The USA Disaster Situation Report
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For August 14, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
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IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
=> Special Reports
=> Current Atlantic Hurricane Forecast
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
=> Precipitation Forecast and Excessive Rainfall Forecast
=> USA Flood Report
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
=> USA Earthquake Report
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
=> Guest Column
=> Number of wildland fires and acres affected in 2000 by geographic area.
Updated August 14, 2000
=> Military Support in Wildland Fire Suppression 1988 - 1996
=> More than 500 Canadians, Australians, New Zealanders and Mexicans
supporting federal and local firefighters
=> Cospas-Sarsat RESCUE Totals as of 24 July 2000 and Recent Rescues
=> Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 4
=> Classified Ads
=> Links Area
=> How to Be Featured as our Guest Columnist
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SPONSORSHIP SPACE
The Disaster Center
www.disastercenter.com
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=> Subscribe/Unsubscribe information
The Daily USA Disaster Situation Report
For August 14, 2000
Christopher Effgen, Editor, host{at}disastercenter.com
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
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=> USA Daily Temperature Extremes
National Temperature Extremes
High Sun...118 At Death Valley CA
Low Mon...32 At Stanley ID
=> Special Reports
-- A Russian nuclear submarine malfunctioned and became
trapped on the bottom of the Bering Sea on Monday, Russian
authorities said.
http://www.CNN.com
=> Current Atlantic Hurricane Forecast
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded
Tropical Storm Beryl...located about 190 miles south- southeast of
Brownsville Texas...and on recently downgraded tropical storm
alberto...located about 610 miles west of the westernmost Azores Islands.
A tropical wave is located about 600 miles east-northeast of the Leeward
Islands is moving to the west-northwest with no signs of development.
A large tropical wave is located midway between the african coast and the
Lesser Antilles. This system has some potential for slow development as it
moves westward over the next day or two.
=> Current Active National Weather Service Warnings:
Active Warnings:
Updated Mon Aug 14 11:51:16 2000
Flash Flood
Maryland
Virginia
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
IN MARYLAND... INLAND WORCESTER MARYLAND BEACHES INCLUDING OCEAN CITY
SOMERSET DORCHESTER WICOMICO
VIRGINIA... ACCOMACK NORTHAMPTON
Utah
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH EFFECTIVE UNTIL 10 PM MDT MONDAY EVENING FOR PEOPLE IN
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN UTAH WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN
EMERY...SEVIER...WAYNE...GARFIELD... BEAVER...KANE...PIUTE AND IRON REPEAT
THIS IS A WATCH AND NOT A WARNING
Flood
Alaska
AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD WARNING EFFECTIVE UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE
ANCHORAGE AREA. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS FRONT WHICH IS
RESULTING IN STANDING WATER ON THE ROADS AND URBAN FLOODING. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL END BY MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION.
Hurricane/Tropical Storm
United States
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST THU AUG 17 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
37.9N 38.4W 41 X X X 41 37.0N 40.0W 25 1 X 1 27
37.4N 39.1W 36 X X X 36
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Special Marine
Louisiana
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN LAKE CATHERINE/RIGOLETS
LAKE BORGNE CHANDELEUR SOUND * UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
Non Precipitation
Montana
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE TODAY...
Texas
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY FOR DALLAS AND TARRANT COUNTIES...
Severe Thunderstorm
Minnesota
North Dakota
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 1125 AM CDT
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... HUBBARD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 1120 AM CDT
=> Severe Weather Probability Forecast
The forecast probability of an event is by the stated percentage or greater
for the event, within 25 miles of any point for the area described.
Tornado Risk - Slightly Moderate
The 2% probability area covers Minnesota except the far southern and the far
northern areas and northwest Wisconsin
The 5% probability area covers Minnesota except the southern and the
northern areas and northwest Wisconsin
Hail Risk - Slightly Moderate
There is a 5% probability of hail 3/4 inch or larger over eastern North
Dakota, northeast South Dakota, Minnesota, central and northern Wisconsin,
and Michigan's northern peninsula.
The 15% probability area covers far eastern North Dakota, far northeast
South Dakota, Minnesota except the far southern area, north central and
northern Wisconsin, and the western portion of Michigan's northern
peninsula.
The 25% probability area covers central Minnesota east to west, and central
far north west Wisconsin.
Wind Risk - Slightly Moderate
There are two 5% probability areas for winds in excess of 50 knots.
One covers central and southern Florida except the far southern area.
The other covers eastern South and North Dakota, central south, central, and
northeast Nebraska, central north Kansas, the north northwest 1/3 of Iowa,
Minnesota, Wisconsin except the southeast area, and the western portion of
Michigan's northern peninsula.
The 15% probability area covers central east North Dakota, Minnesota except
the far northeastern area and the far southern area, and the northwest 1/2
of Wisconsin.
Tomorrow's Risk - Moderate
The risk area tomorrow covers Michigan except the western areas, far eastern
Indiana, Ohio, northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and
western New York.
=> Precipitation Forecast and Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Precipitation Forecast
The 24 hr precipitation forecast is calling for over an inch of rainfall
over far southern Texas, northeast Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin, southeast
New Jersey, southern and far east Maine, and far southeast New Hampshire.
The 24 - 48 hr Precipitation forecast is calling for over an inch of
rainfall over far southern Texas
Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Flash flood values may be exceeded along coastal areas from New Jersey
through coastal Maine.
=> USA Flood Report
Not Yet Available
=> USA Fire Report and Forecast
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SITUATION REPORT
MONDAY, AUGUST 14, 2000 - 0530 MDT
NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS LEVEL
CURRENT SITUATION:
The Eastern Great Basin, Northern Rockies, Western Great Basin, Southern
California, Rocky Mountain and Southern Areas reported a total of eleven
new large fires. Initial attack activity was moderate in most areas,
except in the Northern Rockies Area where more holdover fires were
discovered. Crews reached containment goals on six large fires. The
forecast is for continued dry weather with gusty winds in Wyoming and
Montana, which will challenge containment efforts there. Very high to
extreme fire indices have been reported in all 11 western states and in
Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota.
