The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For November 15, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or Significant
Icing Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column-
=> Sponsored by the SandbaggerTM
**** ARTICLES ****
=> Article National Weather Service Day 3-10 U.S. Threats
=> Article Quitting smoking can be an uphill battle
=> Article Stage Two Electrical Emergency Called Yesterday by California ISO
=> Article Jasper Fire Rehab Proposed
=> Article The U.S. Fire Administration has received notice of the following
firefighter
fatality:
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For November 15, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Tue...84 At Opa Locka Marathon And Pembroke Pines FL
Low Wed...8 Below Zero At Riverton WY
=> Special Notes
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook For The North Atlantic Caribbean Sea
And
The Gulf Of Mexico
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are
moving westward over
northeastern venezuela and the southern windward islands.
Tropical storm formation is not expected through thursday.
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Wed Nov 15 11:25:12 2000
Non Precipitation
Alabama
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...
Georgia
.A COLD HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH
CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD FROST.
Kansas
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS HELPING TO
INDUCE STRONG SOUTH WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
North Carolina
...A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OUTER BANKS AND LOCATIONS
ALONG THE SHORELINE...
New Mexico
...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TODAY...
South Carolina
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH
CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD FROST.
Texas
...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TODAY...
Winter Storm
Iowa
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS INCLUDING LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING
RAINAND EXTREME WIND CHILLS.
Idaho
SNOW ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...
THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE WASATCH FRONT REMAINS IN EFFECT
Illinois
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...
Minnesota
...ACCUMULATING SNOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT...
New York
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR
CHAUTAUQUA CATTARAUGUS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES...
South Dakota
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
Utah
SNOW ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...
Wisconsin
ACCUMULATING SNOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT...
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight
There is less than a 2% probability of a tornado.
Hail Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger.
Wind Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of winds in excess of 50 knots.
Tomorrow's Risk -
There is a 5% probability of any severe weather tomorrow over southern
Louisiana, southern
Alabama, southern Mississippi, and the western portion of Florida's
panhandle.
The 15% probability area covers far southern Louisiana
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or
Significant
Icing Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hour precipitation forecast is calling for less than 1 inch of
rainfall.
The 24 - 48 hour precipitation forecast is calling for over 1 inch of
rainfall over Louisiana except the
northwest 1/4 and the far southeast areas, the southwest 1/2 of Mississippi,
Alabama except the far
southeast and northern areas, and central west Georgia.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall is not expected to exceed flash flood values.
USA heavy snow and/or significant icing
The probability of heavy snow is low over far northeast Nebraska, far
northwest Iowa, southeast
South Dakota, and southeast Minnesota.
The probability of significant icing is less than 20 percent.
Tomorrow the probability of heavy snow is low over southeast Minnesota and
the central portion of
Wisconsin east to west.
The probability of significant icing is less than 20 percent.
=> USA Flood Report
NATIONAL HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
08:30 AM EST WED NOV 15 2000
FLOOD SUMMARY
RESIDUAL MINOR RIVER FLOODING
MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED ON A FEW RIVERS IN
TEXAS, MINNESOTA AND ARKANSAS, WITH MOST RIVERS FALLING TOWARDS
FLOOD STAGE.
FLASH FLOODING:
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD AND/OR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE LAST DAY FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS (IN
ALPHABETICAL ORDER, BY STATE):
HAWAII: THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF HAWAII ISLAND,
PARTICULARLY THE NORTH AND SOUTH HILO DISTRICTS, PUNA,
HAMAKUA AND WINDWARD KOHALA
RIVER FLOODING:
RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH LOCATIONS EITHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INCLUDE (IN ALPHABETICAL
ORDER, BY STATE): :
ARKANSAS: THE CACHE RIVER
MINNESOTA: THE TWO RIVERS AND BUFFALO RIVERS
NEBRASKA: THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER
ICE JAMS ARE CAUSING THE RIVER TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IN
A FEW PLACES.
TEXAS: THE SULPHUR, NUECES, AND GUADALUPE RIVERS
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
Is not yet available
=> USA Earthquake Report
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 NOV 15 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
(29.0 TO 35.8 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 NOV 13 23:06:03.00 33.7 N 117.9 W 5 km 2.9
5 miles W of Irvine, California
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
No reports received
Wind Reports
No reports received
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column
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**** ARTICLES ****
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=> National Weather Service Day 3-10 U.S. Threats
Valid Friday, November 17, 2000 - Tuesday, November 28, 2000.
