The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For November 18, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or Significant
Icing Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column-
=> Sponsored by the SandbaggerTM
**** ARTICLES ****
=> Article NEMA and Friends Launch Emergency Management Accreditation
Program
=> Article A New Working Paper and Quick Response Report from the Hazards
Center
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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Sponsored by the THE ROTHSTEIN CATALOG ON DISASTER RECOVERY
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=> Subscribe/Unsubscribe information
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For November 18, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Fri...87 At Miami FL
Low Sat...13 Below Zero At Leadville CO
=> Special Notes
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook For The North Atlantic Caribbean Sea
And
The Gulf Of Mexico
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Sat Nov 18 11:30:52 2000
Flash Flood
Texas
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1215 PM CST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PEOPLE IN... BEXAR COUNTY
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
* UNTIL 200 PM CST
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
IN SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...THE FLOOD
WATCHIS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES...
VERNON...RAPIDES...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...ALLEN...
EVANGELINE...ST. LANDRY...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...UPPER ST. MARTIN...LOWER ST. MARTIN...
CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARTY.
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES... TYLER...JASPER...NEWTON...HARDIN...ORANGE...AND JEFFERSON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA TODAY.
Flood
Texas
FOR THE GUADALUPE RIVER AT VICTORIA...THE 8 AM SATURDAY STAGE WAS
14.3 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET AND BANKFULL STAGE IS 21.0 FEET.
MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH THE RIVER FORECAST TO CREST AROUND
22.7 FEET EARLY TUESDAY.
Non Precipitation
Arizona
...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH 400 PM
TODAY...
Montana
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FORT PECK LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...
South Dakota
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES SO...NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE...GUSTING TO OVER 60 MPH IN SOME
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
Wyoming
A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED TODAY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...
Winter Storm
Michigan
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY AND TONIGHT...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
Minnesota
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
Montana
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA...
North Dakota
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
New Mexico
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS TODAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY...
New York
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT...
Texas
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHWEST HALF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEAST HALF TONIGHT...
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight
There is less than a 2% probability of a tornado.
Hail Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger.
Wind Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of winds in excess of 50 knots.
Tomorrow's Risk -
There is less than a 5% probability of any severe weather tomorrow.
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or
Significant
Icing Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hour precipitation forecast is calling for over 3 inch of rainfall
over from southwest to central
east Louisiana, and far southwest Mississippi.
The 2 inch area covers far east southeast Texas, Louisiana except the
southeast and northwest
areas, southcentral and southern Mississippi except the far southern area,
central south Alabama est
to west.
The 1 inch area covers southeast Texas, Louisiana except the far southeast
and far northwest areas,
central and southern Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, central
Georgia, and central west
South Carolina.
The 24 - 48 hour precipitation forecast is calling for over 1 inch of
rainfall over central north
Gerogia, South Carolinia excep the southern and northwestern areas, and the
south southeast 1/2 of
North Carolina.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall is expected to exceed flash flood values over east southeast Texas,
central and southern
Louisiana, and central ans southern Mississippi.
USA heavy snow and/or significant icing
The probability of heavy snow is low over is eastern Michigan, far
northwestern and central north
New York.
The moderate probability area is over central western Michigan.
The probability of significant icing is less than 20 percent.
Tomorrow the probability of heavy snow is low over eastern Michigan, far
northwestern and central
north New York.
The probability of significant icing is less than 20 percent.
=> USA Flood Report
The United States Flood Summary is not available.
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SITUATION REPORT
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2000 - 1000 MST
NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS LEVEL I
CURRENT SITUATION:
Initial attack activity was light in the Southern Area. Nationwide, no new
large fires were reported.
With predicted precipitation in the Appalachian states, fire activity is
expected to remain low.
Demobilization of resources from the Southern Area fires is nearly complete.
OUTLOOK:
*** A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR SANTA
ANA WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ***
High pressure aloft Sunday and Monday will give way to a low pressure system
off the coast of
southern California Tuesday and Wednesday. This low will move onshore and
bring a chance of
showers Thursday. The strong offshore winds this weekend will diminish on
Sunday. Winds for the
upcoming week will generally be southwest or onshore at 5 to 15 mph. High
temperatures will range
from the 40s and 50's in the mountains to the 60's and 70's in the valleys.
Desert temperatures in the
low 80's may return by midweek. Minimum relative humidities will range from
10 to 30 percent.
In Virginia and North Carolina, a cold front will bring a chance of rain
Sunday and early Monday.
Conditions will be cool and dry through the remainder of the week as a west
to northwest flow is
expected to take hold. High temperatures will be in the 40's and 50's, with
30's in the mountains.