A Bell 412 helicopter crashed while conducting water drops on the Twin
Peaks fire in Nevada. The pilot was fatally injured. There were no
passengers on the flight. The entire fire community wishes to extend
condolences to the family and friends of the pilot.
NORTHERN ROCKIES AREA LARGE FIRES:
An Area Command Team (Edrington) is assigned to manage the large fires in
the Hamilton area. An Area Command Team (Mann) is assigned to manage the
large fires in southwestern Montana. An Area Command Team (Meuchel) is
assigned to manage the large fires in central Montana. Priorities are
being established by the Northern Rockies Multi-Agency Coordinating Group
based on information submitted via Wildfire Situation Analysis reports and
Incident Status Summary (ICS-209) forms. BLODGETT TRAILHEAD, Bitterroot
National Forest. A Type I Incident Management Team (Gage) is assigned.
This fire is three miles northwest of Hamilton, MT. The inversion and
smoke is continuing to restrict aerial reconnaissance and suppression
efforts. Uphill runs have been observed in the Canyon Creek drainage. An
estimated 600 homes remain evacuated based on current and expected fire
behavior.
VALLEY COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type I Incident Management
Team (Frye) is assigned. This complex of fires is seven miles south of
Darby, MT. Resources have been pulled off the fireline in the Little
Sleeping Child and East Fork of the Bitterroot areas due to increased fire
activity. The fire is approaching the uppermost structures in the Little
Sleeping Child drainage. At least 800 homes remain evacuated.
SULA COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Corbin) is assigned. The fires in this complex, located near Sula,
MT, include the Maynard, Spade, Slate, Full Circle and Taylor Springs
fires. Fire activity continues to be high, with the wind pushing the fire
through grass and pastures. Torching, crowning and intermediate runs have
been observed on the Maynard and Taylor Springs fires.
WILDERNESS COMPLEX, Bitterroot National Forest. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Cook) is assigned. The complex consists of 24 fires in
the Selway-Bitterroot and Frank Church River of No Return Wildernesses, 40
miles southwest of Hamilton, MT. Fire activity has accelerated on the
Lonely, Hamilton, Thirty, Echo, Fitz and Throng fires. Spotting has
caused some fire growth.
THOMPSON FLAT COMPLEX, Lolo National Forest. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Hoff) is assigned. This is a complex of six fires within
three miles of Superior, MT. The fires south of the highway are in patrol
and mopup status. A defensive strategy has been implemented in the
Johnson Creek area to protect structures and keep the fires within the
confinement area.
RYAN GULCH, Southwestern Land Office, Montana Department of Natural
Resources and Conservation. A Type I Incident Management Team (Melton) is
assigned. This fire is 12 miles southeast of Clinton, MT. The fire
became very active again yesterday afternoon, threatening to jump
containment lines along the west and south flanks. Firefighters were
required to retreat to safe areas. Evacuations remain in effect.
Approximately 65 structures are threatened.
UPPER NINE MILE COMPLEX, Lolo National Forest. A Type I Incident
Management Team (Bennett) is assigned. The Army's 20th Engineers
Battalion from Ft. Hood, Texas, commanded by LTC Shumway, is assigned.
These fires are burning near Huson, MT. Fires included in the complex are
Siegel Pass #7, East Fork Beecher, Pats Creek, Grave Creek, Marion, Big
Blue, Alpine Divide, Lower Blue and South Fork Nemote #4. A burnout
operation is being planned for the eastern flank of the South Fork Nemote
fire. The Marion fire and the Nine Mile fire have nearly burned together.
CLEAR CREEK DIVIDE COMPLEX, Flathead Agency, BIA. A Type I Incident
Management Team (McGregor) is assigned. This complex, 60 miles northwest
of Missoula, consists of the Clear Creek, Vanderburg, Siegel and Magpie
fires. Structure protection is ongoing for residences near the Vanderburg
and Clear Creek fires. The east side of the Vanderburg fire crossed
containment lines and advanced half a mile. Approximately 60 structures
in Paradise, MT are threatened.
CROOKED, Clearwater National Forest. A Type I Incident Management Team
(Hefner) is assigned. The fire is 50 miles southwest of Missoula, MT,
near Lolo Pass. Cloud cover has assisted suppression efforts. Crews
continue to burn out from roads and mop up the fireline successfully.
High winds in the evening are causing problems.
MONTURE/SPREAD RIDGE, Lolo National Forest. A Type I Incident Management
Team (Waterbury) is assigned. This fire is 19 miles east of Seeley Lake,
MT. Firefighters protecting historical cabins in the Bob Marshall
Wilderness have been withdrawn from the area as the fire approaches.
Winds of up to 50 mph are being recorded on Jumbo Lookout.
BOULDER COMPLEX, Central Land Office, Montana Department of Natural
Resources and Conservation. A Type I Incident Management Team (Humphrey)
is assigned. This complex, three miles northeast of Basin, MT, consists
of the Boulder Hill and High Ore Road fires. The evacuation order for
communities adjacent to the complex has been lifted. Fire activity
increased in the afternoon, with torching and spotting within internal
unburned islands observed.
MUSSIGBROD COMPLEX, Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest. A Type II
Incident Management Team (Swope) is assigned. This complex includes the
Mussigbrod and Maynard fires, which are 12 miles northwest of Wisdom, MT.
Both fires exhibited very little spread. Individual and group torching
induced by the steep terrain has been observed.
MIDDLE FORK COMPLEX, Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest. A Type I
Incident Management Team (Carvelho) is assigned. The complex consists of
the Falls Creek, Cougar Creek and Copper Creek fires, 30 miles southwest
of Philipsburg, MT. Fire activity has increased somewhat because of winds
and lower relative humidities.
