The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For December 6, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or Significant
Icing Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column-
=> Sponsored by The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery
**** ARTICLES ****
=> Article U.S. Weather Threats Assessment
=> Article Seedlings Available for Oklahoma Landowners
=> Article Southwest Forests Poised for Firestorms
=> Article The Fires Next Time
=> Article Erickson Hostage Update
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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Sponsored by the The Rothstein Catalog On Disaster Recovery
http://www.disastercenter.com/Rothstein/
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=> Subscribe/Unsubscribe information
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For December 6, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
------------------------------------------------------------
=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Tue...90 At San Diego/Gillespie CA
Low Wed...11 Below Zero At Eagle River And Rhinelander WI And Cambridge MN
=> Special Notes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Wed Dec 6 11:30:15 2000
Winter Storm
Arkansas
SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
Kansas
COLUMBUS KS...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING...
Michigan
WINTRY WEATHER TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...
New York
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...
Oklahoma
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
Pennsylvania
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS WARREN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT OF HEAVIER SNOW HAS ENDED
FOR THE TIME BEING.
Vermont
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight
There is less than a 2% probability of a tornado.
Hail Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger.
Wind Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of winds in excess of 50 knots.
Tomorrow's Risk -
There is less than a 5% probability of any severe weather tomorrow.
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or
Significant
Icing Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hour precipitation forecast is calling for less than 1 inch of
rainfall.
The 24 - 48 hour precipitation forecast is calling for less than 1 inch of
rainfall.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall is not expected to exceed flash flood values.
USA heavy snow and/or significant icing
>From noon to midnite today EST the probability of heavy snow is low over the
northwestern 2/3 of
Michigan's northern peninusla, western and northwestern Michigan, western
and northwestern New
York,
The moderate probability area is over northwestern Michigan, extreme
northwestern Pennsylvania
and portions of southwestern and central north NewYork.
The probability of significant icing is less than 20 percent.
>From midnite to noon tommorow EST the probability of heavy snow is low over
northeastern Ohio,
northwestern Pennsulvania, western and northwestern New York,
The moderate probability area is over western and northwestern New York,
The probability of significant icing is less than 20 percent.
=> USA Flood Report
NATIONAL HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
0800 AM EST WED DEC 06 2000
FLOOD SUMMARY
FLASH FLOODING:
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD AND/OR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS FOR:
ALASKA: PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
RIVER FLOODING:
RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH LOCATIONS EITHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INCLUDE:
ARKANSAS: THE CACHE RIVER
TEXAS: THE SULPHUR RIVER
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
The USA Fire Report and Forecast has not been updated.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 DEC 06 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN WEST CENTRAL UNITED STATES
(35.8 TO 40.3 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 DEC 5 22:54:54.00 36.8 N 121.4 W 9 km 3.9
NEAR Hollister, California
EARTHQUAKES IN STATE OF ALASKA
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 DEC 5 22:11:33.57 52.7 N 168.0 W 33 km 5.6
40 miles ESE of Nikolski, Alaska
00/12/05 22:11:33.57
FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
Epicenter: 52.702 -167.955
MW 5.9
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
No reports received
Wind Reports
No reports received
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column
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**** ARTICLES ****
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=> U.S. Weather Threats Assessment
Valid Friday, December 8, 2000 - Tuesday, December 19, 2000.
Summary of Forecasts & Threats
SYNOPSIS: Recent runs of the high-resolution models from the various
predictions are mostly in
agreement that a major cold outbreak into much of the West and north-central
parts of the country
will occur beginning this coming weekend and probably lasting through most
of the threats valid
period. Most of today's ensemble members and the ECMWF model have come into
agreement with
the MRF and its ensembles that the cold will be primarily in the western and
northern parts of the
Nation. This type of pattern usually is accompanied by widespread areas of
snow in the Plateau,
Rockies and northern and central Great Plains, with an area of icy mixed
precipitation along its
eastern boundary nearer the milder air that is expected to overspread the
East. At least one or two
storms will develop over the southern Rockies and move northeastward through
the southern half of
the Great Plains to the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes Region from
Sat Dec 9 through
Tue Dec 12. Later there is a possibility of snow and ice in parts of the
Pacific Northwest as storms
develop off the West Coast and moisture overruns unseasonably cold air
already in place.
THREATS
A major outbreak of Arctic air is expected over much of the West, spreading
eastward through the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes. The abnormally cold
weather is likely to
persist for a week or more with additional outbreaks of Arctic air.