Minimum relative humidities will range from 40 to 60 percent. Winds will be
northwest at 5 to 15
mph.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 NOV 18 at 00:15 UTC
NO EVENTS
NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. (REVISED)
Epicenter: -5.495 151.657
MW 7.6
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
No reports received
Wind Reports
No reports received
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column
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**** ARTICLES ****
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=> NEMA and Friends Launch Emergency Management Accreditation Program
Recognizing that state and local emergency management programs play a
crucial role in creating safe communities and reducing disaster
impacts, a dozen national organizations have cooperatively developed
the Emergency Management Accreditation Program - EMAP.
The National Emergency Management Association (NEMA), National League
of Cities, Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Governors
Association, U.S. Department of Transportation, and several other
organizations helped create EMAP to promote continuous improvement of
both state and local emergency management programs. EMAP provides
national standards through which emergency management programs can
both demonstrate success and accountability and determine areas and
issues where resources are needed.
Because gauging the capabilities of state and local programs before a
disaster strikes is a major challenge for government and community
leaders, the goal of EMAP is to provide a meaningful, voluntary
accreditation process that can be used by state, territorial, and
local programs. By offering consistent standards and a fair
accreditation process, the EMAP developers feel that the program will
strengthen communities' abilities to prepare for and respond to all
types of hazards, from tornadoes and earthquakes to school violence
and bioterrorism. Accreditation is voluntary and not tied to any
funding. Again, its intent is to encourage examination of strengths
and weaknesses, pursuit of corrective measures, and communication and
planning among different sectors of government and the community -
particularly in light of new, emerging problems such as changing
climate and weather patterns and the threat of terrorism.
In 2001, this new program will pilot test accreditation standards and
procedures within two state emergency management programs. Following
these tests, EMAP will refine its procedures and materials and offer
the accreditation process to all U.S. state and territorial emergency
management programs. In 2002, the program expects to pilot test the
accreditation process among local emergency management programs. The
process will include an application, self-assessment, on-site
assessment by an outside review team, and committee and commission
review of compliance with EMAP standards; it will also require
re-accreditation every three years.
EMAP currently operates under the auspices of and with staff support
from NEMA. Collaboration with interested organizations and individuals
as well as use of existing assessment and standards materials have
helped minimize initial costs. The developers intend the program to
become self-supporting through application and re-accreditation fees.
In the near future, the current EMAP steering committee will be
superseded by a nine-member commission with broad representation, and
as soon as is practical the commission will be incorporated as an
independent entity.
For more information about EMAP, contact Emily DeMers, Accreditation
Coordinator, NEMA, c/o Council of State Governments, P.O. Box 11910,
Lexington, KY 40578-1910; (859) 244-8210; fax: (859) 244-8239; e-mail:
edemers{at}csg.org; WWW: http://www.nemaweb.org.
=> A New Working Paper and Quick Response Report from the Hazards Center
Emergency planning and management increasingly depend on computer-
based tools that gather and analyze various kinds of data and provide
decision support for prevention, mitigation, response, and recovery.
Often, various technologies are combined to create more powerful
decision-support tools, but such amalgamation can lead to problems.
Natural Hazards Working Paper #105, "Challenges in Designing Spatial
Decision Support Systems for Evacuation Planning," by F. Nisha de
Silva of the Department of Management Studies, University of Aberdeen,
U.K., identifies and analyzes the specific problems faced when two
technologies - simulation modeling and geographical information
systems (GISs) - were used to create a prototype decision support tool
for evacuation planning called the Configurable Evacuation Management
and Planning Simulator (CEMPS). CEMPS was designed to aid planning for
and management of evacuation during nuclear facility emergencies.
The paper focuses on issues related to the behavioral and decision-
making processes of the various players in the evacuation system,
logistics, the generation of realistic scenarios for testing
contingency plans, the validation of decision support tools, and
future trends in technology and emergency planning that decision
support system developers should take into account.
"Challenges in Designing Spatial Decision Support Systems for
Evacuation Planning" is available from the Natural Hazards Center Web
site: http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/wp/wp105/wp105.html.
A complete list of on-line Working Papers is available from
http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/wp/wp.html.
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Shipping: Currently, item can be shipped only within the U.S.
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FREE 30 days of StormWarn by Email, Pager, PCS/GSM Phone, Business Fax at no
cost*
Sign up today and you'll receive no obligation, no commitment StormWarn . If
you find it helpful, you can then decide to continue service at very low
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*Direct pages and faxes are limited to 50 bulletins during the trial period.
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=> Links Area
FIRES IN US NORTHWEST
Oregon
Heat signatures are visible from a number of fires burning in Oregon. Snow
cover over
various areas of the region is also visible.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/US_Northwest/FSMHSusNW321_N4.jpg
Montana
A number of fires continue to burn in western Montana. Some of these may be
hotspots from the
summer's wildfires.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/US_Northwest/FHSusMT321_N4.jpg
FIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
California
This 2 X zoom (resolution 1 km) captures several heat signatures (red) and
smoke (light blue) from
fires burning in northern California.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/US_California/FSMHSusCA321_N4.jpg
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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