The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For November 1, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or Significant
Icing Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column- Changing importance of weather during the 20th century
=> Sponsored by the SandbaggerTM
**** ARTICLES ****
=> Article More Than $8 Million Approved in Cerro Grande Fire Assistance
Program
=> Article NTSB Sends Investigators To Taiwan To Assist In Airline Crash
Investigation
=> Article USGS Director Applauds FY 2001 Appropriations
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For November 1, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Tue...89 At Alice TX
Low Wed...13 At Eureka NV
=> Special Notes
The Disaster Center is pleased to now provide:
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=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook For The North Atlantic Caribbean Sea
And
The Gulf Of Mexico
Tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday.
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Wed Nov 1 12:06:09 2000
Flash Flood
Puerto Rico
...EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN HA EMITIDO UNA
ADVERTENCIA DE INUNDACIONES URBANA Y PEQUENOS RIACHUELOS EN
EFECTO HASTA LAS 230 PM AST PARA LOS SIGUIENTES MUNICIPIIOS...
SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...CAROLINA...CANOVANAS...LOIZA...
AGUAS BUENAS...Y CAGUAS
Texas
FLASH
FLOOD WATCH EFFECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PEOPLE
IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
COMAL...GONZALES...WILSON...BASTROP...TRAVIS...BEXAR...HAYS...
LAVACA...DEWITT...WILLIAMSON...ATASCOSA...LEE...GUADALUPE...
CALDWELL...FAYETTE AND KARNES
Special Marine
Puerto Rico
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
NEARSHORE WATERS OFF NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM THE COAST
OF
QUEBRADILLAS EASTWARD TO FAJARDO
* UNTIL 300 PM AST.
Non Precipitation
Montana
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE TODAY...
Nebraska
...WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TODAY FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
South Dakota
..A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING VERY STRONG
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
Wyoming
...WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TODAY FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
Severe Thunderstorm
Oklahoma
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
* UNTIL 1130 AM CST
Winter Storm
Colorado
...WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO...
.SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
TODAY
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS.
Montana
Eastern Montata...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA WILL CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS...WILL
RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.
North Dakota
...A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR WEST NORTH
DAKOTA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...AN.D FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
South Dakota
.A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH LIKELY
Wyoming
...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR NIOBRARA COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN SIOUX
COUNTY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
...OTHER WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED...
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight
There is a 2% probability of a tornado from central south Texas to north
northeast Texas, central
south southeast Oklahoma, the southeast 1/3 of North Dakota, north northeast
South Dakota and
central west Minnesota.
The 5% probability area covers southeast North Dakota, and far central north
northeast South
Dakota.
Hail Risk - Slight
There is a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger from central south
Texas to north northeast
Texas, the southeast 1/3 of Oklahoma, the southeast 1/2 of North Dakota, the
north northeast 1/3 of
South Dakota and west southwest Minnesota and northeast Iowa.
The 15% probability area covers southeast North Dakota, north northeast
South Dakota and central
west Minnesota.
Wind Risk - Slight
There is a 5% probability of winds in excess of 50 knots from central south
Texas to north northeast
Texas, southeast Oklahoma, west southwest Arkansas, the southeast 1/2 of
North Dakota, the north
northeast 1/3 of South Dakota and west southwest Minnesota and northeast
Iowa.
Tomorrow's Risk -
There is less than a 5% probability of any severe weather tomorrow.
=> Precipitation Forecast, Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow And/Or
Significant
Icing Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hour precipitation forecast is calling for over 2 inches of rainfall
over a portion of southeast
Texas.
Over an inch of precipitation is forecast over far northeast Wyoming, far
east southeast Montana, the
west northwest 1/4 of North Dakota, northeast Minnesota, and northwest
Wisconsin, and from
south to northeast Texas.
The 24 - 48 hour precipitation forecast is calling for over 2 inches of
precipitation over a portion of
central south Texas.
Over an inch of precipitation is forecast from central south to central
east Texas.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall may exceed flash flood values from central south to north northeast
Texas.
USA heavy snow and/or significant icing
There is a low probability of heavy snow over eastern Montana northeast
Wyoming, west northwest
South Dakota and western North Dakota.
There is a moderate risk of heavy snowfall over northeast Wyoming
The probability of significant icing is less than 20 percent.
Tomorrow there is a low probabiltiy of heavy snowfall over northeast Montana
and northwest South
Dakota.
The probability of significant icing is less than 20 percent.
