The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For August 27, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Notes
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast and Excessive Rainfall Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column -- The Debby Fiasco -- DH Tolleris
=> Mule Dry Fire Blazes Across Southern Washington
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> Statement By The President "The wildfire season this year...."
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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=> Subscribe/Unsubscribe information
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For August 27, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
------------------------------------------------------------
=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Sat...112 At Childress TX
Low Sun...33 At Stanley ID
=> Special Notes
We have a guest column today about Hurricane Debby from DH Tolleris of
wxrisk.com
The fires are still burning bringtly in the northwest.
A red flag warning is posted in southern Idaho, southwest Montana, eastern
Oregon, western and central Wyoming.
A fire weather watch is posted in northeastern Wyoming, the black
hills central Montana, eastern Washington, Columbia river basin of Oregon
and southeastern Oregon
=> Current Tropical Weather Outlook For The North Atlantic Caribbean Sea And
The Gulf Of Mexico
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Sun Aug 27 11:34:56 2000
Flash Flood
Maryland
Virginia
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN DORCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
MARYLAND * UNTIL NOON EDT
Special Marine
Alabama
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE... WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA, FL
EXTENDING OUT TO 20 NM * UNTIL NOON CDT
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE... COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA, FL TO
PASCAGOULA, MS OUT 20 NM * UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
Ohio
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR LAKE ERIE... FROM THE ISLANDS TO CONNEAUT
INCLUDING THE ADJACENT OPEN WATERS * UNTIL NOON EDT * AT 958 AM EDT...THE
PUBLIC REPORTED A WATERSPOUT JUST OFFSHORE AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF BURKE
LAKEFRONT AIRPORT. MOVEMENT OF THE WATERSPOUT WAS NOT KNOWN.
Non Precipitation
Arkansas
...VERY HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WILL PUSH THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX TO A
RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
Idaho
...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM NOON THROUGH 800 PM
MDT THIS EVENING...
Kansas
...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY
Oklahoma
...THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY.
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slight
There is less than a 2% probability of a tornado.
Hail Risk - Slight
There are two 5% probability areas for hail 3/4 inch or larger.
One area covers the southeast 1/4 of Nebraska, northeast Kansas, southwest
Iowa, and central and northern Missouri.
The other area covers far eastern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South
Carolina, northern Florida, central south Tennessee, and central and eastern
North Carolina.
Wind Risk -
There are two 5% probability areas for winds in excess of 50 knots..
One area covers the southeast 1/4 of Nebraska, northeast Kansas, southwest
Iowa, and central and northern Missouri.
The other area covers far eastern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South
Carolina, northern Florida, central south Tennessee, and central and eastern
North Carolina.
There are two 15% probability areas.
One covers southeast Nebraska, far northeast Kansas, far southwest Iowa, and
northeast Missouri.
The other covers the southeast 1/2 of Alabama, central and southern Georgia,
and southern South Carolina.
Tomorrow's Risk -
The risk area tomorrow covers far northeast Nebraska, southeast South
Dakota, Minnesota, northcentral and northern Iowa, and Wisconsin except the
southeast corner.
Expect the worst weather over northeastern Minnesota.
Other areas at a lesser degree of risk include: eastern Georgia, far
northeastern Florida, South Carolina except the northwest corner and
southern east North Carolina.
=> Precipitation Forecast and Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hr precipitation forecast is calling for over an inch of rainfall
over eastern West Virginia, central Maryland and northern Virginia, and over
southeastern Florida.
The 24 - 48 hr precipitation forecast is calling for over an inch of
rainfall over eastern portions of North Carolina and over far northeastern
South Carolina.
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall may exceed flash flood values over far northeast Georgia, far
northwest South Carolina, central and western Virginia, far northeastern
Tennessee, and eastern West Virginia.
=> USA Flood Report
The Flood Report is not available on weekends
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SITUATION REPORT
SUNDAY, AUGUST 27, 2000 - 0700 MDT
NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS LEVEL V
CURRENT SITUATION:
Initial attack activity was moderate in the Northern Rockies, minimal
elsewhere in the nation. A total of eight new large fires were reported in
the Northern Rockies, Northwest, Eastern Basin and the Southern Area. Crews
reached containment goals on four large fires in the Northwest, Western and
Eastern Great Basin. Strong gusty winds caused very active fire behavior on
the large fires. Very high to extreme fire indices have been reported in
the western states, North Dakota, Texas and Oklahoma.
President Clinton announced yesterday that he is granting immediate
authority to appropriately compensate employees of the Departments of the
Interior and Agriculture for "working long, stressful hours" in support of
wildland firefighting efforts throughout the country. Federal employees who
generally fill supervisory and management positions, are limited under the
Fair Labor Standards Act, from receiving full overtime benefits. By
granting this authority, those federal employees will now receive full
time-and-a-half of their normal base salary for hours worked beyond their
normal schedules. The agencies are currently establishing processes to meet
the President's order.