BURNT FLATS, Clearwater area, Idaho State Department of Lands. A Type II
Incident Management Team (Ostman) is assigned. The fire is three miles
from Whitebird, ID. Crews have secured a fireline in Chapman Creek to
keep the fire from threatening the Yellow Wolf Ranch and Highway 95. The
northeast and eastern edges of the fire are unstaffed. The fire has
doubled in size.
KOOTENAI COMPLEX, Kootenai National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Cowin) is assigned. This complex consists of numerous fires 20
miles northwest of Libby, MT. Priorities are being set for structure
protection.
ELK MOUNTAIN, Northwestern Land Office, Montana Department of Natural
Resources and Conservation. A Type II Incident Management Team (Gauger)
is assigned. This fire is 26 miles west of Whitefish, MT. Holding the
fireline and controlling spots across the fireline have been difficult.
Structure protection planning is in progress for residences downhill from
the fire. The fire has burned into the bottom of the Brush Creek
drainage.
MALONEY CREEK, Clearwater Area, Idaho State Department of Lands. A Type
II Incident Management Team (Specht) is assigned. This fire is 12 miles
southeast of Craigmont, ID. The fire has crossed Deer Creek and is
threatening a powerline which is part of the regional grid. Cabins along
the Salmon River are secure.
JUDITH COMPLEX, Lewis and Clark National Forest. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Szczepanik) is assigned. This complex consists of the
Studhorse, Lost Fork and High Springs fires, which are 25 miles southwest
of Stanford, MT. Very dry fuels and low relative humidities are impeding
containment efforts.
THREE BEARS, Nez Perce National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Cones) is assigned. This fire, 29 miles from Elk City, ID, is
burning actively on both sides of the Salmon River. The nearby Short
Creek fire (1000 acres) is also being managed by the team. Fire activity
has increased with the southwest winds. Site protection measures are
underway at Arctic Circle.
CANYON FERRY COMPLEX, Helena National Forest. This complex, located 12
miles north of Helena, MT, consists of the Bucksnort and Cave Gulch fires.
Fire activity has been minimal. Gusty winds have caused minor spotting,
all within the established firelines.
BEAVER CREEK, Gallatin National Forest. This fire is south of Big Sky,
MT. High winds have pushed the fire three miles from the point of origin.
Extreme fire behavior has resulted in crews being evacuated from the
fireline. US Forest Service and private structures are in the path of the
fire. Voluntary evacuation of some residences in the Taylor Fork area has
occurred.
KNF ABC, Kootenai National Forest. There are 28 staffed fires and
approximately 96 unstaffed fires in this group. All are within the
Kootenai National Forest. BALD MOUNTAIN, Northwestern Land Office,
Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. Fire behavior
is reported to be extreme.
NWLO IA COMPLEX, Northwestern Land Office, Montana Department of Natural
Resources and Conservation. These fires are all within the northwest
Montana zone. Ten fires are included in the complex.
HIDDEN CREEK, Clearwater National Forest. The fire is 12 miles southeast
of Powell, ID. No new information was reported.
SEVEN BLACKFOOT, Miles City Field Office, BLM. This fire is in a
wilderness study area 35 miles northwest of Jordan, MT. Pockets of timber
are torching in the interior. Crews are making good progress with
fireline construction and cold trailing operations.
MCDONALD II, Lewis and Clark National Forest. The fire is 36 miles
southwest of Choteau, MT. No new information was received.
PARKE PEAK, Glacier National Park. This fire was ignited by lightning on
7/23 in the northwest corner of the park. This will be the last report
unless there is significant activity to report.
FROG LAKE, Clearwater National Forest. The fire is 16 miles southeast of
Powell, ID. No new information was received.
HAWKS GROUND, Clearwater Area, Idaho State Department of Lands. The fire
is burning in steep terrain four miles northeast of Winchester, ID. No
new information was received.
ELIZABETH, Clearwater National Forest. The fire is 33 miles northeast of
Pierce, ID. No new information was received.
SNOW CREEK, Clearwater National Forest. The fire is 30 miles northeast of
Pierce, ID. No new information was received.
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AREA LARGE FIRES:
Priorities are being established by the Great Basin Multi-Agency
Coordinating Group based on information submitted via Wildfire Situation
Analysis reports and Incident Status Summary (ICS-209) forms.
RANKIN, Salmon-Challis National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Suwyn) is assigned. A Type I Incident Management Team (Stam) has
been ordered. This fire is 40 miles west of Challis, ID. Major problems
and concerns are with historical, private and commercial property adjacent
to the fire in the Yankee Fork drainage and additional private property
along the Salmon River. Retardant drops were used to slow the fires
spread down slope in upper Blind Creek, less than two miles above the town
of Sunbeam.
ELK VALLEY, Caribou National Forest. This lightning-caused fire is 20
miles northeast of Montpelier, ID. Successful burnout operations have
been completed.
BOULDER, Bridger-Teton National Forest. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Zimmerman) is assigned. This fire is 15 miles east of Jackson, WY,
in the Gros Ventre Wilderness. Dry, hot and windy conditions caused
active torching on the perimeter and interior of the fire. Fire activity
continues to test the west portion's containment lines. The fire has
backed into Little Granite Creek in several areas. Spotting has not
created any new problem areas.
BURGDORF JUNCTION, Payette National Forest. A Type I Incident Management
Team (Vail) is assigned. A Type I Incident Management Team (Dague) has
been assigned to transition with Vail's team. The fire is 23 miles north
of McCall, ID. The 3rd Battalion 16th Field Artillery from Ft. Hood,
Texas, commanded by LTC Darryl Williams, is assigned. Fifty-nine
personnel from the Idaho National Guard and 24 personnel from the 116th
Calvary are providing the military with air and medical support and four
Blackhawk helicopters.