=> USA Flood Report
NATIONAL HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
08:00 AM EST WED NOV 1 2000
FLOOD SUMMARY
MINOR FLASH FLOODING IN TEXAS
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS CAUSED SOME FLASH
FLOODING FORM UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN.
FLASH FLOODING:
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD AND/OR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE LAST DAY FOR LOCATIONS INCLUDING (IN
ALPHABETICAL ORDER BY STATE):
TEXAS: ANDREWS, CARSON, GAINES, HUTCHINSON, POTTER AND
RANDALL COUNTIES
RIVER FLOODING:
RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH LOCATIONS EITHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR LOCATIONS INCLUDING (IN
ALPHABETICAL ORDER BY STATE):
OKLAHOMA: THE DEEP FORK RIVER
TEXAS: THE NUECES RIVER
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SITUATION REPORT
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2000 - 0730 MST
NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS LEVEL I
CURRENT SITUATION:
The Southern Area reported three new large fires in Georgia, Virginia and
Kentucky. Most of the Southern Area experienced moderate to heavy initial
attack activity. A high pressure system will remain in place over most of
the Southern Area today, causing continued warm temperatures and low
relative humidity. Large fire activity is expected to continue.
Containment was reached on four large fires, two in the Eastern Area and
two in Kentucky. The National Interagency Coordination Center mobilized
helicopters, air attack aircraft, radio equipment, meteorological
equipment, crews and overhead resources to the Southern Area. Very high to
extreme fire indices were reported in Georgia, Kentucky and North
Carolina.
SOUTHERN AREA LARGE FIRES:
BRUSHY RIDGE, National Forests in North Carolina. A Type I Incident
Management Team (Melton) is assigned. This fire is burning in the Linville
Gorge Wilderness in steep terrain 20 miles north of Marion, NC. The fire
continues to exhibit active behavior. Crews are working to contain a
slopover on the southern edge of the fire. Low relative humidity is
challenging containment efforts.
SANDERS, Daniel Boone National Forest. This fire is burning in hardwoods
and leaf litter six miles west of Williamsburg, KY. Short range spotting
was reported and heavy smoke is contributing to poor visibility in the
area. Ten residences in the area are threatened.
PINNACLES, Shenandoah National Park. A Type I Incident Management Team
(Stutler) is assigned. The fire is burning in rough terrain five miles
southeast of Luray, VA. The fire has jumped Skyline Drive and is moving
east and north toward the park boundary and private residences. Pinnacles
Research Station and other historic structures within the park are
threatened. Gusty winds are causing difficulties towards containment.
OLD RAG, Shenandoah National Park. This fire is ten miles southeast of
Luray, VA. Winds are driving the fire east and south in rough terrain.
Current threats are to private residences east of the park boundary.
PANTHER CREEK, Chattahoochee-Oconee National Forest. This fire was ignited
by lightning on 10/26 in the Cohutta Wilderness near Chatsworth, GA.
Inaccessibility and steep terrain are hampering containment efforts.
HONEY BEE, Daniel Boone National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Kearney) is assigned. This fire is at the north end of Cumberland
State Park. No other information was reported.
OUTLOOK:
*** A RED FLAG WARNING IS POSTED IN EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR LOW
AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ***
*** A RED FLAG WARNING IS POSTED IN THE MOUNTAINS, FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT
AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ***
*** A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ***
High pressure will slowly move along the eastern seaboard by late this
afternoon. This will continue to bring warm and dry conditions to the
majority of the east coast.
The Carolinas will have mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the
mid 60's to upper 70's. Minimum afternoon humidity will range from 15 to
30 percent. Winds will be north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.
Partly cloudy skies are expected in Kentucky with afternoon temperatures
in the 70's and 80's. Relative humidity will be between 20 and 30 percent
in the eastern part of the state and from 35 to 55 percent in the west.
