Initiated by Naval Research Laboratory Monterrey, Ca. 13L Hurricane Isaac
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CESAR Group NOTICE 2 Proprietary Number CAI-27-0921-00 >
Toronto, Canada
DATE: 09/25/00
TIME OF MESSAGE: 2048Z
CESAR Group CF > 75% {at} 2048Z
NOTICE 2
CESAR Group Canada Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAI-27-0921-00 >
is issuing NOTICE 2 on Hurricane Isaac. This system continues to be well
organized and is maintaining its strength as a Category 1 Hurricane. The
central quad definition is defined on visible imagery. Isaac maintains intense
strong convective cells and surface SST conditions are conducive for his
sustained strength. The SSTA climatology at his present position is becoming
cooler a -0.05>-1.0°C and further north or west Isaac moves it will become a
less conducive environment for managing his strength and there should begin
the weakening of Isaac. However, at his present position, atmospheric
conditions are friendly for sustainability, with weak vertical wind shear
capping the system at +5Kts. There continues to be a storm "topath"
*experimental* signature in the area of Isaac. The package of convergence over
CAI-27-0921-00 > is weak to moderate +5>+10 on a broad axis. The rain rate has
lessened to 15mm in his central quadrant. Therefore, the forecast is that
Isaac will continue on a west>lay>north-westerly path at 9Kts 288° for the
next 6 hours. Central pressure is approximately 970Mb with winds estimated at
90Kts.
1) Present estimated position of (+/- 1°)= 17.4°N 40.8°W {at}1500 Z
2) Special Note: VISIBLE WIND IMAGERY ATTACHED
3) Next Message: 1830 Z 0927-00 if required
4) Next estimated position on a <24> Hour basis> = Not Determined
5) Speed in nautical mile (Knots)=9Kts Direction west>lay>northwesterly at
288°>
For additional information, emergency preparedness and procedures refer to
You're Caribbean National Emergency Management Agencies, the Local or Regional
Met offices and for tracks and probable landfall refer to NRL Monterey or NAV
Ops Atlantic. Text, Imagery and "Quick Scan" of these files at:
http://come.to/cesargroup\
NOTICE 2 FOR USE AS GUIDANCE ONLY
CG Team Patterson
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Sep 30 2000 - 20:08:38 EDT