Periods of snow and blowing snow, particularly in the Front Range and high
plains area, are
expected to develop as the cold air pushes south. At least one storm will
likely bring a dangerous icy
mix of precipitation to parts of the upper Mississippi Valley and western
Great Lakes Region.
There is a risk of strong downslope canyon winds preceding a possibly
damaging frost and/or freeze
in the California and Arizona winter crop areas Sat Dec 9 and Sun Dec 10.
There is a possibility of one or two snow and ice storms affecting parts of
the Pacific Northwest
around the middle of next week and late the following weekend.
Drought continues across the central Florida peninsula as well as over the
southern Appalachians
and western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee, but only the area in
Florida constitutes an
immediate threat to active agriculture.
DETAILED SUMMARY
For Friday December 8 through Sunday December 10: A major outbreak of Arctic
air is predicted
to push south from Canada into the western and north-central states. A
significant snowstorm with
blowing snow is likely to develop over the Plateau, southern and central
Rockies and adjacent high
plains area, and a frost or freeze is possible in some agricultural areas of
California and Arizona..
For Monday December 11 through Tuesday December 19: A storm moving out of
the Great Plains
and moving along the boundary of the advancing Arctic air is likely to bring
an icy mix of
precipitation to parts of the upper Mississippi Valley and western and
central parts of the Great
Lakes Region. Additional storms will bring abundant precipitation, some in
frozen or freezing forms,
to many parts of the country, but no major relief is forecast for drought
areas in the southern
Appalachians and in central Florida.
=> Seedlings Available for Oklahoma Landowners
DECEMBER 05 -- SHAWNEE, OK: Now is the time for rural landowners to take
advantage of
one of the best conservation deals in Oklahoma. The State Department of
Agriculture is accepting
orders for forest tree and shrub seedlings to plant on Oklahoma's rural
lands.
"The planting season is generally from early December through mid-April,"
State Forester Roger
Davis told the Shawnee News-Star. "Landowners who have conservation problems
or those who
want to diversify their income in the future should consider planting
trees." Davis said most of the
seedlings are grown from improved seed or native seed. Seedlings are
bare-root and 8 to 14 inches
tall; they must be used only for rural conservation projects.
"Although most trees are planted by private landowners, the state as a whole
benefits from these
plantings," Davis said. "Tree cover improves water quality and wildlife
habitat, reduces soil erosion,
protects crops and livestock, and provides timber that helps the state's
economy." Seedlings are sold
first-come first-served, and the minimum order is 200 trees. They cannot be
used for ornamental
trees, nor resold as living trees. The seedlings can be shipped to the
landowner, or they may be
picked up at the Forest Regeneration Center south of Norman.
Order forms are available at offices of Forestry Services, Conservation
Districts, Farm Service
Agency, NRCS and Cooperative Extension Service. Call your local forester or
the Department of
Agriculture at (405)521-3864 or the Forest Regeneration Center at
(800)517-FOREST for
information. The Shawnee News-Star story and the Natural Resources
Conservation Service are
also online.
=> Southwest Forests Poised for Firestorms
DECEMBER 05 -- ALBUQUERQUE, NM: Researchers in the Southwest look at
forests with
tree densities hundreds of times that of historical patterns, and they see
firestorms waiting to happen.
Timber densities today top 1000 and even 2000 trees per acre in Southwest
forests, according to a
report in the Albuquerque Journal, versus a normal historical range of 10 to
20 per acre. Fire-prone
species such as Douglas-fir that should be found mostly at higher elevations
are moving to much
lower elevations, according to researchers such as Tom Swetnam of the
University of Arizona in
Tucson.
Swetnam, director of the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research at the Tucson
campus, says that
tree-ring data show the Southwest's forests of 150 years ago were vastly
different from today. And
the fires of decades ago, because of those differences, also were entirely
different from today's.
Earlier forests had very low timber densities, while today's dense forests
have high populations of
smaller trees and ladder fuels, which carry fire into the forest canopy
where historically it didn't often
burn.
"You can see clear and striking evidence of fire burning repeatedly in these
forests," said Swetnam.
"But forests did not burn down."