Summary of Forecasts & Threats
SYNOPSIS: Cold temperatures relative to normal are expected over most areas
during this period
as several vigorous troughs march across the country. A series of storms are
expected to affect
Alaska, bringing strong winds to much of the region and high waves along the
west and south
coasts.
THREATS
Locally heavy snow is possible across portions of the Great Lakes region.
A series of storms is predicted to affect Alaska, bringing gales and high
waves and tides, especially
to the western and southern coasts of Alaska.
The first freeze of the season is possible for parts of the deep South,
including the Florida
panhandle.
Long-term drought also continues over portions of the central Great Plains,
Montana and Texas, and
much of the South, but further relief of drought conditions is indicated for
most of these areas.
DETAILED SUMMARY
For Friday November 17 through Sunday November 19: Unusually cold
temperatures relative to
normal are expected over much of the nation. Another in a series of cyclonic
storms is predicted to
hit Alaska, bringing strong winds and high waves to the western and southern
Alaska coasts during
this period. The MRF model is forecasting a possibility of locally heavy
snowfall over portions of the
Great Lakes region during Nov 18-19, with another event possible between Nov
21-23. Other
areas of concern, though not regarded as major threats, include the
possibility of light snow and/or a
mix over West Texas and eastern New Mexico on Saturday, Nov 18th and Sunday,
Nov 19th, and
also the possibility of gusty winds and residual snowfall over extreme
eastern New England, from a
departing East coast storm, also on Nov 18th.
For Monday November 20 through Tuesday November 28: For this period the main
threats appear
to be the continuing long-term drought, although additional easing of that
situation is indicated, along
with additional Alaskan storms.
=> Quitting smoking can be an uphill battle.
By Staff Sgt. Kathleen T. Rhem, USA
American Forces Press Service
WASHINGTON, Nov. 15, 2000 --
"Some people can quit cold turkey, and others can't," said
Dr. John Mazzuchi, deputy for clinical and program policy
in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for
Health Affairs. "Some people need nicotine-replacement
therapy and behavior counseling."
In a recent message to all Defense Department employees,
Secretary of Defense William Cohen called avoidance of all
tobacco products an imperative. "Make the personal choice
to be as fit and healthy as possible," he wrote.
Help is available online from any number of sources. You
just have to know where to look.
o <a href= "http://www.cancer.org" >American Cancer Society</a>,
www.cancer.org.
This site is full of sobering statistics about what smoking
does to your health and a list of the different types of
cancers that can be caused by smoking -- nothing like scare
tactics to encourage quitting. But it's also full of
strategies for quitting and tips for not picking the habit
up again after you've quit.
o <a href= "http://www.lungusa.org/tobacco" >American Lung Association</a>,
www.lungusa.org/tobacco.
This site features a smoking-cessation action plan and fact
sheets on smoking-cessation resources and nicotine-
replacement therapies. It also has a link called "Seven
Steps to a Smoke-Free Life".
o <a href= "http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/news.htm" >Centers for Disease
Control and
Prevention</a>, www.cdc.gov/tobacco/news.htm.
This site is packed with stats and facts about the evils of
smoking and recent smoking-cessation guidelines released by
the U.S. Public Health Service.
o <a href= "www.armymedicine.army.mil/armymed/default2.htm" >Office of the
Surgeon General of
the Army</a>,
www.armymedicine.army.mil/armymed/default2.htm.
A site search reveals several articles on the benefits of
quitting and what the Army is doing to encourage soldiers
to stop smoking.
This list is not all-inclusive. There are countless sites
out there relating to the dangers of smoking. One can get
lost in cyberspace for hours just by following links off
the four sites above. Happy Web surfing, and good luck
quitting.
=> Stage Two Electrical Emergency Called By California ISO
Cold Snap and Plant Outages Strain Operating Reserves
(Folsom, CA) The California Independent System Operator (California ISO) is
declaring a Stage
Two Electrical Emergency today, Tuesday, November 14, 2000, as operating
reserves fall below
five percent. The Stage Two is in effect from 5:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. Higher
than usual heat demand
for this time of year coupled with an estimated 12,000 megawatts of
generation off line due to
planned and unplanned maintenance has reduced operating reserves. In
addition, a third of the
imported power California expected from the Northwest did not materialize
because of the severity
of the cold snap affecting Oregon and Washington. Demand across the
California ISO Control Area
is expected to peak at 32,920 megawatts around 6:00 p.m. tonight. The
California ISO anticipates
possible activation of the voluntary load interruption programs in the
state, but is watching power
usage load curves before making the decision to call on the customers in the
hope that voluntary
curtailments can be spared today. The ISO urges interruptible customers to
wait to shed their
contracted electrical load until specified to do so by their local utility.
