[Image] SPC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 7 May 1998 - 06:09:40 UTC Please read disclaimer "for information regarding the availability and timeliness of forecasts and products. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000 ACUS1 KMKC 070600 MKC AC 070600 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O. VALID 071200Z - 081200Z REF WW NUMBER 0298...VALID TIL 0900Z REF WW NUMBER 0299...VALID TIL 1200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACRS PTNS OF XTRM NERN MS...MIDDLE/ERN TN...NRN AL AND CNTRL/NRN GA. THE MDT RISK IS LOCATED TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E MCN 30 SW MCN 20 N MGM 25 S CBM TUP 25 E MKL BNA 30 E CSV GSP 15 SE AGS 60 E MCN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JAX 15 S MAI 40 N MOB 30 NE HEZ 50 N GLH 30 SE PAH 20 E OWB 20 ESE LEX 20 E 5I3 15 SW DAN 30 N HAT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE GPT 20 SW HEZ 20 N SHV 30 ENE SPS 25 ESE AMA 30 WSW RTN 40 SE DRO 60 SSW 4BL 35 W IGM LAX ...CONT... 20 ENE 4BK 45 W BNO 25 E BKE 40 SE S80 40 SW 3DU 25 SSE LVM 35 W GCC 40 NW BFF 25 NE LBF 40 S OMA 50 W DSM 10 SE OTG 60 SSW FAR 50 N DVL ...CONT... 35 WNW INL 40 E BRD 35 W AUW 10 NNW MTW 30 E PLN. ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION... AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO SOUTHERN OHIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AIRMASS FROM MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES TO 2500 J/KG. VWP FROM WSR-88DS INDICATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS TO 55 KT OVER AREA. AS A RESULT...LARGE AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ...SOUTHEASTERN STATES... SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MID- AFTERNOON. BELIEVE CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OVER THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES. BEHIND THIS INITIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DESTABILIZE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGF SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATELY/VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM ALABAMA AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO GEORGIA. IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 80 KT OVER THIS AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY/ SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. ...HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND COLORADO... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND A SECOND COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREA. IN ADDITION...SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BELIEVE A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. AREA WILL NOT BE OUTLOOKED AT THIS TIME AS SEVERE THREAT FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. ..HOVIS.. 05/07/98 NNNN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Return to SPC Forecasts page Return to Storm Prediction Center page