The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For November 20, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or Significant
Icing Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column- Larry Cosgrove's WeatherAmerica Pre-Holiday Travel Forecast
=> Sponsored by the SandbaggerTM
**** ARTICLES ****
=> Article Hawaii Disaster Update
=> Article Presidential Proclamation on Thanksgiving Day 2000
=> Article Virtual Forum Presentation New JCAHO Emergency Management
Standards
for Health Care Facilities
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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Sponsored by the THE ROTHSTEIN CATALOG ON DISASTER RECOVERY
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The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For November 20, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Sun...87 At Fort Pierce And Vero Beach FL
Low Mon...11 Below Zero At West Yellowstone MT
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Mon Nov 20 11:47:54 2000
Flood
Louisiana
FOR THE CALCASIEU RIVER AT OLD TOWN BAY, THE LATEST STAGE WAS 3.4 FT
AT 8 AM. FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FT. THE CALCASIEU RIVER AT OLD TOWN BAY
IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT 4.0 FT TUESDAY EVENING. MINOR FLOODING OF
GOOS FERRY ROAD WILL OCCUR
Texas
SANDIES CREEK NEAR WESTHOFF LATEST STAGE IS 21.0 FEET AT 10 AM
MONDAY...FLOOD STAGE IS 21 FEET. THE CREEK IS CRESTING NOW NEAR
FLOOD STAGE
Non Precipitation
Arkansas
..LAKE WIND ADVISORY NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...
Florida
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...
...FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...
Georgia
TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE
MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.
Louisiana
Mississippi
.A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
Ohio
...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR A LARGE
PART OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
South Carolina
HARD FREEZE TONIGHT
Tennessee
Virginia
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
MUCH OF EAST TENNESSEE...
Winter Storm
Indiana
VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL
CAUSE
COLD NORTHWEST WINDS TO BLOW ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS
OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INDIANA TOLL ROAD.
Michigan
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN... .LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF US-131 DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...WITH UP TO 3 MORE INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
Minnesota
HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE TODAY...
North Carolina
SNOWY AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...
.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.
New York
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH TUESDAY...
TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY.
Ohio
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH CONTINUES FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 6 INCHES
OR MORE OF SNOW TUESDAY AT SOME LOCATIONS. BESIDES THE
SNOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ALONG
WITH DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL COULD BECOME DANGEROUS.
Pennsylvania
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH CONTINUES FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
South Carolina
SNOWY...WINDY AND COLD TONIGHT...
.A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
Virginia
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
Wisconsin
HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
West Virginia
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight
There is less than a 2% probability of a tornado.
Hail Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger.
Wind Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of winds in excess of 50 knots.
Tomorrow's Risk -
There is less than a 5% probability of any severe weather tomorrow.
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or
Significant
Icing Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hour precipitation forecast is calling for less than 1 inch of
rainfall.
The 24 - 48 hour precipitation forecast is calling for less than 1 inch of
rainfall.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall is not expected to exceed flash flood values.
USA heavy snow and/or significant icing
The probability of heavy snow is low over Michigan's northern peninsula
except the far eastern area,
the western 1/3 of Michigan, the far central north area of Indiana, far
northwest Pennsylvania,
western New York and far central north New York.
The moderate probability area is over the central and western areas of
Michigan's northern
peninsula, western Michigan, and far western New York.
The high probability area is over far southwestern Michigan and far western
New York.
The probability of significant icing is less than 20 percent.
Tomorrow the probability of heavy snow is low over Michigan's northern
peninsula except the far
eastern area, the western 1/3 of Michigan, the central north area of
Indiana, Pennsylvania, except the
southwest, central and eastern areas, western New York, far central north
New York, and far
western Maryland.
The moderate probability area is over the central north area of Michigan's
northern peninsula,
western Michigan, far northwestern Ohio, far north northwest Pennsylvania,
far southwestern New
York and far central north New York.