NORTHERN ROCKIES AREA LARGE FIRES:
An Area Command Team (Edrington) is assigned to manage the large fires in
the Hamilton area. An Area Command Team (Mann) and a Type II Incident
Management Team (Adams) are assigned to manage the large fires in southwest
Montana. An Area Command Team (Meuchel) is assigned to manage the large
fires in central Montana. An Area Command Team (Gale) is assigned to manage
the large fires in northwest Montana. Priorities are being established by
the Northern Rockies Multi-Agency Coordinating Group based on information
submitted via Wildfire Situation Analysis reports and Incident Status
Summary (ICS-209) forms.
VALLEY COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type I Incident Management
Team (Gage) is assigned. The Army's 3rd Battalion 327th Infantry from Ft.
Campbell, KY, commanded by LTC Lehr, is assigned. These fires are seven
miles south of Darby, MT. The complex consists of the Bear, Taylor, Taylor
Spot, Hilltop, Razor, Fat and Mink fires. The Valley and Mussigbrod
complexes have burned together. Evacuations remain in effect. Fire activity
increased today with windy conditions.
SKALKAHO COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type I Incident Management
Team (Myers) is assigned. This group of fires is ten miles southeast of
Hamilton, MT. Included in the complex are the Bear, Coyote and Skalkaho
Falls fires. The fire remained active with continual backing, moderate
torching and isolated crowning. Structure protection is in place.
BLODGETT TRAILHEAD, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Hendricks) is assigned. This fire is three miles northwest
of Hamilton, MT. Fire behavior remained light with much of the western
perimeter burning into natural barriers.
WILDERNESS COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Cook) is assigned. The complex consists of 14 fires in the
Selway-Bitterroot and Frank Church River of No Return Wildernesses, 40
miles southwest of Hamilton, MT. Large fires in the complex include the
Hamilton, Lonely, Fitz, Thirty, Echo and Throng fires. Wind speeds of 20-30
miles per hour were observed.
THOMPSON FLAT COMPLEX, Lolo National Forest. A Type I Incident Management
Team (Studebaker) is assigned. This is a complex of six fires in the
vicinity of Superior, MT. Crews made excellent progress toward containment
on the Moore fire. Structure protection operations in Trout Creek and
Quartz Flat are ongoing.
UPPER NINEMILE COMPLEX, Lolo National Forest. A Type I Incident Management
Team (Bateman) is assigned. The Army's 20th Engineers Battalion from Ft.
Hood, Texas, commanded by LTC Shumway, is assigned. These fires are burning
25 miles northwest of Missoula, MT. Strong gusty winds continue to hamper
containment objectives. Structure protection plan was developed for the
Fish Creek drainage.
CLEAR CREEK DIVIDE COMPLEX, Flathead Agency, BIA. A Type I Incident
Management Team (MacGregor) is assigned. This complex, 60 miles northwest
of Missoula, consists of the Clear Creek, Vanderburg, Siegel, Seepay and
Magpie Creek fires. Windy conditions continue to hamper control efforts.
The potential for communities along Highway 200 to be threatened still
exists.
RYAN GULCH, Southwestern Land Office, Montana Department of Natural
Resources and Conservation. A Type II Incident Management Team (Hoff) is
assigned. This fire is 15 miles east of Clinton, MT. Progress continued
with mopup and rehabilitation operations.
SCHLEY, Flathead Agency, BIA. A Type II Incident Management Team (Carlson)
is assigned. This fire is burning eight miles south of Arlee, MT. Despite
windy conditions crews were able to hold containment firelines.
MONTURE/SPREAD RIDGE, Lolo National Forest. A Type I Incident Management
Team (Wands) is assigned. The fires are 15 miles east of Seeley Lake, MT.
Crews are working to keep fire spread on the Monture fire south of
Lodgepole Creek, and on the Spread ridge fire from crossing Spread Creek.
Rolling material continues to be the primary cause of fire spread on both
fires.
CROOKED, Clearwater National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Anderson) is assigned. The fire is 50 miles southwest of Missoula, MT,
near Lolo Pass. The team is also managing ten other fires, most of which
are in the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness.
MAUDLOW/TOSTON, Central Land Office, Montana Department of Natural
Resources and Conservation. Two Type II Incident Management Teams (Joki and
Greene) are assigned. These fires are 25 miles northeast of Belgrade, MT.
Passage of a frontal system caused an increase in fire activity with
numerous upslope runs. Highway 12 was closed due to smoke and fire
activity.
MIDDLE FORK COMPLEX, Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest. A Type I
Incident Management Team (Carvelho) is assigned. The complex consists of
the Falls Creek, Cougar Creek/Coyote Springs/Medicine Lake (CCML), Skalkaho
Pass, Lick Creek and Cooper Creek fires, 30 miles southwest of Philipsburg,
MT. Fire activity continued to be high with clear skies and gusty winds.
MUSSIGBROD COMPLEX, Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest. A Type I Incident
Management Team (Humphrey) is assigned. These fires are 12 miles northwest
of Wisdom, MT. The complex includes the Mussigbrod and Maynard fires, but
these two fires have now burned together at their southern flanks. Intense
fire behavior was observed with interior plume dominated runs and spotting
up to 1/2 a mile ahead of the fire. Dense smoke limits the visibility of
the exact fire location.
KOOTENAI COMPLEX, Kootenai National Forest. A Canadian Type I Incident
Management Team (Longpre) is assigned. These fires are 20 miles northwest
of Libby, MT. No significant fire activity was observed despite windy
conditions.
