From: SIU Weather Processor (ldm@lib.siu.edu)
Date: Thu Jun 15 2000 - 01:48:14 EDT
524
ACUS1 KMKC 150547
SWODY1
MKC AC 150546
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NNW PBG 30 W GFL 25 W MSV 15 ENE CXY 30 NW MRB 20 NNE MGW
30 N PIT 20 ENE ERI.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNE P28 40 S HLC 30 WSW EAR 30 WNW OFK 15 SW OTG 30 E MKT
25 N LSE 10 SE LNR 15 NW MLI 35 W UIN 30 SSE OJC 45 WSW CNU
20 NNE P28.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W MIA PBI.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ENE HVR 35 SW OLF
40 W DIK 50 ENE Y22 60 N ATY BRD 50 NNW IWD 45 N CMX.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DAB 45 N PIE.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S 7R4 25 NNE LFT
10 NE ESF 40 N POE 15 ESE LFK 25 E CLL 40 WSW CLL 10 E TPL
40 NE ACT 40 NNW GGG 35 NNW ELD MEM 25 NE HOP 40 SE DAY 35 NNE CLE.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DTW FWA
20 SSE BMI 25 WNW STL 35 NE SGF 35 ENE TUL 35 WNW OKC 35 NNW CSM
35 ESE LBL 25 NW GCK 40 E LIC 50 NW 4FC 20 W BPI 40 W BTM
45 NNW FCA.
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
...NERN U.S...
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SPEED MAX LIFTING INTO SERN
PROVINCES OF CANADA WILL INDUCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER
CONVERGENCE OVER PA/NY DURING THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES WEDGE OF COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS IN PLACE
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH SIGNIFICANT ELY COMPONENT OBSERVED.
TRAJECTORIES FROM THIS RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIKELY
SUPPRESS SEVERE THREAT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
PERIOD.
MODERATELY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST WITHIN BROAD
BAND FROM TN VALLEY INTO NERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. OF SOME
CONCERN IS THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WITH
LAPSE RATES GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM OR LESS. THIS
SUGGESTS SURFACE-BASED CAPE WILL HOLD IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE
AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS FROM TN/OH VALLEY REGION ADVECTS NEWD
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON WITH EVOLUTION INTO MULTIPLE LINE
SEGMENTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING BOW ECHOES. MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD INHIBIT LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
NWLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM PACIFIC NW INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING PERIOD AS LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES
IN RESPONSE TO WWD-MOVING RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME OVER THE SRN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION BY LATE IN PERIOD. EARLY THIS
MORNING TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS HAD BEEN DISPLACED SWD
INTO CNTRL/ERN TX WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S.
IT APPEARS NWD RETURN OF THIS AIR MASS WILL OCCUR...BUT NOT UNTIL
LATE IN PERIOD OVER CNTRL PLAINS. NWLY FLOW OVER CNTRL ROCKIES
WILL ALLOW PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
NEB/KS INTO IA/NRN MO. DESPITE SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THIS
REGION IT SEEM REASONABLE TO EXPECT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES LATE IN PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD AS COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO KS/NRN MO. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO HAIL.
..DARROW.. 06/15/00
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to
LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU
with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more
information see
see http://ralph.centerone.com/wxlist
or write chris@siu.edu.
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Jun 17 2000 - 03:33:19 EDT