Winds will be out of the south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 NOV 01 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
(29.0 TO 35.8 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 OCT 30 23:37:20.00 35.0 N 120.7 W 29 km 3.3
15 miles W of Santa Maria, California
EARTHQUAKES IN STATE OF ALASKA
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 OCT 31 10:19:57.24 51.1 N 176.1 W 33 km 4.0
60 miles SSE of Adak, Alaska
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
Time F-Scale Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2116 UNK 5 E MINGO THOMAS KS 3928 10085 REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY NWS
EMPLOYEE. (GLD)
2151 UNK 12 E BURLINGTON KIT CARSON CO 3929 10200 REPORTED BY
OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE. (GLD)
2152 UNK 15 SSW OBERLIN DECATUR KS 3958 10063 REPORTED BY STORM
SPOTTER. (GLD)
2154 UNK 8 S RULETON SHERMAN KS 3919 10188 REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (GLD)
2201 UNK 3 N CARUSO SHERMAN KS 3938 10178 REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. STORM CHASER ALSO CONFIRMED TORNADO. (GLD)
2315 UNK 2 E BARTLEY RED WILLOW NE 4024 10025 REPORTED BY SPOTTER.
(GLD)
2340 UNK 6 SSW EUSTIS FRONTIER NE 4057 10008 DAMAGE TO FARM (LBF)
2340 UNK 6 ENE OBERLIN DECATUR KS 3985 10039 REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY
NWS EMPLOYEE. (GLD)
2345 UNK 1 S EUSTIS FRONTIER NE 4064 10003 POWER LINES AND STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE (LBF)
2350 UNK 13 NE OBERLIN DECATUR KS 3996 10031 REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY
NWS EMPLOYEE. (GLD)
0050 UNK OCONTO CUSTER NE 4115 9978 EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IN OCONTO
(LBF)
0100 UNK 2 WSW BROCK NEMAHA NE 4047 9599 3 OUTBUILDINGS DESTRO\YED.
REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (OMA)
0111 UNK 5 ESE BROKEN BOW CUSTER NE 4136 9954 TORNADO DAMAGED
FARMSTEAD (LBF)
0145 UNK 3 N SARGENT CUSTER NE 4168 9936 POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGED
SEVERAL REA POLES NORTH OF SARGENT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (LBF)
0152 UNK 3 NE TAYLOR LOUP NE 4180 9933 POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGED
OUTBUILDINGS NORTHEAST OF TAYLOR. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (LBF)
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1925 100 10 N LIMON LINCOLN CO 3943 10369 (DEN)
1947 88 1 E BLUE RAPIDS MARSHALL KS 3968 9664 (TOP)
1958 75 4 N OLSBURG POTTAWATOMIE KS 3949 9661 PUBLIC REPORTED DIME
SIZE HAIL (TOP)
2035 150 1 N OKETO MARSHALL KS 3998 9659 PUBLIC REPORTED WALNUT SIZE
HAIL. (TOP)
2045 88 1 W NORWAY REPUBLIC KS 3969 9780 (TOP)
2047 88 1 E BLUE RAPIDS MARSHALL KS 3968 9664 (TOP)
2048 75 4 W OAKLEY LOGAN KS 3913 10093 REPORTED BY COOPERATIVE
OBSERVER. (GLD)
2055 88 ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE CO 3884 10216 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (GLD)
2058 75 4 N OLSBURG POTTAWATOMIE KS 3949 9661 PUBLIC REPORTED DIME
SIZE HAIL (TOP)
2110 175 2 E MINGO THOMAS KS 3928 10092 REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
OPERATOR. (GLD)
2115 100 5 N STRATTON KIT CARSON CO 3938 10259 REPORTED BY STORM
SPOTTER. (GLD)
2130 175 8 NE STRATTON KIT CARSON CO 3939 10247 REPORTED BY STORM
SPOTTER. (GLD)
2130 75 FRANKFORT MARSHALL KS 3969 9641 SPOTTER REPORTED DIME SIZE
HAIL. (TOP)
2135 150 1 N OKETO MARSHALL KS 3998 9659 PUBLIC REPORTED WALNUT SIZE
HAIL. (TOP)
2137 175 14 S KANORADO SHERMAN KS 3909 10203 REPORTED BY STORM
SPOTTER. (GLD)
2155 100 FRANKFORT MARSHALL KS 3969 9641 NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL
(TOP)
2200 175 1 W RULETON SHERMAN KS 3933 10190 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER.
(GLD)
2203 88 15 E DUMAS MOORE TX 3584 10165 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT. (AMA)
2210 100 7 WSW GRUVER HANSFORD TX 3622 10153 REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (AMA)
2220 75 9 NW SENECA NEMAHA KS 3993 9620 PUBLIC REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL.