CLEAR CREEK, Salmon-Challis National Forest. Two Type I Incident
Management Teams (Hart and Bateman) are assigned. The fire is 12 miles
west of Salmon, ID. The 3rd Battalion 5th Marines from Camp Pendleton,
California, commanded by Col. Callihan, is assigned. The fire in Pine
Gulch has potential to grow to the south. Fuels reduction along the
Salmon River Ridge road is at an accelerated pace with the arrival of
large pieces of logging equipment. This is to support preparation of the
contingency line above the town of Salmon and its watershed.
SWAINS, South Central State of Utah. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Burdick) has been ordered and will transition this evening. This human-
caused fire is burning east of Holden, UT. Extreme fire conditions were
observed with crowning and 200-foot flame lengths. Structures and
wildlife habitats remain threatened.
MORSE, Salmon-Challis National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Suwyn) has been ordered. The fire is burning in grass, sagebrush, and
Douglas Fir 12 miles southeast of Ellis, ID. Resources threatened are one
Forest Service campground. Actions planned for today are to monitor and
hold the fireline north of Morse Creek drainage and east of Tater Creek.
HALF MOON, Bridger-Teton National Forest. This fire is near Pinedale, WY.
The fire had significant growth yesterday and is currently threatening the
Half Moon Lodge. The Sweeney Creek Trail area was evacuated yesterday and
other areas are currently being evaluated. Air support was used yesterday
to hold the west flank of the fire.
NICK, Payette National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Saleen) has been ordered. This fire is burning in subalpine fir 12 miles
east of McCall, ID.
DRY FORK II, Vernal Field Office, BLM. The fire is burning in pinyon
pine, juniper, aspen, fir and lodgepole pine 20 miles northwest of Vernal,
UT. The east side of the fire is inaccessible by personnel and engines.
Fire behavior has been unaffected by nightfall.
ENOS, Bridger-Teton National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Zimmerman) has been assigned to manage this fire. This fire is burning
in the Teton Wilderness 33 miles northeast of Jackson, WY. Firefighters
successfully completed structure protection around the Enos Lake patrol
cabin.
FLOSSIE COMPLEX, Payette National Forest. This fire is 50 miles northeast
of McCall, ID. The threat to structures at Chamberlain and Stonebreaker
Ranch has passed.
NORTH FORK WILDERNESS COMPLEX, Salmon/Challis National Forest. The ten
fires in this complex, including the Butts and Filly fires, are 40 miles
northwest of Salmon, ID. Growth potential is extreme due to limited
access, steep rugged terrain and dry fuels at high elevations. The fires
were active yesterday and all made major runs.
POINT/LOOKOUT, Payette National Forest. The fire is 51 miles east of
McCall, ID. Three outbuildings were destroyed yesterday. Structure
protection is being provided for the rest of the structures.
SOUTH ZONE WILDERNESS, Salmon-Challis National Forest. This fire is 50
miles northwest of Challis, ID. This fire is being monitored for fire
growth and behavior.
TRIANGLE, Bridger-Teton National Forest. This fire is burning near
Pinedale, WY. The fire is currently not staffed and is burning to the
east in the Wind River Range.
DIAMOND PEAK, Payette National Forest. This lightning-caused fire is 42
miles northeast of McCall, ID. The fire made a large run towards the
northeast yesterday evening. Resources threatened include two historical
buildings.
INDIAN/PROSPECT, Payette National Forest. The fire is 33 miles east of
McCall, ID. The private vehicle trapped behind fireline earlier has been
retrieved. The fire is moving towards the Stibnite Mine which has been
evacuated. The fire is being monitored by air.
WESTERN GREAT BASIN AREA LARGE FIRES:
SOUTH WILLOW, Winnemucca Field Office, BLM. The fire is burning in
sagebrush, grass and juniper 60 miles west of Winnemucca, NV. Current
threats are to grazing lands and mine shacks.
O'NEIL BASIN COMPLEX, Elko Field Office, BLM. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Murphy) is assigned. This complex, consisting of the
Camp Creek, Cold Springs and Mahogany fires, is 40 miles southeast of
Jackpot, NV. Unburned fuels are still smoldering in the interior of the
Camp Creek fire. Crews will continue with mopup today. Some
demobilization is occurring.
TWIN PEAKS, Carson City Field Office, BLM. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Praytor) is assigned. This fire is burning in pinyon pine and
juniper 50 miles east of Fallon, NV. The fire's forward progress has
slowed. Torching continues on islands within the perimeter. Some
progress has been made toward containment, despite extremely dry fuels and
difficult terrain. Several ranches in the area remain threatened.
RABBIT, Elko Field Office, BLM. The fire is burning in pinyon pine,
juniper, sagebrush and grass 60 miles southeast of Elko, NV. Torching
trees have been observed near the fire's perimeter and within unburned
islands. Current threats are to wildlife habitat, grazing and cultural
resources.
WHISKEY, Battle Mountain Field Office, BLM. This fire is burning through
pinyon pine, juniper and sage fuels 15 miles south of Battle Mountain, NV.
Fire activity during the past 24 hours has been low. Limited access,
steep terrain and very dry fuels are challenging containment efforts.
Wildlife habitat, livestock and grazing lands are threatened.
CHOKE CHERRY, Elko Field Office, BLM. This fire is 14 miles east of
Jackpot, NV. The fire is burning in pinion pine, juniper, sagebrush and
grass. Crews are making good progress constructing fireline and cold
trailing. Some interior torching has been observed.
PARSNIP, Ely Field Office, BLM. This fire is burning in sagebrush, dense
pinyon pine and juniper 30 miles northeast of Caliente, NV in a wilderness
study area. Dozer lines are being built around structures. Moderate fire
behavior has been reported, with some torching and a slight acreage gain.
PHILLIPS RANCH, Humboldt-Toiyabe National Forest. The fire is 50 miles
southeast of Ely, NV. USFS personnel are monitoring the fire. Torching
and up-drainage runs have been observed in timber stands on the north and
south ends.