STONE YOUNG, Kootenai National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Colla) is assigned. The complex is 65 miles northeast of Libby, MT. Windy
conditions tested firelines and caused some spotting across the containment
lines.
TROY SOUTH, Kootenai National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Berndt) is assigned. This complex of fires is near Troy, MT. Threats to
urban interface and wilderness continue. Twenty three fires within the
complex have been controlled and are in patrol status.
GREEN MOUNTAIN, Kootenai National Forest. These fires are seven miles
northwest of Trout Creek, MT. The complex includes the Green Mountain,
McNeeley, Basin Creek and Engle fires. Crews continue to make good progress
on mopup and patrol.
CHIPMUNK, Flathead National Forest. The fire is burning in spruce,
subalpine fir and brush 45 miles southeast of Kalispell, MT. The fire is
moving toward the east with significant activity observed in the more
heavily forested portions of the fire. Continual spotting to the north is a
concern.
BEAVER CREEK, Gallatin National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Corbin) is assigned. This fire is south of Big Sky, MT. Fire behavior
moderated with the precipitation and higher relative humidity with the
passage of thunderstorms.
BURNT FLATS, Clearwater area, Idaho State Department of Lands. Two Type II
Incident Management Teams (Ostman and Christie) are assigned. The fire is
three miles from Whitebird, ID. No new information was reported.
MALONEY CREEK, Clearwater Area, Idaho State Department of Lands. A Type II
Incident Management Team (Specht) is assigned. This fire is 12 miles
southeast of Craigmont, ID. Crews continue to contain spot fires and
slopovers.
NORTHWEST PEAKS COMPLEX, Idaho Panhandle National Forest. A Type II
Incident Management Team (Tainsh) is assigned. The fires are burning in
subalpine fir and spruce seven miles southeast of Eastport, ID. High
relative humidity helped to moderate fire behavior.
THREE BEARS, Nez Perce National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Cones) is assigned. This fire is on both sides of the Salmon River, 29
miles from Elk City, ID. Observed fire behavior included torching and runs,
especially in areas exposed to the wind.
SPRUCE COMPLEX, Yellowstone National Park. This is a complex of 11 fires in
Yellowstone National Park. The complex consists of the Plateau, Moose,
Unlucky, Boundary and several smaller fires. Frontal passage caused
overcast skies, increased relative humidity and gusty winds, but no
precipitation.
HELEN CREEK, Flathead National Forest. This fire is 22 miles south of
Spotted Bear, MT. The fire is actively backing to the west and south with
minimal movement to the north. The fire is being monitored by U.S. Forest
Service personnel. Continued threats are to structures including the Mud
Lake Lookout.
NOSEBAG 22, Idaho Panhandle National Forest. This fire is burning in
subalpine fir, spruce, brush and grass 18 miles northeast of Sandpoint, ID.
Higher relative humidity and cooler temperatures moderated fire activity.
JUDITH COMPLEX, Lewis and Clark National Forest. This complex consists of
the Studhorse, Lost Fork and High Springs fires, which are 25 miles
southwest of Stanford, MT. Fire behavior moderated despite low relative
humidity and gusty winds.
HIDDEN CREEK, Clearwater National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Anderson) is assigned. The fire is 12 miles southeast of Powell, ID.
Moderately active burning has been observed.
LONG RIDGE, Nez Perce National Forest. This fire is in the Selway-
Bitterroot Wilderness, 14 miles southwest of the Moose Creek Ranger
Station. The fire is being monitored by reconnaissance flights and by the
Gardiner Lookout.
MINARET PEAK, Flathead National Forest. The fire is near the Spotted Bear
Ranger Station in the Bob Marshall Wilderness. The rate of spread is slow
and the fire is backing.
EAST THUNDER 14, Idaho Panhandle National Forest. This fire is 23 miles
east of Sandpoint, ID. Fuels are subalpine fir, spruce, brush and grass.
Forest Service personnel are monitoring the fire. The fire is backing down
cliffs and steep terrain on the west flank. It is less than half a mile
from leaving a proposed wilderness boundary.
SUGARLOAF, Gallatin National Forest. The fire is 13 miles northeast of
Wilsall, MT. The fire is being monitored by U.S. Forest Service personnel.
Fire activity has been low.
FROG LAKE, Clearwater National Forest. The fire is 16 miles southeast of
Powell, ID. The fire is being monitored by U.S. Forest Service personnel.
ELIZABETH, Clearwater National Forest. The fire is 33 miles northeast of
Pierce, ID. The fire is being monitored by U.S. Forest Service personnel.
SNOW CREEK, Clearwater National Forest. The fire is 30 miles northeast of
Pierce, ID. U.S. Forest Service personnel are monitoring the fire.
ALDER CREEK, Lolo National Forest. This lightning-caused fire is 31 miles
southeast of Missoula, MT. Strong gusty winds and very dry conditions
pushed the fire to 1300 acres in a short period.
CRIMSON PEAK, Flathead National Forest. This fire is located in the Bob
Marshall Wilderness. It is being monitored by U.S. Forest Service
personnel.
