below the
10th percentile on Tuesday, including 26% at record low flows, according to
the USGS.
Additionally, the NRCS SCAN site at Sellers Lake, FL, although a sandy soil
pedon, still measured
only 1-3% of water by volume at the 2, 4, 8, and 20" soil depths, and 14% at
40"(45% is usually
considered saturation). Accordingly, a new area of exceptional drought (D4)
was centered near
Orlando (Y-T-D precipitation of 28.79", 62% of normal, 17.55" deficit).
Farther west, light
precipitation (0.1 to 0.5") returned to southern Texas after a week's
respite, continuing a trend of
wet weather since mid-September. Taking into account this and the latest
November indices,
D0(W) was removed from around the Del Rio vicinity as the area's long-term
indicators were
near-normal.
The Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Region: Although light precipitation
(0.1-0.5") fell on much of this
region, it has not eased short-term deficits produced from a near-record dry
October. Two-month
percentages ranged between 25-75% of normal, with departures of -3 to -6
inches. Many
streamflows in eastern Kentucky, southwestern Ohio, West Virginia, and
Pennsylvania reflected this
dryness as they continued to gradually drop below the 25th percentile.
Short-term indicators
suggested that abnormal dryness (D0) expanded across southern and eastern
Kentucky and into
central Pennsylvania.
The Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes Region: Over the drought areas, only
light snow (2 to 4
inches) fell on the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and most of Iowa (liquid
equivalent: 0.1-0.3"),
insufficient for drought amelioration. Much of Nebraska and the eastern
thirds of Wyoming and
Montana, however, received little or no precipitation as drought conditions
persisted across these
areas. Based upon the November indices, the D1 and D2 areas (in southern and
western Iowa,
respectively) were slightly adjusted (expanded) to reflect drier long-term
indicators, while the
hydrological designation in northwest Missouri was removed.
The West: Weak storm systems brought light to moderate snowfall (liquid
equivalents of 0.3-1.2") to
most of the northern and central Rockies. Since October 1, SNOTEL basin
average precipitation
was close to or above 100% of normal in southwestern Montana, eastern Idaho,
extreme
northwestern Wyoming, and northeastern Utah, allowing for some removal of D0
in those regions. In
contrast, little or no snow fell on north-central Montana, keeping drought
intact. Subnormal
precipitation continued in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada as SNOTEL basin
averages remained
between 40-60% of normal; however, impacts remained negligible with at least
4 more months
remaining in the wet season (November-March).
Hawaii and Puerto Rico: A relatively dry week across Hawaii, except for a
few windward showers
(0.5-1") on the Big Island early in the week and locally heavy showers
(almost 4") across Kauai late
in the week Since the islands received generous rains from late October into
mid-November, this
week's dryness maintained the non-hydrological dryness (D0 and D1) on
Molokai, Lanai, and
western sections of Maui and the Big Island. In Puerto Rico, ever since
Hurricane Debby dropped
heavy rains on much of the island in late August, the northern and
southwestern sections of Puerto
Rico have measured subnormal precipitation, with 3-month totals under half
of normal and
accumulated deficits between 15 and 25 inches. Accordingly, abnormal dryness
(D0) is introduced
for the aforementioned portions.
Looking Ahead: Weather features through mid-December that may affect the
country's drought
areas include: 1) Tranquil weather should prevail across much of the Nation
until this weekend; 2) A
storm system dropping southeastward from Canada is forecast to drop light
snow on the northern
portions of the Rockies and Plains into the upper Midwest this weekend; 3) A
second storm is
forecast to develop in the central Rockies on Sunday and bring precipitation
to the northern half of
the Plains and western Corn Belt, and eventually the Great Lakes region,
Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys, and parts of the Delta and Southeast early next week. As the system
progresses eastward,
precipitation should also fall on the central Appalachians; 4) Significant
precipitation should bypass
drought areas of Texas and Florida through mid-week, and the sluggish start
to the wet season in the
Cascades and Sierra Nevada should continue well into next week; 5) no
immediate relief is expected
for both Puerto Rico and the leeward sides of the Hawaiian Islands.
=> Federal Disaster Funds Authorized For Montana Winter Storms
Washington, December 6, 2000 -- Federal disaster funds were made available
today to help
communities in six eastern Montana counties recover from the effects of a
series of severe winter
storms that hit the state last month, according to the head of the Federal
Emergency Management
Agency (FEMA).
FEMA Director James Lee Witt said President Clinton authorized the
assistance under a major
disaster declaration issued this afternoon. The declaration covers damage to
public property from the
storms that occurred from October 31 through November 20.
Under the declaration, Witt said the state and affected local governments in
the counties of Carter,
Fallon, Richland, Roosevelt, Sheridan and Wibaux are eligible to apply for
federal funding to pay 75
percent of the approved cost of repairing or replacing damaged public
facilities. Funding also will be
available to the state on a cost-shared basis for approved projects that
reduce future disaster risks.
Witt, who designated the counties eligible for the aid following the
declaration, indicated that
additional designations may be made later if requested by the state and
warranted by the results of
further damage assessments.
Steven R. Emory of FEMA was named by Witt to coordinate the federal relief
effort. Emory said
that procedures for requesting assistance will be explained at a series of
applicant briefings at
locations to be announced shortly in the affected areas.
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FREE 30 days of StormWarn by Email, Pager, PCS/GSM Phone, Business Fax at no
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=> Links Area
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (SAM)
Australia
Tropical Cyclone Sam was located off the northeast coast of Australia near
15.3 S 121.6 E at 12:00
UTC.
Sam has been moving in a southwesterly direction at 4 knots with maximum
sustained winds
estimated at 55
knots, gusts to 70 knots.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/IndOcean/TRCsam341_GM.jpg
TROPICAL CYCLONE 33W (Rumbia)
South China Sea
Tropical Cyclone 33W (Rumbia) was located southeast of Ho Chi Minh near 9.9
N 110.8 E at
12:00 UTC.
Rumbia has been in a moving westerly direction at 7 knots with maximum
sustained winds estimated
at 35 knots, gusts
to 45 knots.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/W_Pacific/TRCrumbia341_N4.jpg
FIRES IN BRAZIL
Brazil
Heat signatures (red) and smoke (light blue) are visible from fires burning
in the Maranhao region of
northeastern Brazil. Several smoke plumes are indicated by the yellow
arrows.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/Brazil/FSMHSbrzl341_N4.jpg
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