Interruptible customers, mainly
commercial and industrial users, receive a reduced rate in exchange for a
commitment to come off
line when asked to do so for reliability purposes.
A Stage Two Emergency is declared when operating reserves dip below five
percent or are
expected to within the next two hours. If an operating reserve shortfall of
less than one-and-a-half
percent is unavoidable,Stage Three will be initiated. Involuntary
curtailments of service to customers,
including "rotating blackouts," are possible during this emergency
declaration. The California ISO's
Electrical Emergency Plan (EEP) is part of the state's enhanced reliability
standards created by
landmark legislation Assembly Bill 1890, which restructured California's
electricity industry. A Stage
One Emergency, urging Californians to conserve as much energy as possible,
was called at 4 p.m.,
and is effective through 9 p.m. this evening.
California ISO is chartered by the state to manage the flow of electricity
along the long-distance,
high-voltage power lines that make up the bulk of California's transmission
system. The
not-for-profit public-benefit corporation assumed the responsibility in
March, 1998, when California
opened its energy markets to competition and the state's investor-owned
utilities turned their private
transmission power lines over to the California ISO to manage. The mission
of the California ISO is
to safeguard the reliable delivery of electricity, facilitate markets and
ensure equal access to a 12,500
circuit mile "electron highway."
Information about the California ISO control area's electricity supply and
the current demand is
available on the web at www.caiso.com
Other helpful contacts:
Pacific Gas and Electric 415/973-5930
Southern California Edison 626/302-2255
San Diego Gas and Electric 877/866-2066
=> Jasper Fire Rehab Proposed
NOVEMBER 15 -- CUSTER, SD: The Black Hills National Forest is preparing an
environmental
impact statement (EIS) on a proposal to recover value from fire-killed
timber within the perimeter of
the Jasper Fire, which burned more than 83,000 acres in August and
September. Fire-killed
ponderosa pine in the Black Hills is highly susceptible to damage from
insects and fungus, and it's
expected that wood quality within the fire area will decline at a moderate
rate until next summer. The
Black Hills National Forest intends to remove hazard trees, maintain soil
productivity, and minimize
soil erosion with this project, while managing fuel loading and capturing
economic values associated
with the restoration. The EIS will be designed to satisfy the requirements
of the National
Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and the National Forest Management Act
(NFMA). Comments
concerning the scope of the analysis should be submitted before December 9
to Mike Lloyd, District
Ranger, Hell Canyon Ranger District, Black Hills National Forest, 330 Mt.
Rushmore Road, Custer,
SD 57730.
For more information, contact Kelly Honors, EIS team leader, at
(605)673-4853. The
announcement of the proposed project is online from the Federal Register
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=2000_register&doci
d=00-28766-filed
, and the Black Hills National Forest is also online.
=> Volunteers Thin Forest to Reduce Fire Danger
NOVEMBER 14 -- MORIARTY, NM: Despite rainy weather on Saturday, volunteers
helped out
with a forest thinning project to reduce fire danger along Highway 337 in
New Mexico, according to
a story by the Mountain View Journal. The thinning project, a multi-agency
effort to clear private and
public lands of excess fuels, was based at the Carolino Canyon picnic ground
south of old Route
66.
"It was a real cooperative effort between the different agencies and the
citizens," said East Mountains
resident and environmental biologist April Fletcher, who helped organize the
event. Crews of prison
inmates cut down trees in late October, and on Saturday about 25 citizen
volunteers joined state and
federal employees and county and city workers to haul limbs and branches out
of the area.
New Mexico Sen. Sue Wilson, who is leading the effort to reduce fire danger
and improve forest
health, also helped. "We had a great day," said Wilson. "Had the weather
been better, we would
have been able to attract a lot more people." She said the volunteers who
showed up accomplished
a lot, trudging through mud to haul branches.
Bernalillo County workers filled a 30-cubic-yard bin with wood chips from
the area, and residents
were able to take home free wood chips and firewood. Wilson said she is
looking for a coordinator
from the East Mountains area for future projects. "I'm looking for a local
resident manager, and I'm
trying to find (grant) money to pay that person," she said. Anyone
interested should email
sue.wilson{at}state.nm.us <sue.wilson{at}state.nm.us> or call Wilson at
(505)268-1905. The Mountain
View Journal story is online, and Sen. Wilson has a website available.
http://legis.state.nm.us/scripts/senate_directory_list.asp?chamber=S&sponsor
_abbrev=SWILS&district=0&ZipCode=0&submit=Look+up
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