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AREA LARGE FIRES:
Priorities are being established by the Great Basin Multi-Agency
Coordinating Group based on information submitted via Wildfire Situation
Analysis reports and Incident Status Summary (ICS-209) forms.
TRAIL CREEK, Boise National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Shell) is assigned. This fire is near the community of Atlanta, ID.
Structure protection and safety remain the primary concerns. Fire activity
was intense in the southern and western parts of the fire, mostly in the
interior unburned islands.
MARLIN SPRINGS, Salmon-Challis National Forest. This fire is burning along
the ridge between Montana and Idaho, 40 miles northwest of Salmon, ID. This
complex consists of the Marlin Springs, Full Circle and Sister fires. The
Marlin Springs fire is in extremely difficult terrain and heavy fuels.
Evacuation plans for the communities of North Fork and Gibbonsville, ID,
are in place if the need arises.
CLEAR CREEK, Salmon-Challis National Forest. A Type I Incident Management
Team (Hutchison) is assigned. The fire is ten miles west of Salmon, ID. The
3rd Battalion 5th Marines from Camp Pendleton, California, commanded by Col.
Callihan, is assigned. The fire has established itself in Panther and
Silver Creek. Current threats are structures East of Panther Creek and the
watershed for the City of Salmon. Resources were removed from the fireline
as a precautionary measure due to strong winds and extreme fire behavior.
TETON COMPLEX, Grand Teton National Park, NPS. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Murphy) is assigned. This complex is north of Jackson, WY.
It consists of the Wilcox, Moran, Hechtman, Glade and Enos fires. Crews are
making good progress on the Glade fire. The Enos fire has structure
protection plans in place for the Buffalo Valley and Pacific Creek areas.
The Wilcox fire continues to spot and advance slowly to the west and north.
BLIND TRAIL COMPLEX, Bridger-Teton National Forest. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Williams) is assigned. This complex consists of the Blind
and Boulder fires. The fires are 26 miles southeast of Jackson, WY. The
Boulder fire increased in activity, necessitating the use of helicopters
and crews. The Blind fire received light precipitation, although the
benefits of that rain was short lived.
FONTENELLE, Bridger-Teton National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Mesenbrink) is assigned. This lightning-caused fire is 20 miles north
of Kemmerer, WY. Continued torching in subalpine and fir stands. The fire
grew in isolated areas, although not in large amounts.
NICK, Payette National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team (Saleen)
is assigned. This fire is burning in subalpine fir 12 miles east of McCall,
ID. Structure protection plans and evacuation plans are in place. The fire
is well established in Fitsum Creek and on Six Mile ridge. Structure
protection and evacuation plans for the Zena Ranch, Krassel work station,
the town of Yellowpine and Eiguren Ranch are complete if needed.
BURGDORF JUNCTION, Payette National Forest. A Type I Incident Management
Team (Dague) is assigned. The 3rd Battalion 16th Field Artillery from Ft.
Hood, Texas, commanded by LTC Darryl Williams, will be demobilized from the
fire on August 27th and flying out of Boise, ID on the 28th. The fire is 23
miles north of McCall, ID. Structure protection continues to be successful.
SIDDOWAY, Targhee National Forest. This fire is located 14 miles east of
Swan Valley burning in moderate to heavy fuels. Limited access is hampering
control efforts. Fire activity has been minimal today with isolated
torching and runs in the unburned islands within the fire perimeter.
HALF MOON COMPLEX, Bridger-Teton National Forest. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Williams) is assigned. This complex, consisting of the
Half Moon and the Triangle Lake fires, is near Pinedale, WY. Excellent
progress has been made in the mopup stages of the Half Moon fire.
INDIAN/PROSPECT, Payette National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Saleen) is assigned. The fire is 33 miles east of McCall, ID. The
fire has burned to the perimeter of Stibnite, a historical mining site, and
continues to back downslope toward the historic mining town of Cinnibar.
MORSE, Salmon-Challis National Forest. The fire is burning in grass,
sagebrush and douglas fir five miles east of May, ID. Scattered cloud cover
and higher humidity aided in control efforts. Structure protection has been
implemented for seasonal residences in Little Morgan Creek.
DIAMOND COMPLEX, Payette National Forest. These lightning-caused fires are
42 miles northeast of McCall, ID. This complex consists of the Lookout,
Point, North Shellrock and South Shellrock fires.
HARMON CREEK, Dixie National Forest. This fire is located 25 miles north of
St. George, UT. Some torching and upslope runs developed in thick brush and
heavy frost killed oak. Low live fuel moistures and difficult terrain
present control problems.
SCF WILDERNESS, Salmon-Challis National Forest. A Type II Incident
Management Team has been assigned. Eleven wildland fires are currently
burning within the Salmon Challis Wilderness Complex: Little Pistol, Indian
Creek, Filly, Butts, Papoose, Parker, Packer Meadow, Shell Rock, Wilson
Creek, Jackass and Jack Creek. The Little Pistol fire crossed the Middle
Fork of the Salmon River and is burning downstream towards the east.
FLOSSIE COMPLEX, Payette National Forest. These fires are 50 miles
northeast of McCall, ID. Structure protection continues at Root Ranch.
