The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For September 29, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast and Excessive Rainfall Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column
=> Five U.S. Universities Selected to Participate in Pilot Phase of FEMA
Initiative to Help Universities Avoid Damage from Natural Disasters
=> The U.S. Fire Administration has received notice of the following
firefighter fatality:
=> The NTSB makes the following safety recommendations to the city of St.
Louis:
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For September 29, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Thu...107 At Coolidge AZ
Low Fri...19 At Whitefield NH
=> Special Notes
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook For The North Atlantic Caribbean Sea And
The Gulf Of Mexico
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaac
located about 500 miles east of Bermuda...on recently downgraded Tropical
Storm Joyce...located about 725 miles east southeast of Barbados in the
Windward Islands...and on Tropical Depression Fifteen located about 325
miles south of the western tip of Cuba.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday.
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Fri Sep 29 11:18:59 2000
Hurricane/Tropical Storm
United States
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST MON OCT 2 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
37.0N 53.0W 22 5 X X 27 ILE ST PIERRE X X 1 1 2
40.0N 49.0W X 15 3 1 19 CAPE RACE NFLD X 1 2 2 5
42.5N 44.0W X 1 10 3 14 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 6 3 9
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT
C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST MON OCT 2 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
11.0N 53.0W 53 X X X 53 TFFR 163N 615W X X X 15 15
11.5N 55.0W 6 25 X X 31 TAPA 171N 618W X X X 13 13
12.5N 57.0W X 13 10 1 24 TKPK 173N 627W X X X 11 11
SVMG 110N 640W X X X 6 6 TNCM 181N 631W X X X 8 8
TTPP 106N 614W X X 2 9 11 TISX 177N 648W X X X 6 6
TTPT 112N 608W X X 5 9 14 TIST 183N 650W X X X 4 4
TGPY 120N 618W X X 2 11 13 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 2 2
TBPB 131N 595W X X 12 7 19 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 2 2
TVSV 131N 612W X X 3 13 16 ST CROIX VI X X X 6 6
TLPL 138N 610W X X 3 14 17 ST THOMAS VI X X X 4 4
TFFF 146N 610W X X 2 15 17 SAN JUAN PR X X X 2 2
TDPR 153N 614W X X 1 15 16 PONCE PR X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT
C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
Non Precipitation
Connecticut
Massachusetts
New York
Vermont
...FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT...
Maine
...FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT...
Montana
...HIGH WIND WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A PORTION OF NORTHWEST
MONTANA EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight
There is less than a 2% probability of a tornado.
Hail Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger.
Wind Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of winds in excess of 50 knots.
Tomorrow's Risk - Slight
There is less than a 5% probability of any severe weather tomorrow
=> Precipitation Forecast and Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hr precipitation forecast is calling for over an inch of rainfall
over northwest Washington and southern Florida
The 24 - 48 hr precipitation forecast is calling for over 2 inches of
rainfall over west central Washington and over and inch of rainfall over
northwest Oregon, west central Washington, northern Idaho, northwestern
Montana, northeast and a section of southeast Florida.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall is not expected to exceed flash flood guidance values this period.
=> USA Flood Report
NATIONAL HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
0900 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000
FLOOD SUMMARY
SCATTERED SHOWERS
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRED OVER FLORIDA AND ARIZONA. SOME RIVERS REMAIN
AT OR NEAR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN THE CAROLINAS AND FLORIDA.
OUTLOOK
MOST OF THE NATION WILL HAVE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
FLASH FLOODING:
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND/OR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED OVER THE LAST DAY FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
(IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER, BY STATE):
ARIZONA: THE TUCSON METROPOLITAN AREA
FLORIDA: BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES
PUERTO RICO: THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS; THE
NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS; SAN JUAN AND VICINITY
RIVER FLOODING:
RIVERS AND STREAMS EITHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE (IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER, BY STATE)
FLORIDA: THE MYAKKA RIVER
NORTH CAROLINA: THE LUMBER AND NEUSE RIVERS
SOUTH CAROLINA: THE LITTLE PEE DEE RIVER
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SITUATION REPORT
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2000 - 0530 MDT
NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS LEVEL II
CURRENT SITUATION:
Initial attack activity was low nationwide with no new large fires
reported. One large fire in Texas was contained. Hot, dry weather will
keep fire danger high in Texas and Oklahoma. Elsewhere, high cloudiness
and cooler temperatures should lessen fire activity. Mobilization of
resources through the National Interagency Coordination Center was
minimal. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Oregon,
California, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Arizona, Nevada,
New Mexico, Texas, Nebraska, Arkansas and Oklahoma.
SOUTHERN AREA LARGE FIRES:
GULLY SLOUGH, McFaddin National Wildlife Refuge. This fire is burning on
private and federal land 45 miles east of Houston, TX. Extremely low
relative humidity is causing active fire behavior. Aerial ignition
operations are being conducted to reduce unburned fuels near the fire
perimeter.