The high probability area is over far southwestern Michigan and far
southwestern New York.
The probability of significant icing is less than 20 percent.
=> USA Flood Report
NATIONAL HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
0730 AM EST MON NOV 20 2000
FLOOD SUMMARY
QUIET WEEKEND
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS ON
SATURDAY AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY, NO NEW FLOODING
WAS REPORTED OVER THE WEEKEND. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.
FLASH FLOODING:
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD AND/OR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:
TEXAS:
SATURDAY: BEXAR, BRAZORIA, GALVESTON AND GILLESPIE
COUNTIES
MISSISSIPPI:
SUNDAY: JONES AND LAMAR COUNTIES
RIVER FLOODING:
RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH LOCATIONS EITHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INCLUDE:
ARKANSAS: THE CACHE RIVER
LOUISIANA: THE VERMILLION RIVER
TEXAS: THE GUADALUPE AND SULPHUR RIVERS
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
Not Available
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 NOV 20 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
(40.3 TO 50.0 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 NOV 19 12:54:50.00 40.5 N 119.5 W 4 km 4.3
15 miles SW of Gerlach, Nevada
EARTHQUAKES IN STATE OF ALASKA
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 NOV 19 22:14:31.04 51.0 N 130.1 W 10 km 4.6
115 miles WNW of Port Hardy, BC, Canada
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
No reports received
Wind Reports
No reports received
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column -- Larry Cosgrove's WeatherAmerica Pre-Holiday Travel
Forecast
Abundant Lake Effect Snowfall Poised To Slow Pre-Holiday Travel; At Least
Two Shots Of
Arctic Air Likely To Keep Eastern Half Of Nation In The Icebox
Weather Summary Through Next 72 Hours
I can tell you that it is already quite cold here in Secaucus NJ, and from
the looks of the 850mb and 1000-500mb thickness forecasts, it will only get
colder this week. There have been Novembers more frigid than this, but
synoptic indicators are pointing toward a long siege of below normal
temperatures in the eastern two-thirds of the nation. One intrusion of cAk
values is already in place over the Midwest/Great Lakes, and yet another is
likely to arrive prior to Thanksgiving. And even though moisture is lacking,
many communities in the prone leeside snowbelts are going to be in for a
three day run of near-blizzard conditions. So when you combine the threat of
widespread cold, wind, and snowfall in and close to heavily populated areas,
the looming holiday travel period looks to be awfully slow.
Once again, the key feature concerning the introduction of Arctic values is
the huge storm complex over the Great Lakes. On its own, despite the
formidable convergence of bitter cold, strong wind fields (175 knots and
higher at 250mb), and vorticity, this disturbance would be no big deal. But
when the vigorous dynamics of this cyclone interact with the open,
relatively
warm
waters of the individual lakes, heavy snow is virtually assured. The
low-topped convective squalls that form in flow situations with a north or
west component can produce zero visibility, surface winds in excess of 50
m.p.h., lightning, and hail. When all is said and done sometime on Day 4,
when a more stable domain will be taking control, some localities may have
been hit with upwards of 2 to 4 feet of snow. There should also be sizable
accumulations on west and north facing slopes of some ranges in the
Appalachian system. These snowbursts will hamper automobile transit on such
critical highways as the New York State Thruway, Pennsylvania Turnpike, and
the West Virginia Turnpike, among other superroutes.