(TOP)
2220 75 10 SSE YUMA YUMA CO 3996 10263 REPORTED BY SPOTTER. (GLD)
2227 100 15 N STINNETT HUTCHINSON TX 3606 10144 REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (AMA)
2230 75 BUSHLAND POTTER TX 3518 10206 REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
OPERATOR. (AMA)
2245 88 3 W PRINGLE HUTCHINSON TX 3594 10151 REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
OPERATOR. (AMA)
2245 75 20 N AMARILLO POTTER TX 3540 10191 REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
OPERATOR. (AMA)
2300 125 11 SW HAYES CENTER HAYES NE 4038 10118 (LBF)
2300 100 5 N WHEELER CHEYENNE KS 3984 10171 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (GLD)
2300 100 BARTLEY RED WILLOW NE 4025 10030 REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT. (GLD)
2309 100 1 S BENKELMAN DUNDY NE 4003 10153 REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT. (GLD)
2312 175 11 SE STOCKVILLE FRONTIER NE 4040 10021 (LBF)
2315 100 9 E TRIBUNE GREELEY KS 3846 10155 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (GLD)
2315 88 STINNETT HUTCHINSON TX 3581 10144 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT. (AMA)
2320 75 2 NW WALLACE WALLACE KS 3894 10161 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (GLD)
2325 100 LOGAN COUNTY LOGAN KS 3890 10114 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (GLD)
2325 100 12 N BIRD CITY CHEYENNE KS 3995 10153 REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY
NWS EMPLOYEE. (GLD)
2330 75 12 SSE EDSON SHERMAN KS 3914 10144 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (GLD)
2340 75 13 N BENKELMAN DUNDY NE 4026 10153 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (GLD)
2345 75 12 NNW STRATTON HITCHCOCK NE 4033 10133 REPORTED BY PUBLIC.
(GLD)
2350 88 15 SW HAYES CENTER HAYES NE 4033 10124 (LBF)
2351 100 LEVANT THOMAS KS 3938 10119 REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR.
(GLD)
0000 100 1 E COZAD DAWSON NE 4086 9994 (GRI)
0010 125 5 WSW EMERSON THURSTON NE 4213 9653 REPORTED BY PUBLIC.
(OMA)
0040 75 BURWELL GARFIELD NE 4178 9913 (LBF)
0105 75 WHITE DEER CARSON TX 3543 10118 REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
OPERATOR. (AMA)
0110 88 20 NE BURWELL GARFIELD NE 4201 9881 (LBF)
0128 75 WHITE DEER CARSON TX 3543 10118 REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY NWS
EMPLOYEE. (AMA)
0130 75 12 SW COOK RED WILLOW NE 4037 9635 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (GLD)
0230 100 7 SW AMELIA HOLT NE 4215 9901 (LBF)
0655 75 ELLSWORTH PIERCE WI 4473 9246 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (MSP)
0755 75 ELLSWORTH PIERCE WI 4473 9246 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (MSP)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1947 60 1 E BLUE RAPIDS MARSHALL KS 3968 9664 (TOP)
2047 60 1 E BLUE RAPIDS MARSHALL KS 3968 9664 (TOP)
2320 60 5 N STANTON STANTON NE 4203 9723 THUNDERSTORM MICROBURST
BLEW OUT A WINDOW AND SCREEN ON A HOUSE. (OMA)
2340 70 7 S AUBURN NEMAHA NE 4028 9583 THUNDERSTORM MICROBURST
BLEW A CAR OF THE ROAD. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS WERE
ALS0 RECEIVED IN THIS LOCATION. (OMA)
0210 UNK 1 E GLENWOOD MILLS IA 4104 9574 TRAILER HOME DESTROYED.
POWER POLES DOWN THEN TRAIN RAN OVER THEM. . REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (OMA)
0210 60 2 E GLENWOOD MILLS IA 4104 9572 THUNDERSTORM MICROBURST
DAMAGED A HOUSE AND RIPPED OUT A FENCE. ALSO POWER POLES WERE
DOWNED JUST NORTHEAST OF GLENWOOD. (OMA)
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Changing importance of weather during the 20th century
Stan Changnon
Illinois State Water Survey
The 20th century saw major changes in how the nation views the importance
of weather and the value of weather-related information. While society
once had an implicit belief in the importance of weather, it now has an
explicit need to define that value in economic, societal, and
environmental terms. This major shift affects how atmospheric sciences
will be conducted, how much financial support for research and operations
will be provided, and how much public and policy acceptance and use of
meteorological information there will be.
When the 20th century dawned, society had very little practical weather
information. Weather could be very deadly, and forecasts were at best an
art, not a science. Consequently, weather-related death tolls were
enormous: 6,000 (1901 hurricane at Galveston, Texas), 685 (1925 tornado in
Illinois), and 1,100 (1927 floods along the lower Mississippi River).