CHERRY, Ely Field Office, BLM. This fire is 30 miles northwest of Ely,
NV. Due to its inaccessibility, the fire is being monitored by BLM
personnel.
RIGHT HAND, Carson City Field Office, BLM. This fire is burning in pinyon
pine and juniper 25 miles northeast of Reno, NV. No significant fire
activity has been observed in the past 24 hours. Engines and a crew
continue to work toward containment.
MAMMOTH, Humboldt-Toiyabe National Forest. The fire is burning in white
fir 75 miles southwest of Ely, NV. It started on 8/2 in the Grant Range
Wilderness Area. On 8/11 grew to its present size due to strong gusty
winds. Current threats are to summer and winter wildlife habitat and
sensitive plant species.
ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA LARGE FIRES:
FLAGPOLE MOUNTAIN, South Dakota State Forestry. A Type II Incident
Management Team (Gardner) is assigned. This fire is near the town of Hot
Springs, SD. Wind shifts and steep terrain continue to deter containment
efforts. One residence and three outbuildings have been destroyed. The
fire is threatening numerous other residences.
KATE'S BASIN COMPLEX, Wind River Agency, BIA. A Type I Incident
Management Team (Lohrey) is assigned. This complex includes the Kate's
Basin and the Blondie #2 fires, eight miles southwest of Thermopolis, WY.
High winds, high temperatures and low relative humidities are combining to
keep the fires very active. The Blondie #2 fire continues to spread.
SHEEP MOUNTAIN, Rock Springs District, BLM. A Type II Incident Management
Team (Carlson) is assigned. This lightning-caused fire is near Rock
Springs, WY. The fire has made several runs, pushed by strong shifting
winds. A major powerline is threatened. Highway 191 has been closed from
Utah to Rock Springs.
BLACKHALL, Rawlins District, BLM. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Hartman) is assigned. This fire is four miles southeast of Encampment,
WY. Strong winds have caused the fire to spot across containment lines.
The fire is threatening two structures to the north. Very dry conditions
and winds have challenged fire containment efforts.
HOGBACK, Craig Dispatch Center Counties. This fire is five miles south of
Meeker, CO. The fire received long duration rain. Most resources have
been released and the fire will be in patrol status for the next few days.
HELL'S CANYON, Rawlins District, BLM. This fire is 50 miles south of
Rawlins, WY. The fire is reported to be running, torching, crowning and
spotting in rugged terrain with minimal access.
NORTHWEST AREA LARGE FIRES:
BUFFALO LAKE, Colville Agency, BIA. A Type II Incident Management Team
(Furlong) is assigned. This fire is burning in grass, sagebrush, timber
and slash four miles northeast of Coulee Dam, WA. Crews continuing to
progress toward containment. A burnout operation is underway along the
east flank of the fire.
WHITE ELEPHANT RANCH, Prineville District, BLM. This fire is made up of
two lightning-caused fires 15 miles east of Grass Valley, OR that burned
together. Containment was expected late last night.
FLAT CREEK, Wenatchee National Forest. This lightning-caused fire is 18
miles northwest of Stehekin, WA, in the Glacier Peak Wilderness.
Monitoring by agency personnel from a viewpoint and by helicopter is
continuing.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA LARGE FIRES:
HIGHWAY, Fresno-Kings Ranger Unit, California Department of Forestry.
This human-caused fire is 28 miles northeast of Fresno, CA. The town of
Auberry has been evacuated and structures are threatened. Highway 168 has
been closed.
SAWMILL, Inyo National Forest. The fire, near Independence, CA, was
ignited on 8/5 by lightning. Steep terrain is slowing containment
efforts.
SOUTHWEST AREA LARGE FIRES:
PEAK, Tonto National Forest. A Type II Incident Management Team (Joki) is
assigned. The fire is burning in dense brush and steep terrain six miles
south of Globe, AZ. The fire received over 2.5 inches of rain and hail
yesterday afternoon. Large scale rehabilitation efforts are underway.
BELL, Las Vegas District, New Mexico State Forestry. This
lightning-caused fire was ignited on 8/7. It is burning in pinyon pine,
juniper and grass 30 miles northwest of Tucumcari, NM. No new information
was received.
RATTLESNAKE, Prescott National Forest. The fire was ignited on 8/7 near
Black Canyon City, AZ. The fire is burning in a canyon with limited
access in the Castle Creek Wilderness. The fire is being monitored by
USFS personnel.
SOUTHERN AREA LARGE FIRES:
FIELD'S CHAPEL, Texas State Forest Service. This fire is 80 miles
southeast of Dallas, TX. More than 20 structures have been saved. High
winds and spotting are making containment difficult. National Guard
Blackhawk helicopters are assisting.
HARRELL GULLY, Texas State Forest Service. The fire is burning in a pine
plantation 64 miles southeast of Lufkin, TX. Containment was expected
last night.
BOHANNAN ROAD, Texas State Forest Service. The fire is burning in a pine
plantation 30 miles northeast of Houston, TX. Containment was expected
last night.
OUTLOOK:
*** A RED FLAG WARNING IS POSTED IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ***
*** A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ***
Weak upper level disturbances will continue to move into the west coast,
bringing seasonal temperatures to the Pacific northwest, Great Basin, and
northern Rockies. This will also bring locally breezy conditions to
portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies, but there is no chance
of precipitation. Monsoonal moisture and a chance of thunderstorms
continues across the southwest region, as high pressure extends from the
four corners area to southern California.
High temperatures will range from the mid 70's to the mid 90's in most
areas and up to 110 in the deserts of western Utah, northern Arizona and
southern Nevada. Up to 115 degree temperatures will occur across the
southern California and Arizona desert areas.
Afternoon relative humidities will range from the low teens to upper 20's
in most areas, except drier in the hottest deserts. Northwest to
southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusty can be expected across portions
of the north. Elsewhere, diurnal winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected.
