[STORMREPORTS] SLIGHT RISK For Part Of East Coast Today

From: Jesse Ferrell (CASI) (j{at}weatherwatchers.org)
Date: Wed May 24 2000 - 07:50:00 EDT

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The Moderate Risk has been reduced to a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms for an area from Oklahoma to Mass. today.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

>From the NWS for the CASI HQ area:
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/pa/discussion.html

               CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
               NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
               320 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2000

               EARLIER MODERATE RISK HAS NOW BEEN REPLACED BY SLIGHT
RISK OVER MOST
               OF CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY DUE TO IMPRESSIVE
VERTICAL WIND
               SHEAR. LIMITING FACTOR FOR TODAY WILL BE DECREASING
UPWARD VERTICAL
               MOTION AS NEGATIVE PV ADVECTION DOMINATES THE ATMOSPHERE
FOR MUCH OF
               THE DAY AND SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE
AS SURFACE
               DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST FLOW CAN
BE VERY
               TRICKY HOWEVER AND WILL NOT UNDERESTIMATE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WILL
               OPT TO KEEP GUSTY WIND AND HAIL WORDING IN FORECASTS BUT
WILL
               SIGNIFICANTLY CUT POPS TO A MORE REASONABLE 40-50 PERCENT
(50 ALONG
               THE NORTHERN TIER WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF
               INTENSE 120+ KT 250 MB JET THIS AFTERNOON). THIS IN LINE
WITH MOS
               GUIDANCE...BUT ALSO MORE REASONABLE IN A CONVECTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW
               REGIME.

-- 
==============================================================
Jesse Ferrell - Meteorologist/Web Dev. - j{at}weatherwatchers.org 
Central Atlantic Storm Investigators - www.weatherwatchers.org
"A tornado?  Why wasn't it dissipated by the weather 
modification net?"  --Jean-Luc Picard     || ICQ No. 136832 ||
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