The full-latitude, neutral-tilt nature of the upper trough in eastern North
America insures that the cold air will eventually reach to the Gulf of
Mexico and even the Greater Antilles in the near term. And even with the
modification that occurs due to interaction with land and water, most
observation points to the right of the Rocky Mountains will fall 20 degrees
(F) off seasonal normals, with new record lows likely in many places. A
complication will ensue on Wednesday, when an intense 500mb shortwave
streaks
almost due southward out of Nunavut AR. This energy will be accompanied by a
small fluctuation in 1000-500mb thicknesses (rise, then fall) across the
lower Great Lakes and Northeast during the 60-72 hour time frame. With ETA
and UKMET vorticity forecasts approaching 28 units, there could be a
paralyzing mini-blizzard along and slightly to the left of the surface storm
track. This scenario almost always creates a 4-6 hour period of havoc as
thundersnow rolls out ahead of the best dynamics. Numerical model
illustrations target a stripe from North Bay ONT....Batavia NY....New Haven
CT....Dennis MA as the highest UVV core. While the jump across the higher
elevations of NY and NJ may reduce accumulations to the minimal ranges (less
than 1 inch), there could well be brief whiteouts across much of the
Interstate 95 corridor above Trenton NJ just prior to Turkey day.
Interestingly, this system and its immediate predecessor could actually
mature into small mid-latitude cyclones as they move into ME and the
Maritime
Provinces. This leads me to believe that those regions could be looking at
anywhere from 4-12 inches of the white stuff before all is said and done.
The western states will start to lose the relative protection of the thumb
projection ridge by Day 3. Erosion will first occur over CA, where clouds
offshore portend a small (but important) disturbance which will gather
moisture during the near term. Rain, possibly in convective forms, may
develop across the Southwest, but should be limited to an area south of the
Grand Canyon during the short range. Another set of disturbances across the
Eastern Pacific Ocean should erode the blocking anticyclone, bringing first
cloud cover and then precipitation to much of BC during Wednesday.
>From Larry Cosgrove's WeatherAmerica
http://weatheramerica.net/
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**** ARTICLES ****
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=> Hawaii Disaster Update
Honolulu, November 17, 2000 -- Federal, state, local and voluntary agencies
are working in
partnership to help Big Island residents following the recent storms and
flooding. The following is a
summary of ongoing response and recovery efforts for the week of November
10-16. State Civil
Defense (SCD) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) will update
this
information weekly from the Joint Information Center at Ft. Shafter.
More than 610 Big Island flood victims have registered for assistance
through FEMA's toll-free
registration number as of close of business, Thursday, November 16, 2000.
The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) has approved $797,300.00 in low
interest disaster
loans. SBA presented the first disaster checks in Hilo on November 16, 2000
in a ceremony
presided over by U.S. Senator Daniel Akaka.
To date the American Red Cross (ARC) has provided overnight shelter for 214
people evacuated
because of the disaster; 1289 meals have been served. The Red Cross Service
Center, located at
the Afook-Chinen Civic Center will close today. ARC services will transition
to the State of
Hawaii/FEMA Disaster Recovery Center.
To date, 98 FEMA disaster housing checks totaling $307,442.00 have been
issued to flood victims
requiring rental assistance or minimal repairs to their homes.
277 flood victims have visited the Hilo Disaster Recovery Center seeking
recovery and assistance
information as of 6 p.m., Thursday, November 16, 2000.
Residents of the Big Island who were affected by the severe storms and
flooding and who have not
yet registered for assistance are reminded to call the toll free
teleregistration number
1-800-462-9029. Speech- and hearing-impaired call 1-800-462-7585 (TTY).
Updated: November 20, 2000
=> Proclamation on Thanksgiving Day 2000
BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
A PROCLAMATION
We have much to be grateful for this Thanksgiving Day. Our Nation
is free, prosperous, and at peace. The remarkable growth in human
knowledge and technological innovation offers real hope for defeating
the age-old enemies of humanity: poverty, famine, and disease. Our
dynamic economy continues to generate millions of new jobs, and, as
wages rise and unemployment falls to its lowest level in more than a
generation, millions of American families are sharing in the bounty of
this great land for the first time.
Sharing in God's blessings is at the heart of Thanksgiving and at
the core of the American spirit. At Plymouth in 1621, the Pilgrims
celebrated their first harvest in the New World thanks to the generosity
of their Native American neighbors. In return, the Pilgrims invited
these tribal members to share in their harvest festival. At
Thanksgiving this year and every year, in worship services and family
celebrations across our country, Americans carry on that tradition of
giving, sharing not only with family and friends, but also with those in
need throughout their communities.