A fire weather watch is posted in portions of northern Florida for low
relative humidities.
=> USA Earthquake Report
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER
GOLDEN, COLORADO
LISTS OF U.S. EARTHQUAKES IN THE LAST 30 HOURS
Prepared by USGS/NEIC 2000 AUG 14 at 00:15 UTC
EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
(29.0 TO 35.8 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 AUG 13 19:46:44.00 34.7 N 116.3 W 0 km 3.1
40 miles NNW of Twentynine Palms, California
EARTHQUAKES IN NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
(40.3 TO 50.0 N, 102.0 TO 125.0 W)
Date Time (UTC) Lat Long Depth Magnitude
2000 AUG 13 18:17:48.00 40.4 N 124.5 W 16 km 4.0
35 miles SSW of Eureka, California
=> Yesterday's USA Severe Weather Reports
Note: All data is considered preliminary
Tornado Reports
Time F-Scale Location County State Lat Lon Comments
0553 UNK 2 SE MILTON CAVALIER ND 4860 9801 COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED BRIEF
TOUCHDOWN WITH BARN DESTROYED AND ROOF TORN OFF OF SHOP (FAR)
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1650 75 10 N CALVIN CAVALIER ND 4901 9891 (FAR)
1814 88 YOUNGSVILLE FRANKLIN NC 3603 7848 SPOTTER REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL
NEAR YOUNGSVILLE (RDU)
1815 175 WHITE LAKE BLADEN NC 3464 7850 PUBLIC REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
(ILM)
1815 75 COMFORT JONES NC 3500 7750 REPORTED BY 911 (MHX)
1840 100 WINTERVILLE PITT NC 3553 7741 REPORTED BY 911 (MHX)
1853 88 SHOTWELL WAKE NC 3573 7844 SPOTTER REPORTED DIME TO NICKLE SIZE HAIL
ALONG SHOTWELL ROAD (RDU)
2245 75 SIGNAL GILA AZ 3446 11363 DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY NATIONAL
FOREST SERVICE FIREFIGHTERS AT PEAK FIRE (PHX)
2310 200 5 W MAYWOOD FRONTIER NE 4066 10072 (LBF)
2314 100 6 E WELLFLEET LINCOLN NE 4074 10060 (LBF)
2318 75 5 WSW REAGER NORTON KS 3980 10019 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (GLD)
2318 75 2 S NORCATUR DECATUR KS 3979 10018 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (GLD)
2330 88 NORTH PLATTE LINCOLN NE 4115 10078 (LBF)
2340 88 5 S BARNES WASHINGTON KS 3963 9686 NICKLE SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN
OCCURRING FOR TEN MINUTES (TOP)
2346 100 3 W MAYWOOD FRONTIER NE 4066 10068 (LBF)
2347 125 5 W STAPLETON LOGAN NE 4148 10062 (LBF)
2350 75 CASTLE ROCK LINCOLN CO 3936 10486 (DEN)
0005 88 DOVER SHAWNEE KS 3896 9593 (TOP)
0015 75 2 S WELLFLEET LINCOLN NE 4071 10073 (LBF)
0102 100 ESKRIDGE WABAUNSEE KS 3884 9609 (TOP)
0121 75 2 W HARVEYVILLE WABAUNSEE KS 3878 9600 REPORTED BY SHERIFF AND
SPOTTER ON HWY 31. (TOP)
0132 100 2 N ROSEGLEN MCLEAN ND 4778 10183 DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
REPORTED BY COOPERATIVE OBSERVER. (BIS)
0205 100 7 N DICKINSON STARK ND 4699 10278 3/4 TO 1 INCH HAIL REPORTED BY
PUBLIC. (BIS)
0234 88 3 SW OLSBURG POTTAWATOMIE KS 3939 9666 (TOP)
0255 75 7 NW MANHATTAN RILEY KS 3934 9673 (TOP)
0302 88 2 SW OLSBURG POTTAWATOMIE KS 3940 9664 (TOP)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2200 UNK 1 W BELVUE POTTAWATOMIE KS 3921 9618 TREE LIMBS DOWN. REPORTED BY
RURAL RESIDENT. (TOP)
2215 UNK ST MARYS POTTAWATOMIE KS 3919 9606 IN ST MARYS A SEMITRAILER WAS
OVERTURNED, LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES WERE DOWN AND A CONCESSION STAND AT
THE STADIUM WAS ROLLED AND DESTROYED. BUSINESSES (TOP)
2248 UNK 4 E BELVUE POTTAWATOMIE KS 3921 9608 TREES AND POWER POLES DOWN
ALONG HWY 24. REPORTED BY SHERIFF. (TOP)
2255 UNK VAIL AZ 3204 11071 SEVERAL MOBILE HOME TRAILER OFF FOUNDATION (TUS)
2322 UNK 1 W HARVEYVILLE WABAUNSEE KS 3878 9598 POWER LINES ARE DOWN ON 31
HWY (TOP)
2350 UNK MYRTLE BEACH HORRY SC 3369 7888 LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ACROSS KINGS
HIGHWAY (ILM)
2350 UNK TUCSON AZ 3223 11093 POWER LINES DOWN ON SOUTH S TUCSON (TUS)
2237 60 3 NW ROSSVILLE SHAWNEE KS 3916 9599 REPORTED BY SHERIFF. (TOP)
2305 60 3 W MAPLE HILL WABAUNSEE KS 3908 9609 CAMPER SHELL BLOWN OFF PICKUP
TRUCK TREE LIMBS DOWN POWER OUTAGE (TOP)
2318 65 2 S NORCATUR DECATUR KS 3979 10018 (GLD)
2318 60 5 WSW REAGER NORTON KS 3980 10019 PATIO FURNITURE BLOWN OFF PORCH.
