CESAR Group Advisory 3A >>>>>>>>>>> Proprietary Number CAP-16-0813-00
DATE: 08/18-00
TIME OF ALERT: 1200 EDT 1600 Z
CG TURN TIME: 1 Hour 54 Mins.
CESAR Group CF > 80% 1200 EDT 1600 Z
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CESAR Group Canada Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAP-16-0813-00
is downgrading Alert 2A to an Advisory 3A on a Tropical System to the Lesser
Antilles above +17°N as of 1200 EDT 1600 Z. The CG Team is tracking this
weather area in a northerly direction as our team observed 2100 EDT 0817-00.
It appears from recent imagery that the pathing of this system will begin a
directional change to a more north to north easterly direction within the next
12 -24 Hours. The CG Team repeats its 0930 EDT 1330 Z observations that
surface conditions are conducive to development for CAP 16 but continues to
remain governed by less than desirable atmospheric conditions. Vertical
Shearing continues and a negative divergence area to the north and on a right
axis is also inducing the path of CAP16. All interested parties should monitor
this system carefully and be aware of associated severe weather that may
initiate micro-bursts or other weather anomalies including high winds, heavy
rain, flooding and collateral damage from mud slides. Also, be advised that
sea levels are anomaly high> deviation on model run 0815-00 indicates +4>8mm.
.
1. Present estimated position of Weather Area (+/- 1.2°)=
South Quad 16.8°N> -55.7°W >north Quad 20.01°N> -55.3°W
2. Special Note: Real Time Visible Imagery attached
3. Next ADVISORY: Next advisory if required 1000 EDT 1400 Z 0819-00
4. This ADVISORY is in effect until 1000 EDT 1400 Z 0819-00
5. Next estimated position on a 22 Hour basis> 1200 EDT 1600 Z:
South Quad 19.0°N> -54.0°W >North Quad 22.6°N> -53.4°W
6. Speed in nautical mile (Knots)= 13 Kts Direction northerly
For additional information, emergency preparedness and procedures refer to
You're Caribbean National Emergency Management Agencies, the Local or Regional
Met offices and for tracks and probable landfall refer to NRL Monterey or NAV
Ops Atlantic http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/home1.shtml
THIS NOTICE IS FOR USE AS GUIDANCE ONLY
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End of CESAR Group Alert 2A
CG Patterson
<COFOR>
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