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                       SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

16 May 1998 - 14:58:28 UTC
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ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 161457
MKC AC 161457

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 161500Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JKL
30 NW HTS 15 W ZZV 35 NE CLE ERI JHW 25 SSW DUJ EKN BKW 20 NNW TRI
35 SE LOZ JKL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 10 NW ABQ RTN
DHT MAF 50 SSW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE 7R4 30 NE ESF
GWO CBM 30 W CSV 25 E LEX 45 W CLE ...CONT... ART 25 SE EWN
...CONT... 35 E SAV 20 NNE MGR PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW AST MSO
50 S GDV 50 NW CDR 40 WSW LAR TPH 15 SW SJC.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
VIGOROUS UPPER VORTICITY MAX HAS MOVED NNEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD TODAY AS MORE ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.  COLD FRONT
ARCING SWD FROM THE DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED NEAR THE COLD FRONT WITH MID TO UPPER 60S
DEW POINTS EVIDENT THIS MORNING.  ALTHOUGH PLUME OF SMOKE/HAZE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG FROM
ERN OH/WRN PA INTO PARTS OF WV AND ERN KY.  WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT COUPLED WITH CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT LIFT AND WEAKENING OF THE CAP FOR A FEW PARCELS TO REACH
THE LFC.  DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS OF 25-30 KT ALOFT...STRONG
INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.

..WEISS.. 05/16/98

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