NORTHWEST AREA LARGE FIRES:
MULE DRY, Yakima Agency, BIA. This fire is northeast of Goldendale, WA.
Wind speeds were less than predicted, which allowed crews to make good
progress.
HASH ROCK, Ochoco National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Mountz) has been ordered. This fire is nine miles north of Prineville, OR.
The fire is moving toward the Mill Creek Wilderness. Steep terrain and
inaccessibility are hampering containment efforts. Structure protection is
in place.
EASTSIDE COMPLEX, Wallowa-Whitman National Forest. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Gardner) is assigned. This is a group of 11 lightning-
caused fires between Joseph and Halfway, OR, on the national forest lands.
Current threats are to numerous cabins, historic structures, powerlines,
grazing lands, private lands and fisheries.
CARROLL, Oregon Department of Forestry. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Gilpin) is assigned. This fire was formerly known as the Incident 312
fire. The fire is on state and national forest lands east of Joseph, OR.
Extreme fire behavior was observed. Evacuation plans are in place.
MEADOW, Umatilla National Forest. This fire was ignited by lightning on
8/24, 20 miles southeast of Ukiah, OR. Spotting remains a concern for
containment.
SNIPTION CANYON, Prineville District, BLM. The fire is burning in grass and
sagebrush five miles southwest of Condon, OR.
FLAT CREEK, Wenachee National Forest. This fire is 70 miles south of
Chelan, WA, in the Glacier Peak Wilderness. It has been monitored by aerial
reconnaissance since 7/27 with no significant acreage change since 8/25.
HARMONY, Prineville District, BLM. This fire is burning in sagebrush and
grass 15 miles northeast of Grass Valley, OR.
ROSE BRIAR, Prineville District, BLM. The fire is 15 miles northwest of
Condon, OR.
SUNDAY HILL, Vale District, BLM. This fire is burning in timber, mahogany
and grass 10 miles south of Durkee, OR.
WESTERN GREAT BASIN AREA LARGE FIRES:
Priorities are being established by the Great Basin Multi-Agency
Coordinating Group based on information submitted via Wildfire Situation
Analysis reports and Incident Status Summary (ICS-209) forms.
BLUE MOUNTAIN, Winnemucca Field Office, BLM. This fire is located 12 miles
west of Winnemucca, NV. The fire continued to burn actively in grass, sage,
pinyon pine and juniper fuels. Minor interior torching occurred. Crews are
continuing with mopup and cold trailing.
PHILLIPS RANCH, Humboldt-Toiyabe National Forest and Great Basin National
Park. The fire is 50 miles southeast of Ely, NV, and is being monitored by
Park Service personnel. Crews performed mop up operations along the west
finger.
CHERRY, Ely Field Office, BLM. This fire is 30 miles northwest of Ely, NV.
Wildlife habitat and the Goshute Wilderness Study Area remain threatened.
BLM personnel are monitoring the fire.
LITTLE WATER, Humboldt National Forest. This fire is 60 miles southeast of
Elko, NV, burning in white fir, isolated pinyon pine and mahogany. U. S.
Forest Service personnel are monitoring the fire.
MAMMOTH, Humboldt-Toiyabe National Forest. The fire is burning in white fir
and pinyon pine 75 miles southwest of Ely, NV, within the Grant Range
Wilderness Area.
U.S. Forest Service personnel continue to monitor this fire.
ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA LARGE FIRES:
JASPER, Black Hills National Forest. This fire is 15 miles east of
Newcastle, WY. Highway 16 is still closed due to fire spreading along both
sides of the roadway. Fire behavior includes crowning, profuse spotting and
running. Steep canyons are creating access problems. Additional
precautionary evacuations occurred as homes and Jewel Cave National
Monument were threatened.
ST. LAWRENCE, Wind River Agency, BIA. This fire is burning in the Wind
River Roadless Area ten miles northwest of Fort Washakie. Minimal fire
activity reported.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA LARGE FIRES:
STORRIE, Plumas National Forest. A Type I Incident Management Team (Vail)
is assigned. The fire is 20 miles west of Quincy, CA, in the Feather River
Canyon. Fire activity moderated.
SOUTHWEST AREA LARGE FIRES:
NORTH, Tonto National Forest. This fire is burning in ponderosa pine in the
Mazatzal Wilderness, six miles southwest of Payson, AZ. The fire is
monitored by U.S. Forest Service personnel.
CRAZY, Gila National Forest. This fire started on 8/8 in Catron County. The
U.S. Forest Service is monitoring the fire by air and ground as needed.
SOUTHERN AREA LARGE FIRES:
POSSOM, Florida Division of Forestry. The fire is near Orlando, FL.
Highways 50 and 520 remain closed due to zero visibility. The Orlando metro
area is being impacted by smoke. No new information was received.
LIVE OAK LOOP, Texas State Forest Service. Several subdivisions were
threatened 30 miles north of Waco, TX. National Guard helicopters assisted
firefighting efforts with bucket drops.
DOC'S, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is located 50 miles west of
Ft. Worth, TX. The fire is burning in oak, juniper, cedar, and mesquite
fuels in rough and inaccessible terrain. This fire is being assisted by the
state National Guard helicopters.
