FXUS71 KPBZ 101939 SFDPIT STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH, PA 340 PM EDT WED JUN 09 1999 ********** NOTICE OF CHANGE JUN 15 ******************* STATE FCST DISCUSSION BECOMES AREA FCST DISCUSSION OLD NEW AFOS/NOAA WEATHER WIRE ID PITSFDPIT PITAFDPBZ WMO/FAMILY OF SERVICES ID FXUS71 KPBZ FXUS61 KPBZ ****************************************************** UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS EVENING, BUT LACKING SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT RESULT WILL BE DUE TO HEATING AND OROGRAPHICS. AS A RESULT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED, BUT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS DUE THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY, SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY RETURN BACK TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY, AS 500 MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE. STEVENS .PIT...NONE FXUS61 KCTP 101858 AFDCTP CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 250 PM EDT THU JUN 10 1999 A LITTLE BIT OF EVERYTHING IN THE SHORT TERM THIS FORECAST - STABLE AIR AND STRATUS...INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL TEMPS. FIRST...A STABLE LAYER OF AIR PERSISTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS MOIST SE WINDS MAINTAIN THE THICK STRATUS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. DRIER AIR RACING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY CLEAR SKIES IN NEW ENGLAND AND CLEARING SKIES IN NY/NJ. THE STRATUS/SHOWERS WILL BE TOUGH TO ERODE IN THE SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY TOWARD SUNRISE THE DRIER AIR SHOULD TAKE CONTROL. NEXT...QUITE UNSTABLE AIR LOCATED OVER WESTERN PA/EASTERN OH/WV WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 90S. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW DETECTED ON THE LDS AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS COULD AFFECT OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND WILL CARRY LOW POPS THERE. THIRD...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...CLEAR SKIES ARE THE STORY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE COOLED AND STABILIZED THE AIR. FOR FRIDAY...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS AROUND (MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER) BUT SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR ALL. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL FRI NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AND ANOTHER DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND WITH FLOW AGAIN TURNING FROM THE SOUTH. IN THE EXTENDED...RIDGE HOLDS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DO FOR NOW ON MON/TUE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH A TROUGH IN THE VICINITY TO THE WEST. .CTP...NONE. RXR FXUS71 KPHI 101808 SFDPHL STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 200 PM EDT WED JUN 9 1999 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE TO USERS OF THIS PRODUCT - EFFECTIVE 9 AM EDT JUNE 15 1999... THE STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOUNT HOLLY...NEW JERSEY WILL BECOME AN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...WITH A NEW WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION (WMO) HEADER AND NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE (NWWS) PRODUCT IDENTIFIER. PLEASE TAKE THE APPROPRIATE STEPS TO ENSURE YOUR CONTINUED RECEIPT OF THIS PRODUCT. OLD NEW WMO HEADER FXUS71 KPHI FXUS61 KPHI NWWS ID PHLSFDPHL PHLAFDPHI IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS REGARDING THIS CHANGE...PLEASE CONTACT METEOROLOGIST-IN-CHARGE GARY SZATKOWSKI AT 609-261-6600. --------------------------------------------------------------------- DRY AIR CONTG TO MV OVER THE REGION FROM THE NE AND CLOUDS ARE ALRDY DISSIPATING RPDLY. HIGH PRES THEN DOMINATES THROUGH SAT WITH LIGHT MARITIME FLOW. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WITH TEMPS ALMOST UNIFORM ACR THE AREA EXCEPT FOR AREAS CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH REMAIN COOLEST. FWC GUIDANCE OK. WRKZFP AVBL. .PHI...SCA CONTD NJ/DE COASTS AND LWR DE BAY. RNS FXUS61 KCTP 101441 AFDCTP CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1030 AM EDT THU JUN 10 1999 LOWEST/THICKEST CLOUDS MAINLY EAST OF TUSSEY MOUNTAIN (BASICALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF A KAOO/KUNV/KIPT LINE). WITH VERY MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW FUNNELING INTO THE REGION...THESE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY TODAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST TO THE JERSEY SHORE KICKED OFF SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS MORNING. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL PA. WILL EXTEND THE 30 POP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN HALF. AS SHORTWAVE GOES BY...CLOUDS ALREADY BREAKING UP IN WESTERN NY STATE. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO BE HAD IF TEMPS WARM ENOUGH. BUT FIRST THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PA. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE 40 POPS THERE THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN LINE...SO NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. .CTP...NONE. RXR FXUS61 KPBZ 101432 AFDPBZ STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH, PA 1025 AM EDT WED JUN 09 1999 ********** NOTICE OF CHANGE JUN 15 ******************* STATE FCST DISCUSSION BECOMES AREA FCST DISCUSSION OLD NEW AFOS/NOAA WEATHER WIRE ID PITSFDPIT PITAFDPBZ WMO/FAMILY OF SERVICES ID FXUS71 KPBZ FXUS61 KPBZ ****************************************************** CURRENT FORECAST OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS GOOD. CURRENT RADAR HAS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTOTMS TO THE EAST OF CWA ASSOC WITH EXITING SHORTWAVE. MODIFIED SOUNDING HAS B+ 1400 AND LI -5. PW 1.3. WINDS LIGHT SO ANY TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS AND SLOW MOVERS. .PIT...NONE