ALSO...1 TO 2 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN. REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (GLD)
0006 UNK AUBURN SHAWNEE KS 3890 9581 TREE LIMBS DOWN IN AUBURN. REPORTED BY
SPOTTER. (TOP)
0100 UNK 3 S AUBURN SHAWNEE KS 3885 9581 VACANT TRAILER HOME WAS ROLLED AND
DESTROYED (TOP)
0101 UNK 7 N BURLINGAME OSAGE KS 3886 9583 POWERPOLE WAS SNAPPED ABOVE
GROUND LOCATED AT HOCH RD BETWEEN 117TH AND 125TH STS. (TOP)
0122 UNK 1 W HARVEYVILLE WABAUNSEE KS 3878 9598 POWER LINES ARE DOWN ON 31
HWY (TOP)
0253 UNK MARICOPA PINAL AZ 3206 11204 POWER LINES DOWN ON SEMI TRUCK
REPORTED BY S.O. (PHX)
0006 60 AUBURN SHAWNEE KS 3890 9581 REPORTED BY A TRAINED SPOTTER. (TOP)
0022 60 TOPEKA SHAWNEE KS 3904 9568 (TOP)
0025 60 AUBURN SHAWNEE KS 3890 9581 (TOP)
0045 60 WAMEGO POTTAWATOMIE KS 3919 9631 AT 1655 TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN
WAMEGO CITY PARK WITH DIAMETER OF 4 TO 6 INCHS AND TWO HOMES IN THAT AREA
SUSTAIN ROOF DAMAGE. (TOP)
0234 65 3 SW OLSBURG POTTAWATOMIE KS 3939 9666 (TOP)
Fields marked UNK are unknown
All Times UTC
Wind Gusts in MPH
Hail Sizes in 1/100 of an Inch (75 = 0.75")
=> Guest Column
No Column Today
=> Number of wildland fires and acres affected in 2000 by geographic area.
Updated August 14, 2000
Geographic Area Number of Wildfires Number of Acres
Alaska Wildfires 345 Number of Acres 751,233
Northwest (OR, WA) Wildfires 1,932 Number of Acres 473,360
California (northern) Wildfires 2,213 Number of Acres 19,715
California (southern) Wildfires 2,717 Number of Acres 129,068
Northern Rockies (northern ID, MT, ND) Wildfires 3,074 Number of Acres
495,950
Eastern Great Basin (southern ID, UT, western WY) Wildfires 2,035 Number of
Acres 815,827
Western Great Basin (NV) Wildfires 827 Number of Acres 529,437
Southwest (AZ, NM, west Texas, panhandle of OK) Wildfires 4,628 Number of
Acres 525,884
Rocky Mountain (WY, CO, SD, NB, KS) 2,636 Number of Acres 275,061
Eastern (MN, IA, MO, WI, IL, IN, MI, OH, WV, PA, NY, MD, NJ, DE, CT, MA, VT,
NH, RI, ME) Wildfires 10,518 Number of Acres 114,543
Southern (OK, eastern TX, AR, LA, MS, TN, KY, VA, NC, SC, GA, AL, FL)
Wildfires 35,198 Number of Acres 675,754
Total United States Wildfires 66,123 Number of Acres 4,805,832
Ten-Year Average Wildfires 56,242 Number of Acres 2,415,704
=> Military Support in Wildland Fire Suppression 1988 - 1996
1996
Eight C-130 aircraft were converted to airtankers to assist firefighting
efforts in northern California.
An Army battalion from Fort Carson, Colorado, and a Marine battalion from
Camp Pendleton, California, also assisted with firefighting efforts.
1994
Seven military battalions were activated to assist during the season for a
total of nearly 5,000 military personnel to help bolster the civilian
forces. The battalions included:
Two Marine battalions from Camp Pendleton, California
Five Army battalions; two from Ft. Hood, Texas, two from Ft. Lewis,
Washington, and one from Ft. Riley, Kansas
Eight C-130 aircraft were converted to airtankers to assist firefighting
efforts in Idaho, Washington and Montana.
1990
Four Army battalions, two from Ft. Lewis, Washington, and two from Ft.
Carson, Colorado, assisted wildland firefighting efforts in Oregon and
California, along with,
Eight C-130 aircraft were converted to airtankers to assist firefighting
efforts in southern California.
1989
Four Army battalions, two from Ft. Lewis, Washington, one from Ft. Carson,
Colorado, and one from Ft. Riley, Kansas, worked on wildland fires in Idaho
and Oregon, along with,
19 Helicopters from Ft. Campbell, and
Eight C-130 aircraft converted to airtankers to assist firefighting efforts
in Arizona and California.
1988
Six Army battalions and two Marine battalions assisted with firefighting
efforts during the notorious Yellowstone fires, along with:
57 helicopters, including two OV-10 Mohawks used with infrared scanners, and
Eight C-130 aircraft converted to airtankers.
National Interagency Fire Center Receives International Assistance to Combat
Wildland Fires
=> More than 500 Canadians, Australians, New Zealanders and Mexicans have
been supporting federal and local firefighters in several western states to
suppress fires and support public safety.
Federal officials at the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) in Boise,
Idaho, have requested assistance in the form of firefighting crews, incident
management teams, equipment, aircraft and supplies from four countries to
help contain and control wildfires throughout the west.
"NIFC has longstanding agreements with foreign countries," said Tom Frey,
International Program Coordinator for the National Interagency Fire Center.
"Agreements with these governments have been in place so we can access
support at times like these." According to Frey, each of these countries has
prior knowledge of our systems, personnel experienced in wildfire
suppression, no significant language barriers, and capabilities.
"These are mutually beneficial agreements," said Frey. "Just last year, the
U.S. assisted Canada with more than 800 wildland firefighters. We also
provided technical assistance, supplies and equipment in 1998 to help Mexico
with fires related to the El Nino drought."