JACKSBORO, Texas State Forest Serive. This fire is burning in oak, mesquite
and juniper 50 miles northwest of Ft. Worth, TX.
OUTLOOK:
*** A RED FLAG WARNING IS POSTED IN SOUTHERN IDAHO, SOUTHWEST MONTANA, AND
EASTERN OREGON FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
*** A RED FLAG WARNING IS POSTED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING FOR STRONG
WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY LIGHTNING.
*** A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK
HILLS FOR DRY LIGHTNING.
*** A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED IN CENTRAL MONTANA, EASTERN WASHINGTON,
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN OF OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON FOR GUSTY WINDS.
A Pacific trough moving along the Canadian border will bring increased
southwest winds to the northwest states. Gusts in excess of 30 mph are
possible. Monsoon moisture will remain south. This will bring more wet
thunderstorms to the southwest states.
Ridgetop winds will generally be southwest at 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-40
mph in the northwest. Further south winds will be upslope or southwest at
speeds under 20 mph with stronger gusts near thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be in the lower 70's to mid 80's in the mountains, mid
80's to 90's in the lower elevations and 100 to 110 in the hottest deserts.
Relative humidity will be in the teens and 20's with some single digits
occurring in the driest areas.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 AUG 27 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN STATE OF ALASKA
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 AUG 26 09:02:51.75 53.3 N 175.1 W 222 km 5.1
80 miles NNW of Atka, Alaska
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
No reports received
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1744 100 4 N PINEVILLE MECKLENBURG NC 3526 8078 QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED
BY HAM RADIO SPOTTER. (GSP)
2040 100 TRAER TAMA IA 4219 9246 SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN QUARTER SIZE. REPORTED
BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (DSM)
2213 75 TEMPLE TERRACE HILLSBOROUGH FL 2804 8238 NORTH OF FOWLER AND EAST OF
56TH. REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (TBW)
2257 75 1 S VIRGINIA BATES MO 3824 9450 (MCI)
2325 75 SUN CITY HILLSBOROUGH FL 2766 8248 ON HAYES BAYOU RD. NEAR THE
LITTLE MANATEE RIVER. REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (TBW)
0005 100 PRAIRIE CITY MCDONOUGH IL 4061 9044 QUARTER SIZED HAIL. REPORTED BY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (MLI)
0015 75 LINDON UTAH UT 4034 11171 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (SLC)
0020 175 MARIETTA FULTON IL 4049 9038 REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVER (SPI)
0056 75 1 W LEWISTOWN FULTON IL 4039 9017 (SPI)
0151 125 3 NW PETERSBURG MENARD IL 4005 8989 (SPI)
0216 400 5 E CERRO GORDO PIATT IL 3988 8862 ACTUALLY MEASURED PUBLIC REPORT.
(SPI)
0317 100 BEMENT PIATT IL 3991 8856 TREES AND POWER LINES ALSO REPORTED BLOWN
DOWN. REPORTED BY ESDA. (SPI)
0400 75 3 N MATTOON COLES IL 3953 8836 (SPI)
0440 75 GREENUP CUMBERLAND IL 3925 8816 TREES ALSO REPORTED BLOWN DOWN BY
LAW ENFORCEMENT (SPI)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1400 UNK 2 S LAKE MILLS JEFFERSON WI 4304 8890 TREES DOWN MUD LAKE RD.
REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (MKE)
1417 UNK JOHNSON CREEK JEFFERSON WI 4308 8876 WIRES DOWN. (MKE)
1545 UNK 11 NW LAWRENCEBURG LAWRENCE TN 3537 8749 2 TREES DOWN ON HWY 240 IN
THE TOWN OF CENTER (BNA)
2125 UNK ORLAND STEUBEN IN 4173 8516 SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN. POWER LINES
DOWN. (FWA)
2145 UNK 5 NNW PLANT CITY HILLSBOROUGH FL 2809 8215 8 PLANES DAMAGED AND 2
HANGARS DESTROYED AT ULTRALIGHT FLIGHT OFF OF SR 39 NORTHWEST OF PLANT CITY.
