ZCZC MKCSWODY2 000
ACUS2 KMKC 011802
KMKC AC 011802

2ND DAY CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH98O.

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MARYLAND
AND VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.  THE AREA IS TO THE RIGHT
OF A LINE FROM DAN LYH SHD 20 N HGR 30 NNW CXY 25 W ABE ILG 35 S
NHK 40 SSE RIC 45 N RWI DAN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MYR
AND 30 ESE BNA OWB FDY 40 SE DTW ...CONT... 25 SW ART POU ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW MYR 20 NE AHN
40 WSW BNA TBN 15 ENE MHK MCK CAG 25 N U24 35 WSW ELY 25 W TPH
35 E BIH 25 SSW BIH 25 NE FAT 25 E SAC 40 NE RBL 60 N LMT 50 W YKM
30 E BLI ...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 25 ENE BIL RAP BKX 15 SSW CWA APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML 30 SW BHB.

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK/FAST MOVING IMPULSES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD.  A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
NOW OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.  MEANWHILE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...

THE EXIT REGION OF A 130-140 KNOT 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH
INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED ON THE 12Z ETA.  MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES STRONG BY 03/00Z...WITH A 80 KNOT 500 MB WIND MAX NEAR CVG
AND 40-60 KNOT 500 MB WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES.  THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
WILL INDUCE A LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

USING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S...ETA FORECASTS MLCAPE OF ABOUT 2000
J/KG WITH BRN SHEAR AROUND 80 M2/S2.  VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
HEIGHT CREATE FAVORABLE CURVED HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS/
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

...EASTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE TO WESTERN NEW YORK...

ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE HIGHER OVER PORTIONS
OF THIS AREA THAN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  THIS AREA
WILL BE BEHIND SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND WEAK 12 HOUR 500 MB HEIGHT
RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THIS REGION.

HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ETA MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG...AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..CRAVEN.. 06/01/98

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