"Our experienced, front line fire managers are trained in all aspects of
wildland firefighting," said Serge Poulin, Canadian Liaison to NIFC, "so we
can ensure a safe and productive mission." "We've provided support to the
U.S. for well over a decade and feel quite comfortable providing strike team
leaders, division group supervisors, dozer bosses, task force leaders as
well as aircraft and equipment."
Wildland managers from Australia and New Zealand arrived late yesterday in
Boise and will be trained at NIFC in the use of fire shelters and assigned
personal protective equipment. They will also receive an in-depth safety
orientation and briefings on the Incident Command System and the command and
control structure used for firefighting.
After completing orientation, Australian and New Zealand fire managers will
begin filling strike team leader and supervisory positions throughout the
Northern Rockies area as early as Monday.
=> Cospas-Sarsat RESCUE Totals as of 24 July 2000 and recent Rescues
Worldwide - 11,3411 lives
United States - 4,081 lives
During 2000, the United States has recorded 123 Cospas-Sarsat rescues
During 1999, the United States recorded 309 Cospas-Sarsat rescues
During 1998, the United States recorded 256 Cospas-Sarsat rescues
July - September 2000
On July 22, 2000, the COSPAS SARSAT SYSTEM detected a 406 MHz EPIRB distress
signal SE of the Gulf of Alaska. The EPIRB was manually activated after the
S/V "Spirit of Kwantlanl" had engine problems and began taking on water. The
beacon was a loaner for the voyage from Seward to Canada.
THREE SARSAT RESCUES.
On July 17, 2000, the Cospas-Sarsat system detected a 406 MHz EPIRB distress
signal SE of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Atlantic Area Rescue Coordination Center
reported the S/V "PM Charles", which was in a transatlantic race from Nova
Scotia to France, had manually activated its EPIRB after taking on water.
Atlantic area RCC sent the Amver vessel "Sanmar Pageant" and launched a
C-130 from ST. John's, Newfoundland for assistance. The crew of two were
transferred to the "Sanmar Pageant" and the EPIRB was silenced.
TWO SARSAT RESCUES.
On July 16, 2000, the Cospas-Sarsat system detected a 406 MHz distress
signal south of Ponape, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). The Mariana
Island Sector-Guam RCC (MARSEC RCC) received a 406 MHz alert, when the F/V
"Molkil" manually activated the EPIRB due to loss of power and
communication; they were adrift. The owner was contacted and stated the
EPIRB belongs to the "Gray Feather 9" but it was on loan to the F/V
"Molkil", that also belongs to the same owner. A USAF C-130 was diverted
from AAFB Guam and dropped a radio to establish COMMS. The F/V "Nomsepei"
arrived on scene and relieved the USAF C-130; the owner has two vessels
enroute to relieve the F/V "Nomsepei". The F/V "Nomsepei" will attempt to
recharge the F/V "Molkil" batteries for power and communications.
EIGHT SARSAT RESCUES.
On July 10, 2000, the Cospas-Sarsat System detected a 406 MHz distress
signal SE of Freeport, TX. The F/V "Big Fred" became disabled due to
electrical problems and the master was forced to manually activate his
EPIRB. CGD 8 launched a helicopter which arrived on scene. They requested a
nearby vessel to attempt to jump start the "Big Fred", but with no success.
Commercial assistance was called. The vessel and crew were confirmed safe
and well, awaiting commercial salvage assistance.
THREE SARSAT RESCUES.
On July 6, 2000, the COSPAS-SARSAT system detected a 406 MHz EPIRB distress
signal northeast of Oahu, HI. The master of the S/V "SPACE COWBOY" manually
activated his 406 MHz EPIRB after abandoning the vessel due to threatening
calls about possible explosives aboard. CGD14 RCC launched a Coast Guard
C-130 aircraft which located the life raft and the USS "Ingraham" recovered
the owner from the life raft .
ONE SARSAT RESCUE.
On July 4, 2000, the Cospas Sarsat System detected a 406 MHz distress signal
southwest of Barrow, Alaska. A member of an expedition group was forced to
manually activate his PLB after his colleague sustained injuries during a
Snow Mobile accident. North Slope SAR launched a Bell 214ST helicopter and
was able to locate the group shortly afterwards. The North Slope SAR team
transported the injured person back to Barrow where he was treated at the
hospital and released.
ONE SARSAT RESCUE.
On July 3, 2000, the COSPAS-SARSAT system detected a 406 MHz EPIRB distress
signal north of Luperon, Dominican Republic. CGD7 RCC launched a HH-60
helicopter to the area where they located a life raft containing three
survivors from the F/V "BAY WOLF", which began taking on water and sank. The
three survivors were hoisted aboard the helicopter, taken into port where
they received shelter and were later transported to Bahamian Customs and
Immigration in Matthewtown.
THREE SARSAT RESCUES.
=> Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 4
National Weather Service Miami Fl
11 Am EDT Mon. Aug. 14 2000
An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft found flight- level winds
of 53 kt in the southeast quadrant and the depression is upgraded to
Tropical Storm Beryl with this advisory. They also found a center of
circulation had reformed to the west of the previous track. The initial
motion is still thought to be 310/5...but we should have a better handle on
this later in the afternoon. Model guidance is in pretty good agreement on a
northwesterly track...the uncertainty is mainly with the speed.
There has been an abundance of deep convection this morning...and with the
current development trend we are forecasting hurricane strength in 24 hours.
This in spite of northwesterly shear evident on water vapor imagery. The
system did pass over an area of unusually high heat content this morning
that may have been involved with the sudden strengthening.
Forecaster Franklin
Forecast Positions And Max Winds
INITIAL 14/1500Z 23.6N 95.8W 45 KTS
12HR VT 15/0000Z 24.1N 96.4W 55 KTS
24HR VT 15/1200Z 24.7N 97.3W 65 KTS
36HR VT 16/0000Z 25.6N 98.3W 50 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 16/1200Z 26.5N 99.5W 35 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 17/1200Z 28.0N 103.5W 25 KTS...INLAND
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=> Links Area
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