REPORTED BY WFST-TV AND WFLA-TV. (TBW)
2200 UNK THONOTOSASSA HILLSBOROUGH FL 2804 8230 OVERTURNED TRAILER ON FIVE
ACRE ROAD. REPORTED BY WFTS-TV. (TBW)
2215 UNK TEMPLE TERRACE HILLSBOROUGH FL 2804 8238 SEVERAL TREES DOWN AT
10001 DAVIS RD. REPORTED BY WFLA-TV. (TBW)
2230 UNK 1 E BIG TIMBER SWEET GRASS MT 4583 10992 LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
GARAGE BLEW DOWN AND TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN (BIL)
2235 UNK AJO PIMA AZ 3236 11286 APPARENT MICROBURST. 3 HOUS WITH ROOF
DAMAGE. SEVERAL P POLES DOWNED. (TUS)
2235 UNK 2 W SOMERSET CENTER HILLSDALE MI 4204 8446 TREES DOWN. WINDOWS
BLOWN OUT OF MOBILE HOME. REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (FWA)
2325 UNK SUN CITY HILLSBOROUGH FL 2766 8248 2 LARGE TREES DOWN AND EXTENSIVE
DAMAGE TO A PORCH ON A MODULAR HOME. ON HAYES BAYOU NEAR THE LITTLE MANATEE
RIVER. REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (TBW)
2330 UNK JACKSON JACKSON MI 4223 8439 LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED PART OF ROOF
AND WALL OF BOWLING ALLEY COLLAPSED (GRR)
2340 UNK 4 NNW FOSTER BATES MO 3822 9454 REPORTED BY FIRE AND RESCUE. 12 BY
12 SHED BLOWN OVER. PART OF SKIRTING BLOWN OFF OF MOBILE HOME. 6 INCH TREE
LIMBS IN THE ROAD. (MCI)
2350 UNK 2 NNW MONTROSE HENRY MO 3829 9399 POWER LINES AND POLES DOWN AT
HIGHWAYS K AND 18. REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (MCI)
2350 UNK POPLARVILLE PEARL RIVER MS 3083 8953 A TREE BLOWN DOWN. REPORTED BY
LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (NEW)
2159 77 OLATHE JOHNSON CO ARPT JOHNSON KS 3883 9490 ALSO A REPORT OF TREES
AND POWER POLES DOWN AT 143RD AND BLACKBOB IN OLATHE (MCI)
2325 60 SUN CITY HILLSBOROUGH FL 2766 8248 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (TBW)
0109 UNK CAMDEN HILLSDALE MI 4175 8476 NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. (FWA)
0120 UNK 4 SW HAVANA MASON IL 4025 9012 LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED TREES WERE
REPORTED BLOWN DOWN IN MATANZAS BEACH. DAMAGING HAIL REPORTED. REPORTED BY
SHERIFF. (SPI)
0147 UNK 3 W MORENCI LENAWEE MI 4171 8428 TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED TREES
DOWN (DTX)
0225 UNK 4 NW ATWOOD PIATT IL 3984 8852 LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED TREES BLOWN
DOWN AND SIDING BLOWN OFF HOUSES. (SPI)
0247 UNK 4 W ATWOOD PIATT IL 3979 8855 LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED TREES BLOWN
DOWN BETWEEN HAMMOND AND ATWOOD ON ROUTE 36. (SPI)
0435 UNK TOLEDO CUMBERLAND IL 3926 8825 LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED ESTIMATED
60 MPH WINDS. TREES REPORTED BLOWN DOWN. (SPI)
0455 UNK PALESTINE CRAWFORD IL 3900 8761 LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED TREE FELL
ON HOUSE (SPI)
0527 UNK BRUCEVILLE KNOX IN 3875 8741 TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. REPORTED
BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (IND)
0555 UNK 5 NW MARION MARION OH 4064 8321 TREE DOWN (CLE)
0615 UNK CALEDONIA MARION OH 4063 8296 TREES DOWN (CLE)
0630 UNK MOUNT GILEAD MORROW OH 4054 8283 TREES DOWN (CLE)
0640 UNK GALION CRAWFORD OH 4073 8278 FEW TREES DOWN (CLE)
0724 UNK SE REED HENDERSON KY 3784 8734 TREE DOWN ON CAR ON U.S. HIGHWAY 60,
JUST WEST OF HENDERSON-DAVIESS CO. LINE (PAH)
0745 UNK 10 W OWENSBORO DAVIESS KY 3776 8732 TREE FELL BLOCKING HIGHWAY 60
(PAH)
0758 UNK UTICA DAVIESS KY 3761 8711 LIMBS AND POWER LINES DOWN (PAH)
0800 UNK MORGANTOWN BUTLER KY 3721 8669 TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE . REPORTED BY
LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SDF)
0810 UNK CANEYVILLE GRAYSON KY 3741 8650 TREES DOWN ACROSS WESTERN PART OF
COUNTY. REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (SDF)
0137 60 4 S LAUREL YELLOWSTONE MT 4561 10876 TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED LARGE
BRANCHES WERE BROKEN OFF TREES. (BIL)
0155 60 ACTON YELLOWSTONE MT 4593 10868 TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED (BIL)
0401 64 MATTOON COLES IL 3948 8836 WIND GUST RECORDED AT COLES COUNTY
AIRPORT. (SPI)
0550 60 OLNEY RICHLAND IL 3873 8808 (SPI)
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column The Debby Fiasco DH Tolleris
Folks
After looking over all the data over the past week with regard to Debby...
it seems clear to me that the winner and still champion of the forecast
world -- as it relates to the Debby Fiasco -- is the ECMWF.
The ECMWF was frequently dismissed in various forms by many forecasters
both private and govt. The european consistently weakened debby and
sheared it apart. In fact it NEVER --not once - developed or intensified
Debby. Moreover the ECMWF'S 's position of shoving Debby to the WSW
into Cuba along with the weakening the system was by far and away the
best model performance there was.
Over the last several years with regard to the tropics the ECMWF has never
failed. I know this is going to seem like a extreme statement to many but it
is factually accurate. It performed the best in 98 with Floyd by as far
out as 6 days a Landfall NOT over Floroida but eastern NC and VA (which is
what occurred). It was the first model to show Dennis would satll off the
east coast for 3 days. And it was the ONLY model that showed Bonnie in 1998
would pass over Norfolk VA 60 hrs before landfall-- when the official track
placed it just over Cape Hatteras then turned her sharplu out to sea.