The fledgling science of meteorology evolved slowly during the early
decades of the 20th century. Weather information's shift from an
agricultural orientation to an aviation and business focus occurred during
the 1930s, as reflected by the transfer of the U.S. Weather Bureau from
the Department of Agriculture to the Department of Commerce. The emergence
of commercial aviation and its need to know existing and future weather
conditions fueled the demand for weather forecasting and forecasters.
Science and the necessary forecasting tools were also developing rapidly.
World War II had a profound influence on meteorology. Suddenly there was
an enormous need to know the state of the weather in many parts of the
world, including climatic conditions where troops were headed in Africa,
Asia, and Europe. Military operations required information about the
state of the weather at the front, and desperately sought weather
predictions. This huge demand for weather expertise also created a need
for meteorologists, principally forecasters. Hundreds of persons trained
in other disciplines had to take weather training. The number of
meteorologists jumped from a few hundred in 1940 to thousands by 1946.
Of course, the value of weather information was obvious and did not
require measurement.
Major droughts during the 1950s led to attempts to make rain through cloud
seeding. Successful fog suppression efforts during WWII were sufficient to
lead to a growing belief that humans could somehow control the weather.
The potential for modifying weather became a new focus of government
weather research, along with forecasting, in the late 1950s and 1960s.
Profound, fundamental societal changes in the 1960s led to major revisions
in public views about the value and importance of weather. The emerging
environmental movement expressed great concern about human impacts on the
environment, including air pollution and cloud seeding. Although
meteorologists had previously assumed that "If we could change the
weather, it would benefit everyone," studies of economic effects showed
this assumption to be fallacious. Another fundamental change during the
1960s was the end of essentially unlimited government funding for weather
research. A tightened federal pocketbook meant that scientists now had to
compete for funds against hundreds of other major demands on government
resources, including those of other sciences. This led to the realization
that scientists needed to define the value of weather and how weather
science could benefit society and the environment.
In essence, the events of the 1960s and 1970s ended the era of implicit
belief in the value of weather. Unfortunately, most meteorologists
believed that weather was an all-important societal issue and were not
prepared to define its value and defend what they were doing by working
with economists and scientists of other disciplines. Additionally,
technological advances in weather-sensitive industries such as
agriculture, transportation, and heating and air conditioning made society
less vulnerable to many vagaries of everyday weather conditions. Citizens
became less concerned about weather than they had been in 1900 or 1930.
Vast improvements in storm forecasting allowed society to make informed
decisions, reducing deaths due to weather events. Many of the every day
problems due to weather had disappeared.
Since the 1970s, a few interdisciplinary groups have tackled the issue of
defining weather impacts, but the human and financial commitment has been
meager. What is clear as the 20th century ends is that atmospheric
scientists must define the value of weather, including weather data and
information. For example, responsible action in response to global climate
change rests heavily on correctly ascertaining the impacts of future
climates. Highly accurate long-term forecasts generated during the
1997-1998 El Nino provided new insights about the vast value of long-range
predictions and the widely different economic impacts of anomalous weather
conditions.
During the 20th century, meteorology has been very successful in reducing
weather-related deaths, as well as minimizing many detrimental effects of
day-to-day weather conditions. As we enter the 21st century, atmospheric
sciences are competing with many other societal issues for visibility and
support. The field of meteorology cannot go forward sensibly into the 21st
century without credible information on weather's economic, societal, and
environmental impacts. Policymakers at all levels now insist on such
information; environmentalists seek definitive information on how weather
and climate affect ecosystems; and members of society want meaningful
information about how weather affects their lives and the global economy.
-- Stan Changnon
Illinois State Water Survey
schangno{at}uiuc.edu
Comments? thunder{at}ucar.edu
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**** ARTICLES ****
--------------------------------------------------------------
=> More Than $8 Million Approved in Cerro Grande Fire Assistance Program
Santa Fe, NM, October 31, 2000 -- The following is a summary of ongoing
efforts of the Cerro
Grande Fire Assistance Program administered by the Federal Emergency
Management Agency
(FEMA).
* To date, more than $8.1 million in Cerro Grande Fire Claims funds have
been approved for
individuals and businesses in Los Alamos and the surrounding area including
Espaņola, Santa Clara
Pueblo and San Ildefonso Pueblo.