He explained that fires burned mostly low to the ground, with flames only a
few inches to a few feet
high. Swetnam studies tree cross-sections that reveal a record - sometimes
of hundreds of years -
of what happened in the forest. He says many of the pine forests were almost
savannas with 10 or
20 trees per acre. Waist-high grasses choked out most new tree seedlings
attempting to sprout in
ponderosa forests. Fires of high intensity and severity did not occur in
such an environment.
But intensely hot fires did burn in forests of fir, spruce, and aspen - such
as in what is now
Yellowstone National Park. Fires above about 8500 feet elevation in northern
New Mexico were
rare, though, occurring in 100- to 300-year spans and in ecosystems that had
evolved to heal
quickly.
Swetnam says evidence of such fires can be seen in the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains in areas where
aspen now grow; after high-intensity fires at higher elevations, sun-loving
aspen spring up in the burn
area and dominate the landscape until a mixed conifer forest regenerates in
the shade of the aspen.
Photographs taken in the 19th century and repeated this century in the same
places show shocking
timber-density changes, Swetnam said. In a healthy lower-elevation ponderosa
pine forest, fire
should come as often as twice a decade. "We heard about the Cerro Grande
Fire, and its being the
biggest fire year in Southwest history," he said, but that isn't true. This
year, 7 to 8 million acres
burned in the Southwest. Historically, 50 million to 100 million acres
likely burned in drier years.
Swetnam points out that newspaper accounts from the 19th century report
individual fires of a million
acres or more, but they were largely ground fires.
Dog-hair thickets - thick clusters of small, unhealthy trees competing for
inadequate water and
nutrients - now choke many of the West's forests and are essentially waiting
to ignite. Research at
Bandelier National Monument showed that just 20 years without fire primes a
forest for a crown fire,
according to retired Los Alamos National Laboratory scientist Terry Foxx,
who helped with a
1970s University of New Mexico study of Bandelier's fire history. Much of
the area, prior to the
massive 1977 La Mesa Fire, was without fire for 80 years or more.
The Albuquerque Journal story and the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research are
both online. For
more information on forests of the Southwest, see the websites of the
Southwest Region of the
Forest Service and the Southwest Area Coordination Center.
=> The Fires Next Time
DECEMBER 05 -- BOISE, IDAHO: A symposium sponsored by the Andrus Center for
Public
Policy and the Idaho Statesman is scheduled for Thursday, December 7 at
Boise State University.
The conference will begin with an overview of fire history by Stephen Pyne,
author of Fire in
America, followed by three panels. The first will consider fire science, and
will include Dr. Robert
Nelson of the University of Maryland, Dr. Leon Neuenschwander of the
University of Idaho, and
Ross Gorte of the Congressional Research Service. Following that discussion,
a moderated panel of
stakeholders - including national leaders representing the timber industry,
grazing, the environment,
tribal governments, sportsmen, state lands, and the insurance industry -
will consider the effects of
wildfires and what changes, from their perspectives, should be made.
The conference will conclude with a discussion among current and former
policy-makers. Expected
participants include governors from the states most affected by wildfires,
key members of Congress,
and national directors of federal land agencies. More information is online
from the Idaho
Statesman.
=> Erickson Hostage Update
DECEMBER 06 -- CENTRAL POINT, OR: An Ecuadorean military spokesman denied
that the
kidnappers of eight foreign oil workers, including three from Oregon's
Erickson Air-Crane, have
demanded an $80 million ransom.
"There was a version that came out in the newspapers, and that's what it
was: a version from the
newspapers," Walter Nieto, the defense ministry spokesman, told the
Associated Press on Monday.
Nieto said reports that the kidnappers had demanded $80 million were based
on rumors.
According to the Oregonian, a story published in a newspaper in Ecuador in
November attributed
the $80 million ransom figure to defense minister Hugo Unda.
One military source said the interested parties have hired a team of
international specialists who are
negotiating with the kidnappers to release the hostages.
Military personnel have also been searching the jungle for the hostages
since they were kidnapped
from an oil camp in the El Coca region in October. Three of the Americans
are from Oregon -
Arnold Alford, Steve Derry, and Jason Weber. They and the New Zealander,
Dennis Corrin, are
employees of Erickson Air-Crane, a heavy-lift helicopter company that flies
helitankers on wildland
fires. The story's online from the Oregonian.
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=> Links Area
>From UPI,
35,000 veterans to get nerve agent notice
Tuesday, 5 December 2000 17:16 (ET)
http://www.vny.com/cf/News/upidetail.cfm?QID=141652
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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