NORTHERN ROCKIES AREA LARGE FIRES:
VALLEY COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Furlong) is assigned. These fires are seven miles south of Darby,
MT. The complex consists of the Blodgett, Skalkaho, Bear, Taylor, Taylor
Spot, Hilltop, Razor, Fat, and Mink fires. Warm, dry conditions are
causing fire activity to increase. Helicopter bucket work is occurring on
the Fat and Taylor fires. Monitoring of the uncontained portions of the
complex continues.
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AREA LARGE FIRES:
CLEAR CREEK COMPLEX, Salmon-Challis National Forest. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Carr) is assigned. This complex consists of the Clear
Creek and Marlin Springs fires. These fires are ten miles west of Salmon,
ID. Creeping and smoldering fire behavior with isolated torching has been
observed in the heavy fuels. Suppression actions are ongoing in some
divisions. Steep terrain is creating difficult working conditions.
Burned Area Emergency Rehabilitation projects continue.
OUTLOOK:
*** A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ***
High pressure will remain over Texas and Oklahoma, bringing sunny and dry
conditions. High temperatures will be in the mid 80's. Minimum relative
humidity is forecast to be 20 to 35 percent. Winds will be northeast to
southeast at 5 to 15 mph, except for stronger south winds at 10 to 20 mph
in the Texas panhandle.
A weak trough will again bring morning drizzle near the coast of
California, followed by sunny skies and lower humidity by afternoon. High
temperatures will be in the 70's and 80's in the mountains and along the
coast, and in the 90's to lower 100's in desert areas. Minimum relative
humidity will be 8 to 15 percent in the driest areas and from 20 to 35
percent elsewhere. Winds will be southeast to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 SEP 29 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
(29.0 TO 35.8 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 SEP 28 04:29:49.37 31.8 N 116.0 W 10 km 3.7
40 miles E of Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico
EARTHQUAKES IN WEST CENTRAL UNITED STATES
(35.8 TO 40.3 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 SEP 28 19:40:18.00 36.6 N 121.1 W 7 km 3.1
25 miles SE of Hollister, California
2000 SEP 27 18:51:31.00 38.8 N 122.8 W 5 km 3.2
15 miles SW of Clearlake, California
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
No reports received
Wind Reports
No reports received
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column
No Column Today
=> Five U.S. Universities Selected to Participate in Pilot Phase of FEMA
Initiative to Help Universities Avoid Damage from Natural Disasters
Tulane University, University of Alaska/Fairbanks, University of Miami,
University of North Carolina/Wilmington and the University of
Washington/Seattle chosen by FEMA as pilot "Disaster Resistant
Universities."
Washington, September 28, 2000 -- Five U.S. universities have been chosen to
participate in the pilot phase of a unique undertaking by the Federal
Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to help the nation's colleges and
universities limit future property and economic damage from natural
disasters. The five universities will each receive about $100,000 from FEMA
for the project and each university will match equally the resources
provided by FEMA. The five pilot Disaster Resistant Universities are Tulane
University, University of Alaska/ Fairbanks, University of Miami, University
of North Carolina/Wilmington and the University of Washington at Seattle.
"These five universities have already shown their commitment to making their
campuses more disaster resistant," said FEMA Director James Lee Witt. "When
an institution takes action like these universities are doing, their
activities will improve the ability of their surrounding community and
regions to recover from a major disaster."
FEMA's Disaster Resistant Universities initiative uses the same strategic
approach as FEMA's Project Impact: Building Disaster Resistant Communities.
Through Project Impact communities are encouraged to come together to assess
their vulnerabilities to natural hazards and implement strategies to limit
damage before disasters occur. Project Impact bases its work and planning on
three simple principles: Risks must be identified and preventive actions
decided at the local level; private-public partnerships are essential; and
long-term efforts and investments in prevention measures are necessary.
The first part of the project consisted of a University of California at
Berkeley study of the economic consequences of a disaster on a university
and its surrounding community and state. The study substantiated the premise
that a disaster in a community's predominant business - the university -
will have severe economic consequences locally and even statewide. As part
of the study, UC Berkeley also developed a plan to limit future disaster
losses and guidelines for other universities to use in the pilot phase of
the initiative.
"It is clear that disasters do much more than destroy buildings," FEMA
Director James Lee Witt said. "They impact a locality in many different ways
for a long time." The federal government alone invests nearly $15 billion
per year in university-based research, he added.
Witt said that he expects the Disaster Resistant University initiative will
be an important component of FEMA's efforts to change the way America deals
with disasters.
=> The U.S. Fire Administration has received notice of the following
firefighter fatality:
Name: Paul Husband
Rank: Firefighter
Status: Career
Age: 33
Date of Incident: September 27, 2000
Date of Death: September 27, 2000
Fire Dept.: Chief Stephen Dean, City of Mobile Fire-Rescue Department, 701
St. Francis Street, Mobile, Alabama 36602
Cause of Death: Died from injuries sustained when he was struck by a moving
ladder truck he was attempting to board.
=> The NTSB makes the following safety recommendations to the city of St.