Anyway getting back to Debby... the ECMWF appeared not to pick (initialize)
Debby well and I, like many others, the ECMWF solution skeptically. But it
was there staring us in the face and we dismissed it out of hand. And
the southern track of the Nogaps was also consistent and its reputation as
a decent tropical model was also disregarded.
Moreover another lesson learned is this: From Day 9 (that is AUG 15) the
MRF consistently showed a large strong tropical system (i.e. Hurricane) on
OR just off the East coast of the US. Both runs of the MRF (00z and 12z) as
well as the 12z AVNx offered this solution with out any deviancy from Aug
15 00z to 8/22 without fail.
Therefore IF Debby had become a decent size/strength cane and had affected
Florida and the east coast then it would mean the OPMRF was right and a
better tropical model than the ECMWF. It would show or demonstrate the
OPMRF has skill.
No freakin way.
Disregarding TPC's statement of undeserved praise it showered on the MRF
(and ignoring the 8 "false alarm" tropical cyclones the model has
developed since July 1) ... Not on the MRF's best day is has that model ever
depicted better solutions than the ones posed by the ECMWF and Nogaps. I
cannot recall one instance in the last 10-12 years where the MRF forecast
development and track of a tropical system has been close to be considered
a "hit". Perhaps it has happened but I cannot recall.
The clear loser here is besides the MRF is the GFDL .. which has performed
unbelievably badly. Fantasy Category 4 hurricanes and turns to the North.
Just my opinion. But I hold that the MRF's day after day drum beat that
there was going to be a big event on or off the east coast built in a bias
that colored a lot of forecasters thinking. There may have been a
underpinning towards looking for a turn to the north and significant
intensification... because of the MRF.
DH Tolleris
wxrisk.com
PS Todays AVNX (aug 26) is spinning up ANOTHER tropical storm off the
Florida coast in 96 hrs. That can be seen here:
http://sgi62.wwb.noaa.gov:8080/STATS/maps/avn/latest/f96.gif
My advice is not to hold your breath....
=> Mule Dry Fire Blazes Across Southern Washington
AUGUST 26 -- MABTON, WA: Gov. Gary Locke yesterday recruited over 500
members of the National Guard to help fight a 110,000-acre blaze racing
across southern Washington. "This is a large, fast-moving fire that already
has caused at least $1 million in damage," Locke told the Oregonian. "More
than 600 men and women have been fighting it ... and now we need to give
them help urgently." Low humidity and gusty winds are forecast, and crews
have tried to keep the fire from spreading to the towns of Mabton and
Prosser. Dozer lines are being constructed and black lines burned in, but
with fuel moistures at 3 to 6 percent, low RH, and winds up to 35 mph, the
fire's challenged suppression efforts. It's ripped through wheat stubble and
rotation crops, burning fenceposts, wooden guardrail posts, and power poles.
The Mule Dry Fire, according to the Seattle Times, was named for a creek
that runs through the million-acre Yakama Reservation. The fire has burned
24 structures -- pumphouses, sheds, and a vacant mobile home -- since it
took off Wednesday. Most of the fire is on Yakama Nation land, and crews are
working around culturally sensitive areas. The fire is southwest of the
Hanford fire, which burned 190,000 acres in June.
A red flag warning for gusty winds in excess of 20 mph and dry fuels is
posted today for eastern Washington, according to the Northwest Coordination
Center. Over 600 firefighters and 100 pieces of equipment are on the fire,
and State Fire Services has enroute 14 strike teams, four bulldozers, and
two helicopters. The fire last night was still actively burning on the
southwest and northeast fronts; firefighters today are focusing on the
northeast front and structure protection. Along with a battalion of
personnel, the National Guard will send two CH-47 Chinooks and two UH-60
helicopters tomorrow. Plans include assigning 180 additional Washington DNR
firefighters concurrently with the Guard personnel. More information's
available from the Northwest Coordination Center, and news stories are
online from the Seattle Times and the Oregonian.
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=> Statement By The President The wildfire season this year....
The wildfire season this year is one of the worst our nation has ever
witnessed. We have marshaled our federal resources so that the men and
women fighting these blazes will have the tools they need to safely and
effectively combat the spread of wildfires throughout the United States.
Our federal firefighters and management personnel are working under
extremely dangerous conditions to protect the public and our lands from
the threat of these wildfires.
Today, I am announcing that the Departments of the Interior and
Agriculture, in conjunction with the Office of Personnel Management,
will take immediate steps to make available as many as 2,000 federal
personnel for vital management and supervisory positions to support our
firefighting efforts. Additional managers and supervisors are needed to
ensure additional firefighting crews have the proper supervision and
management support that they need in the field. This action will
immediately authorize individuals working long, stressful hours to be
compensated appropriately. Our nation owes a great debt of gratitude to
these firefighters, managers, and their loved ones who sacrifice their
energy and risk their lives in service to their country. It is our
responsibility, in turn, to do all we can to protect and support them.
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