THIS IS A CAUTIONARY NOTICE 1
CESAR Group CAUTIONARY NOTICE 1>>>>>Proprietary Number CAP-19-0828-00 >
DATE: 08/28/00
TIME OF NOTICE: 1800 EDT 2000Z
CG TURN TIME: <0> Hour 54 Mins.
CESAR Group CF >50% 1904 EDT 2304 Z
CESAR Group Canada Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAP-19-0828-00 > is
issuing CAUTIONARY NOTICE 1 on a Weather Area to the Greater Antilles> 331
nautical miles west of Jamaica as of 1828 EDT 2228 Z. This weather area has
strong convection in the central quadrant and visible imagery indicates a weak
low circulation. AVN, NOGAPS and UK Met are in agreement that no tropical
storm development is to occur with this system. The winds aloft (100Mb) are
48-52Knots mid-level winds (500Mb) 18-25 Kts with surface winds at
approximately 17.9 Knots. The oceanic indicators such as SST's are +29°C>+30°C
and the SSTA's are +.5°C+ which are conducive for development.Precipitation is
30-45 mm over a 3hr accumulative rate. The atmospheric conditions are not
conducive for quick development. There are no negative divergence packages
within 220+ Nautical miles of the weather area and a positive divergence cap
is weak to moderate enveloping CAP-19-0828-00. The system is encountering a
moderate wind shear of 20 Knots and this will affect the weather area's
ability to strengthen and or could dissipate the system entirely.
Our NOTICE also includes associated weather and all NEMA Agencies should be
aware of severe weather that may initiate micro bursts or other weather
anomalies including high winds, heavy rain, flooding (Flash) and collateral
damage from mud slides.
1. PRESENT ESTIMATED POSITION OF CENTRAL AREA (+/- 1. °)= 19.9°N> -82.0°W as
of 1758 EDT 2158 Z direction east>lay>northeasterly
2. SPECIAL NOTE: Imagery Attached
3. NEXT NOTICE: Final Notice unless warranted
4. THIS IS NOTICE 1 > IN EFFECT UNTIL 0900 EDT 1300 Z
5. Next Position estimated on a -12 Hour basis: 21.6 °N> - 80.24°W
6. Speed in nautical mile (Knots)= 15-17 Knots east>lay>northeasterly
For additional information, emergency preparedness and procedures refer to
You're Caribbean National Emergency Management Agencies, the Local or Regional
Met offices and for tracks and probable land fall refer to NRL Monterey or NAV
Ops Atlantic. Text and Imagery of these files at http://come.to/cesargroup\
THIS NOTICE IS FOR USE AS GUIDANCE ONLY
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CG Team..Sloot
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