Every generation of Americans has benefited from the generosity,
talents, efforts, and contributions of their fellow citizens. All of us
have been enriched by the diverse cultures, traditions, and beliefs of
the millions of people who, by birth or choice, have come to call
America their home. All of us are beneficiaries of our founders' wisdom
and of the service and sacrifice of our men and women in uniform. While
Americans are an independent people, we are interdependent as well, and
our greatest achievements are those we have accomplished together.
As we celebrate Thanksgiving, let us remember with gratitude that
despite our differences in background, age, politics, or race, each of
us is a member of our larger American family and that, working together,
there is nothing we cannot accomplish in this promising new century.
NOW, THEREFORE, I, WILLIAM J. CLINTON, President of the United
States of America, by virtue of the authority vested in me by the
Constitution and laws of the United States, do hereby proclaim Thursday,
November 23, 2000, as a National Day of Thanksgiving. I encourage all
the people of the United States to assemble in their homes, places of
worship, and community centers to share the spirit of fellowship and
prayer and to reinforce the ties of family and community; to express
heartfelt thanks to God for our many blessings; and to reach out in
gratitude and friendship to our brothers and sisters across this land
who, together, comprise our great American family.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this seventeenth
day of November, in the year of our Lord two thousand, and of the
Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and
twenty-fifth.
WILLIAM J. CLINTON
=> Virtual Forum Presentation New JCAHO Emergency Management Standards
for
Health Care Facilities
November 22, 2000 -- 12:00 Noon Eastern Time
New JCAHO Emergency Management Standards for Health Care Facilities
K. Joanne McGlown, R.N, MHHA, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
Jacksonville State University
K. JOANNE McGLOWN, R.N, MHHA, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
Jacksonville State University
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----Dr. McGlown resides in central Alabama, where she is an Assistant Professor in the Master's of Public Administration (M.P.A.) - Concentration in Emergency Management program at Jacksonville State University and a healthcare strategist and management consultant to hospitals and health systems. Dr. McGlown entered the disaster and emergency field in 1971, obtaining her EMT, EMT-I, and Paramedic certifications by 1974. She is a Registered Nurse and holds degrees in Nursing (ASN), Emergency Medical Services Administration (AAS), Fire Science Administration (AAS), a BS in Sociology/Psychology, a Masters in Hospital and Health Administration (MHHA), and a doctorate (Ph.D.) in Administration of Health Services from the University of Alabama at Birmingham. She is also a Certified Legal Nurse Consultant.
She has held numerous positions in emergency management (including Planning & Management Consultant with FEMA in the early 1980's), in Nursing (including Corporate VP of Patient Care Services for a large for-profit healthcare company and Director of Nursing for a private hospital), and healthcare administration (including hospital Chief Operating Officer, Corporate Vice-President of Acquisitions for a large healthcare company, and senior healthcare consultant for Ernst & Young). She actively participates in local disaster activities and is a member of the Volunteer Operations Staff of the Jefferson County (Birmingham area) EMA. She currently serves on the task force for chemical and hazardous materials disasters of the World Association of Emergency and Disaster Medicine, where she also serves as a member of the organization's Board of Directors for the 1998-2001 term. Dr. McGlown is a frequent speaker at regional, national and international meetings in her areas of expertise.
Dr. McGlown's research interests include the effect of specific disasters on the delivery of hospital and health services, executive decisionmaking in the evacuation of hospitals, and healthcare system aspects of preparedness for and response to chemical and biological agents and WMD - including decontamination processes in field and hospital settings. Her work has been published in both academic and trade journals.
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=> Links Area U. S. Electoral College National Archives and Records Administration's Electoral College Home Page. http://www.nara.gov/fedreg/elctcoll/
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