NAVOPS/NRL ATLANTIC INVESTIGATION: 91L Reinstated now 92L 072800
____________________________________________________________________
CESAR Group Watch Area Investigation: CAP-12-0726-00 CENTERED 12.9°N > -28.5°W
{at} 1513 EDT 1913 Z
CAI = CESAR Group Investigation
CAP= CESAR Group Proprietary (In House Observations)
______________________________________________________________________
CESAR Group Advisory 3>>>>>>>>>>> Proprietary Number CAP-12-0726-00 >
DATE: 07/28/00
TIME OF ADVISORY: 1200 EDT 1600 Z
CGTURN TIME: 3 h 01 min from original notification time - Validation Required
CESAR Group CF > 70% 0702800 1501 EDT 1901 Z
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CESAR Group Canada Watch Area Proprietary Investigation: CAP-12-0726-00 >
and is now issuing an advisory on this system to the Northern Lesser Antilles
14.5°N. All interested parties should monitor this system for further
development. Regardless, until an in field reconnaissance is conducted on this
weather system it's structure will remain open-ended.
NEW FORMAT FOR INVESTIGATION OF WEATHER AREA
FULL ADVISORIES ONLY WHEN NAMED STORM DEVELOPS
LIST OF INDICES, SPECIAL NOTES ONLY WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY
SPECIAL NOTE: The US NAVAL MET OPS has officially reinstated its investigation
on 91L now 92L and the CESAR Group continues to monitor this weather system.
Recent mid to upper visible wind imagery {at} 1500Z continues to indicate a good
inflow of low pressure systems from the south on a defined area to
approximately 6.5°N33°W however, this area the CG Team now considers a feeder
band similar but not as well developed as those of Floyd and Dennis (1999) A
recent scan of all model runs AVN 072800Z, is continuing its position of an
organized system and pathing in a westerly direction. ECMFW 072800Z is in
disagreement, but the wind shear run is in agreement with all models that
there is a conducive environment for a westerly track of this system. NOGAPS
disagrees with the AVN but is vacillating in hourly segments to an organized
system, but in part agrees with a westerly track. The UK MET recent model run
is contaminated therefore no analysis has been recorded. The AVN and NOGAPS
model runs performed well during the 1999 season and a high confidence factor
and forecasting skill was realized by our Canadian and Caribbean team. Imagery
attached
<COFOR>
DATA of Indices {as per our modelling schema} as of 07/28/00 Data extrapolated
from surface and imagery (Vis/IR) analysis of CG Team's Central Position or
with in an approximate radius of 120 Nautical Miles.
Position as of 0728 1200 EDT 1600Z >15°62N>31.13°W
1) Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies = -0.5C° + 1.0°C
2) Sea Surface Temperatures = 27.5°C>28°C
3) Precipitation in Central Quad = .6>1 inch per hour
4) Precipitation South Quad (In Flow-Feeder Band)= .6 inches per hour
5) Wind divergence = Positive >5>10
6) Vertical wind shear = Less Conducive to Conducive weakening 5-10Kts.
7) Sea level pressure = 1000-1008 Mb
8) Surface Winds (MA)= 12.5 Kts
9) Mid Level Winds (MA) = 18.5 Kts
10) High Level Winds (MA) = 32 Kts
11) Speed in Nautical Miles = 8.1 Kts
12) Sea Wave Heights = 3-6ft westerly
13) Sea Level = +12mm
14) Current Flow Influence = North Equatorial Current
15) Topography of Birth Area = Gambia Basin +1500
16) Julian-Madden Oscillation = NA
17) La Nina/El Nino = -0.5°C> -0.75°C Weak
18) Southern Oscillation or ENSO = -0.90 Steady decline factored on a 0
baseline (-)(+) 90 day average
19) STLCF= +2.5 Low
20) Moon = Moving into Apogee > next moon August day 15, 01:14 2000
21) ITCZ Axis = 8N13W-12N20W- (6N35W) -9N46W - 6N58W.>Position 300>360Nautical
Miles from ITCZ influence
22) Global Earth Quakes = +5M
23) Solar Class Eruption > Shock Wave at 0230 hrs struck earth's
magnetosphere-minor geomagnetic storm affected parts Europe and Asia.
<COFOR>
____________________________________________________________________
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