Louis:
Establish and implement oversight procedures to ensure that owners of
operational permanently moored vessels that are accessible to the public in
St. Louis Harbor conduct and document fire drills. (M-00-20)
Take the following three actions: a) require that the owners of all
operating permanently moored vessels that are accessible to the public in
St. Louis Harbor provide and document formal training in crowd management
techniques for all personnel on such vessels; b) require that periodic
drills be conducted to reinforce the crowd management training; and c)
require that the vessel owners amend their emergency plans to reflect crowd
management techniques. (M-00-21)
Ensure that harbor emergency responders develop, in conjunction with local
permanently moored vessel owners, including resident Casinos, Inc., and the
McDonald's Corporation, contingency plans for boarding and exiting the
vessels when the standard means of egress become unusable, and amend the St.
Louis Harbor Emergency Response Plan to reflect the new procedures.
(M-00-22)
Conduct, in cooperation with the U.S. Coast Guard, the States of Missouri
and Illinois, and the city of East St. Louis, regular drills to exercise the
contingency plans for a variety of different marine scenarios, such as
stopping breakaway vessels or rescuing large numbers of people from the
Mississippi River. (M-00-23)
Either require owners of permanently moored vessels to protect their vessels
from waterborne and current-related risks so that their permanently moored
vessels are, in fact, equivalent to buildings or require that the owners
obtain U.S. Coast Guard certificates of inspection for their permanently
moored vessels. (M-00-24)
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=> Links Area
Atlantic
Hurricane Joyce was located near 11.5N 44.7W at 15:00 UTC. Joyce was moving
in a west-southwesterly direction at 12 knots with maximum sustained winds
estimated at 75 knots, gusts to 90 knots.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/TRCjoyce272_G8.jpg
Atlantic
This is a 2X zoom of Hurricane Isaac at 1500 meter resolution.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/TRCisaac272A_N4.jpg
Atlantic
This is a 1500 meter resolution NOAA-14 image of hurricane Isaac. Isaac was
located near 25.6N 53.5W at 15:00 UTC.
The hurricane has been moving in a northwesterly direction at 15 knots with
maximum sustained winds estimated at 105 knots, gusts to 130 knots.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/TRCisaac272B_N4.jpg
Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi
Heat signatures and smoke plumes are visible from fires burning in Alabama,
Georgia, and Mississippi. Some of these may be controlled agricultural
burns.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/US_Southeast/FSMHSusSE271_N4.jpg
Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington
Several heat signatures and smoke plumes are visible from fires burning in
northern Idaho, western Montana, northeastern Oregon, and eastern
Washington.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/US_Northwest/FSMHSusNW271A_N4.jpg
Northeast and upper Midwest United States
This NOAA-16 AVHRR image is provided as an interest item only and has not
been used to capture any significant event. It is one of the early channels
1, 2, 3 composites from the NOAA-16 satellite.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Unique/Other/UNIavhrr271_N6.jpg
E. Canada, Atlantic
"This image is the eastern Canadian and Atlantic segment of a swath
transmitted by the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit,
Sensor A (AMSU-A) on board the recently-launched NOAA-16 polar orbiting
satellite. Tuesday, 26 September 2000, 17:30 UTC,48 km. resolution. The
AMSU-A sensor detects microwave radiation at 15 wavelengths (channels). This
image contains data from all 15 channels in 15 panels. The channels are
similar in appearance but differ in the atmospheric and surface processes
they reveal. Some reveal surface features such as land or sea surface
temperature, and others reveal atmospheric properties such as air
temperature and water vapor content. The data values in the image are
temperatures color coded from blue (cold) through green and yellow to red
(warm). This image was processed by the NOAA/NESDIS Offices of Systems
Development (OSD) and Satellite Operations (OSO)"
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Unique/Other/UNIAAan270_N6.jpg
E. North America
"This image is the eastern North American segment of a swath transmitted by
the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit,
Sensor B (AMSU-B) on board the recently-launched NOAA-16 polar orbiting
satellite. Tuesday, 26 September 2000,
19:10 UTC, 16 km. resolution. The AMSU-B sensor detects microwave radiation
at five wavelengths (channels).
This image contains data from all five channels in five panels. The channels
are similar in appearance but
differ in the atmospheric and surface processes they reveal. Some reveal
surface features such as land or sea
surface temperature, and others reveal atmospheric properties such as air
temperature and water vapor content.
The data values in the image are temperatures color coded from blue (cold)
through green and yellow to red (warm).
This image was processed by the NOAA/NESDIS Offices of Systems Development
(OSD) and Satellite Operations (OSO)"
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Unique/Other/UNIABan270_N6.jpg
N. America
This is the first image from the NOAA-16 satellite launched on Thursday,
September 21, 2000. See the NOAA website at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov
for the full story.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Unique/Other/UNInoaa16265A_N6.jpg
N. America
This is the second image from the NOAA-16 satellite launched on Thursday,
September 21, 2000.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Unique/Other/UNInoaa16265B_N6.jpg
To destroy Colombia's coca fields, Bogota's troops will rely more
heavily on the U.S. military than the Clinton administration has
let on. The substantial American role now unfolding will invite
attacks: on U.S. troops, American civilians and U.S. businesses.
http://www.stratfor.com/latinamerica/analysis/0009290035.htm
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