* Six FEMA Customer Service Centers have assisted 4,217 visitors since the
fire assistance
operation began on August 28, 2000. An average of 71 people visit the
centers on a daily basis.
* More than 2,421 Notices of Loss forms have been filed. Of them, private
citizens have filed 1,880
claims; businesses have filed 467 claims; state and county governments have
filed 11 claims; tribal
governments have filed one claim; not-for-profit groups have filed 17
claims; and 45 claims are in the
process of being classified.
* More than $424,938 in temporary housing funds have been distributed to 376
individuals and
families.
* Individuals who need assistance as result of the fires should visit one of
the Cerro Grande Fire
Assistance Customer Service Centers listed below. The toll-free Cerro Grande
Fire Assistance Line
is 1-888-748-1853. The address is: FEMA Office of Cerro Grande Fire Claims,
PO Box 1480,
Los Alamos, NM 87544-1480.
* Cerro Grande Fire Assistance Customer Service Centers are at the following
locations:
Los Alamos Los Alamos
IT Building Canyon School
235 Central Park Square 1200 4th Street
Espanola White Rock
Johnson Controls LANL Bldg. 00-1313
1027 North Railroad Avenue 134 State Road
(between Texaco
and Metzger Hardware)
Santa Clara Pueblo San Ildefonso Pueblo
Tan building at Health Clinic Tewa Center
* FEMA Customer Service Center hours are in operation from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Monday through
Saturday. The centers are closed on Sundays.
=> NTSB Sends Investigators To Taiwan To Assist In Airline Crash
Investigation
October 31, 2000
The National Transportation Safety Board is sending a team of
investigators to provide assistance to the Taiwan authorities' investigation
of a plane crash in Taipei, Taiwan.
On October 31, at approximately 11:18 p.m. local time, a Singapore
Airlines 747, flight 006 bound for Los Angeles, crashed on take-off on the
runway at Chiang Kai-Shek International Airport. There were a reported 179
passengers and crew on board.
The eight member NTSB team, led by senior investigator Al Dickinson,
who has been designated the U.S. Accredited Representative, is expected to
arrive in Taiwan on Thursday evening, local time. Representatives of the
Federal Aviation Administration will accompany the NTSB investigators.
All information on the progress of the investigation will be
released by the Taiwan authorities.
=> USGS Director Applauds FY 2001 Appropriations
The following is a statement by USGS Director Charles Groat concerning the
FY 2001 Interior Appropriations Bill.
"I am pleased to announce that the FY 2001 appropriation provides a
significant increase for the USGS. This increase comes as result of hard
work by the Administration, Congress and our key constituents. It means
that we will be able to expand and modernize our earthquake monitoring
network in urban areas across the country; enhance our capability to
monitor the quality of ground-water systems; expand our network of
real-time stream gages; and add an additional high-risk Alaskan volcano to
our hazards monitoring network.
"The Interior bill appropriates $885 million for USGS in FY 2001. This is
a $72 million net increase over the FY 2000 enacted funding. The bill will
fund and expand core programs of USGS, including increases for geologic
mapping, coastal and marine geology studies, the National Atlas, amphibian
research and monitoring, biological information systems, the mission
operations of Landsat 7, and funding for high priority research in support
of DOI land conservation and preservation.
"The FY 2001 Interior Appropriations bill also provides the USGS with
emergency supplemental funding associated with damages incurred by
hydrologic monitoring networks as a result of Hurricane Floyd last summer.
"This investment reflects an appreciation of the important scientific
contribution that the USGS can make in addressing a broad range of problems
and issues facing the nation. Understanding the delicate balance between
the Earth's natural resources and America's need for continued growth will
enable us to make better decisions so future generations may continue to
enjoy this precious land.
"There is no doubt that we face many challenges in addressing the future
science needs of the nation. This appropriation provides us the
opportunity to continue our long tradition of scientific excellence while
taking bold new steps to enhance the understanding of earth and life
systems."
As the nation's largest water, earth and biological science and civilian
mapping agency, the USGS works in cooperation with more than 2,000
organizations across the country to provide reliable, impartial, scientific
information to resource managers, planners, and other customers. This
information is gathered in every state by USGS scientists to minimize the
loss of life and property from natural disasters, contribute to the sound
conservation, economic and physical development of the nation's natural
resources, and enhance the quality of life by monitoring water, biological,
energy and mineral resources.
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=> Links Area
More from the Courier Journal on the Kentucky Slurry Spill
http://www.courier-journal.com/localnews/2000/0010/31/001031vir.html
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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